Brazil stocks

m22au said:
"Brazil raises rates to highest level in 6 years"
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/20248226-eeca-11e4-a5cd-00144feab7de.html

and also a shorter summary here:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets-live/markets-live-investors-dump-banks-20150430-1mwi1c.html

Brazil has raised interest rates to the highest level in six years as the government struggles to regain investors' confidence and put Latin America's biggest economy back on the path to growth.

The country's central bank raised the benchmark Selic rate late on Wednesday by an expected 50 basis points to 13.25 per cent — the highest level since January 2009.

In a terse statement, the central bank said its unanimous decision to raise rates for the fifth consecutive meeting had considered "the macroeconomic outlook and perspectives for inflation", without adding further details.

While Brazil's economy is expected to contract by more than 1 per cent this year, marking the country's deepest recession for a quarter of a century, inflation has surged above the central bank's 4.5 per cent target.

In March inflation accelerated to 8.13 per cent on an annual basis. The central bank has already stated that there is a 90 per cent possibility that 2015 year-end inflation will exceed the upper limit of the target range — 6.5 per cent — for the first time since 2003.

"The 50 basis point rate hike was, in our assessment, consistent with the very challenging current and prospective inflation outlook," said Alberto Ramos at Goldman Sachs.

He added that the decision was also consistent with "abundant evidence of high and sticky services inflation, and recent statements by senior central bank officials that the progress achieved so far to drive inflation to the 4.50 per cent target by year-end 2016, albeit positive, was not yet sufficient".

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OMG again a new post ....
A Brazilian metal band would say you are BORN STUBBORN

Chris Mac
 
Chris Mac said:
OMG again a new post ....
A Brazilian metal band would say you are BORN STUBBORN

Chris Mac
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Thank you for your contribution. As a reminder, you previously posted:

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Chris Mac said:
But trade as you want ! Just go all-in, feel free to test your theories!
This is my last message here, good luck with your trades!
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So your claim of being 'born stubborn' would be better suited to you.

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m22au said:
The economy of Brazil isn't doing very well: low economic growth,

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-29/brazils-economy-just-imploded
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-30/brazils-economy-verge-total-collapse

and the central bank of Brazil is raising interest rates to combat inflation.

http://www.bcb.gov.br/?ENGLISH
http://www.bcb.gov.br/textonoticia.asp?codigo=3895&IDPAI=NEWS

I'm starting this thread to think out loud about Brazil stocks that could be good shorting opportunities.

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Update: The Brazil ETF (ticker EWZ ) broke below its 13 March 2015 low of $28.30 in late July. On Friday 14 August, it closed at $26.29.

No positions in EWZ or Brazil stocks as yet.

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Chris Mac said:
SID : what do you want to do with? Be long I assume?
Because you got a nice triple bottom + a divergent rising RSI
I suppose you don't want to short a stock which is already down -72% for the last year and where all sellers already sold?

Chris Mac
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As mentioned previously on 19 April, stocks that fall by 72% can still fall another 99%. In late July, SID broke below its 52-week low of $1.447 and closed at $0.97 on 14 August.

Therefore, "all sellers" had not yet sold before 7 April.

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m22au said:
As mentioned previously on 19 April, stocks that fall by 72% can still fall another 99%. In late July, SID broke below its 52-week low of $1.447 and closed at $0.97 on 14 August.

Therefore, "all sellers" had not yet sold before 7 April.

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Well, you just forgot to mention a +60% rebound when you praised for a sell mid-April.
Shorting at a bottom with a diverging positive RSI was silly, is silly and will be silly.
Story was quite different 3 weeks later. SID failed to break his daily 200 MA at USD2.9 (cf graph). When you short, timing is key if you don't want to go broke fast. Timing separates winners from losers.

And shorting NOW this stock is again a bad idea. Probabilities are against you, and again RSI get a positive divergence.
SID can go easily at 1.5 dollars, even 2 dollars for any reason.

sid us 2.gif

CM
 
m22au said:
No it wasn't

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At least someone reads your posts! You should be happy.
And with your "clairvoyance" and "nice" tips, you will reach rapidly 4k messages and 5 likes, and still 0.0 dollars in your virtual account. Bravo.
Or maybe you will change your behavior and try to understand what pros look at to make money? And make money too? Your choice.

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
Well, you just forgot to mention a +60% rebound when you praised for a sell mid-April.
Shorting at a bottom with a diverging positive RSI was silly, is silly and will be silly.
Story was quite different 3 weeks later. SID failed to break his daily 200 MA at USD2.9 (cf graph). When you short, timing is key if you don't want to go broke fast. Timing separates winners from losers.

And shorting NOW this stock is again a bad idea. Probabilities are against you, and again RSI get a positive divergence.
SID can go easily at 1.5 dollars, even 2 dollars for any reason.

View attachment 155793
CM
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No, shorting SID at $1.447 was a good idea, and it was also a good idea to short the stock at Friday's close of $0.97. It's down over 10% since then to $0.87.

Maybe it's possible that some traders have different timeframes, risk/return profiles and strategies to you.

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