Bottom was 17th march
- Thread starter fortuna
- Start date
we reached all time highs in the major US indices last year based on super inflated housing prices which in turn made the average US consumer much richer.
those housing prices have crashed, the consumer is insanely in debt, w out the ability to borrow due to credit crunch and worse rates for those who can borrow.
on top of that we're in a recession, and there are large amounts of layoffs in addition to rising inflation.
so, your thesis is we're going to go even higher in the indices now?
ok, makes sense
Markets bottom on bad news. Bears were given a sharp stick in the eye both last Monday and this Tuesday. How have they responded? By sticking their tail between their legs and watching the gains hold while they drone on about how fundamentally bad things are out there.
Quote from cmdtytrdr:
we reached all time highs in the major US indices last year based on super inflated housing prices which in turn made the average US consumer much richer.
those housing prices have crashed, the consumer is insanely in debt, w out the ability to borrow due to credit crunch and worse rates for those who can borrow.
on top of that we're in a recession, and there are large amounts of layoffs in addition to rising inflation.
so, your thesis is we're going to go even higher in the indices now?
ok, makes sense
)
My 2 cents,
The bears essentially gave up today, but, this is by no means, at least in my opinion, the prelude to a new bull market on stocks.
We actually needed the incredible amount of short interest to go away , before we can put some serious devaluation into stocks.
Being a wave bug myself, i suspect a top around 1420-1430. This would get almost everyone bullish again, and pave the way for both vix and cpc to show alot of complacency, kinda like late december.
I actually thought the top had been achieved yesterday, and today i had to hedge my positions ... but the good trade is still being prepared ( the trend, remember .... not some abc dead cat correction ) ... sort of a may-april 2001 reprise
Disclaimer: I took short positions yesterday on 3 stock indexes and hedged them out today, so what i say may be tainted by these directional bets.
The bears essentially gave up today, but, this is by no means, at least in my opinion, the prelude to a new bull market on stocks.
We actually needed the incredible amount of short interest to go away , before we can put some serious devaluation into stocks.
Being a wave bug myself, i suspect a top around 1420-1430. This would get almost everyone bullish again, and pave the way for both vix and cpc to show alot of complacency, kinda like late december.
I actually thought the top had been achieved yesterday, and today i had to hedge my positions ... but the good trade is still being prepared ( the trend, remember .... not some abc dead cat correction ) ... sort of a may-april 2001 reprise
Disclaimer: I took short positions yesterday on 3 stock indexes and hedged them out today, so what i say may be tainted by these directional bets.