Bottom was 17th march

F

fortuna

Hi Folks,

There is a high risk reward trade going long stocks market, long dollar, short bonds and sell VIX and enjoy the ride for a good year.

I like reading Hays and I think he was too optimistic about the bank mess. But sentiment indicators, monetary injections and 50% under valuation for spx (fed model) show the right direction . BE long...


happy to help u making money

US is a great country
 
I kind of agree but no way i'm going long till banks report earnings. I don't mind missing some of the ride to avoid that stress.

Do you really want to have a bunch of long positions on 4/17, when Citigroup announces Q1 earnings before the 4/18 bell?
 
Quote from fortuna:

and 50% under valuation for spx
More...

The Shanghai market is actually cheaper when adjusted for the repo rate. The SPX is expensive and future earnings estimates are still grossly inflated.
 
well i also agree spx is not the cheapest index dax, cac hshares are much cheaper


if you want to make some refinement, go long us exporters


stocks I like

in europe:

abb, roche, total, vinci, syngenta

in us:

amgen is cheap, intc, HON, appl, goog, mon
 
Quote from fortuna:

Hi Folks,

There is a high risk reward trade going long stocks market, long dollar, short bonds and sell VIX and enjoy the ride for a good year.

I like reading Hays and I think he was too optimistic about the bank mess. But sentiment indicators, monetary injections and 50% under valuation for spx (fed model) show the right direction . BE long...


happy to help u making money

US is a great country
More...

can you explain a little bit more about how you used the fed model in this calculation?
 
We could have hit a short term support area. Euro reported worse case situation with the Financial Loss at 600 billion world wide.

So we now have a "Worst Case" figuer.

I still think massive layoffs are coming to the Banking Sector, Broker Sector. I would guess to say about 50% of their "Work Force" will be gone.

Financials are going to "thin" down, Mortgage companies are as well. That whole sector is about to get shook up.

But, We could very well rally from this point on, towards new highs of the Decade.
 
There is one little miniscule part of the equation of all your "valuations" that is missing. Please explain where the consumer spending will come from. Last I checked, they have not been helped one ioata in all this mess, but have had the benefit of paying alot more for just about everything through the beautiful silent tax known as inflation.
 
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