Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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Quote from JamesVU2000:

sure you could. a five point move down.
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I started trading the 30 year in 1994. I could be wrong, but I don't think I've ever seen a 5 point move in one day. I wasn't trading during any of the huge event days (i.e. 9/11), so I don't recall what we had on those days. It would be nice of course.:)

In any event, the final result of today is exactly what I expected and what I wrote about earlier. What a head fake to exit my initial position where I did!

In conclusion, while it wasn't a 5 point move down, it was certainly 2 points and that is almost as good as it gets.
 
Wow, a 1225 print on the ES and we didn't collapse. My line in the sand for the ES was 1235, i.e. below that and all bets were off regarding the rally I felt for sure was coming in the ES, hence my strong desire to short the bonds heavily. My thoughts were we would have a sell bonds to buy stocks kind of a day, but after the initial trade of the day I was leery of that assessment. I still don't think that scenario happened, but at least we got 2 of the 4 points I was looking for, albeit a lot quicker.
 
14 July 2008 0421 CST

My bias is to the short side today, however, considering the move on Friday one would be wise to be cautious and pick entries carefully. My best guess for today is that we will stay in a range due to the lack of news.

My large daily numbers are:

115 31
114 22

I may post more detailed numbers if time permits. Suffice it to say that I would initially look to sell the higher number and buy the lower number. I would say that the above two numbers are good each for a single trade of the day.

My initial impression is that today will be a solid day to scalp 6 - 8 ticks throughout the day.
 
0851 CST I just woke up now and see that my post was off. A full point move is not a scalp day. Obviously selling at 115 31 would have been stopped out for a loss for me.
 
0900 CST

My update now is to watch:

116 07
115 31

It is too late to make this trade, but I would have bought at 0850 looking for 116 16. It looks like we will hit it.
 
0903 CST

We are now completely out of the level of my day trading range numbers, i.e. the more detailed numbers I mentioned earlier that I haven't posted.

That will be it from me until tomorrow. The 4 numbers I've posted are still useful for today, however the usual caveats apply. What is price doing at the time of the approach? etc etc.
 
16 July 2008

0812 CST Levels for today at current prices

116 12
116 06
115 28

A break below the mid-point and I would target the next level, i.e. 115 28 etc.
 
FYI, we have already had two ideal textbook shorts at 116 17 and 116 15, roughly 0745 and 0758 (if you were brave enough), so this third one bears watching.

My thoughts are we will have a multi-day hold if one were so inclined. I've been bitten so many times in the past holding overnight that I tend to not do it. I must say though that over the last few weeks I've held 2 to 4 lots overnight on occasion and only got burned once.
 
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