Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

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0829 CST

Per my previous journals, I took most of my position off at the double 00's. Holding small size and will add to this position (short) all the way up to 116 08.

Obviously, watching the ES and looking closely at strength (none present so far) in the 10 year and 30 year which may call off this final assessment.
 
Thinking out loud:

Reasons for thinking short so late in the move:

1) ES is holding up very well on the hourly.
2) Bonds are due for a 2 - 4 point down move.
3) We've broken fairly major daily and hourly chart support today.

Reasons why I may be wrong:

1) It is late in the move.
2) What the heck is going on in the stock market, i.e. bankruptcies, etc etc?
3) Item 2 leads to a flight to quality.
4) Middle East (when is this not an item?)
 
0838 CST

I'm getting ready to wrap up my posting.

I'm thinking of taking most if not all off on this final test of 115 31. If we don't break through it decisively then that will be it for me. I think we will see lower prices but at this time with more than three successful shorts under my belt, I will be cautious.

As far as lower targets I have:

115 28 and 115 10.

Good trading!
 
The time for the above was between 1011 and 1014 CST. In any event I'm posting my target. I'm short an 8 lot. I may start peeling off some on the way down just to be safe. I didn't get 114 16 as an entry.

More later.
 
So to conclude the previous trade, I had a late entry at 114 130. Once that occurs, you really can't shoot for your standard ticks returned trade. You have to adjust. My standard is 4 - 6 ticks. 6 ticks from the ideal entry of 114 16 (in a perfect world) is 114 10, hence I started to get out when we had that brief kiss and bounce back off of the lows.
 
1030 hrs CST

Looks like I missed another classic short at 114 16 again. Darn! You know I've talked about redemption days and how important they are. Well, we've had redemption weeks off and on over the last few months. This week certainly qualifies for a redemption week.
 
Since about 0900 you've been able to simply short the lower end of a rectangular S/R on a 1 minute to 3 minute chart of the ZB.

So, now at 1033 what do we do? Go for another short or wait? I've already bagged my limit for today so I may just stand aside.

FWIW, I still think 114 00 is a solid target for today, even though we are fairly over sold.
 
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