Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

Status
Not open for further replies.
I'm looking at the 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min chart of the ZB. We had a classic waterfall downward pattern. Approximately 1 full point in the ZB. You couldn't ask for a better move.
 
116 11 followed by 116 05 are the next targets. After that, learning from our earlier mistake it gets dangerous to hold too much size or initiate additional shorts. Sure we could go down another point, but let's stick with reality.
 
OK, now that is more like it. I got back in short (1042 CST) at 116 22, 116 21 and 116 20. I was able to get 116 155 and 116 145 on my exit around 1100 CST.

Not quite as good as my earlier trade that I flubbed. That was close to a 16 tick trade on a single lot! Emphasis on was.
 
1114 CST I may short again here at 116 15 for the trip down to 116 05, but I'm not sure. Buying/Selling breaks through S/R especially late in the game don't always work.
 
I got in at 116 130 on a 2 lot during the above post. This may not be a good move due to it being late in the day. I'm looking for a break of 116 105.

In retrospect, as I was posting and missed the 116 105 print, I think it may have been a good target as the ideal entry on this trade was 116 16. Exiting at 116 11 would be 5 ticks profit which is really good for a third trade of the day, very late in the run.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

So, anyone have any thoughts on holding bond shorts over the weekend? I'd like to but per my earlier post this week has not been kind to shorting.
More...

hi john,

guess it is a good idea. we have some inflation numbers coming out and people will be scared to death. even if numbers come better than expected they will still be bad.
i am also slowly adding 2009 fed fund futures as a likelyhood of big fed move is getting higher - call it a black swan.

however i do have a commodity protection if something happens in middle east...

gl
 
wow - what a move now.

to make my previous post clearer - i believe fed will have to hike big as inflation will be much worse than what they expect. i was not clear in my previous post.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

I'm looking at the 1 min, 3 min, and 5 min chart of the ZB. We had a classic waterfall downward pattern. Approximately 1 full point in the ZB. You couldn't ask for a better move.
More...

sure you could. a five point move down.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top