I couldn't resist at 0941 I shorted a 4 lot of ZB's at 106 25. Looking for 106 19 to 106 21.
Very hard to post and trade today. Very hard!
Very hard to post and trade today. Very hard!
Bond Trader 2007
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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0949 CST Out at 106 23 on the spike up. OK, this is happening too much. Posting is impacting me in a very negative way today. We kissed 106 20.
I'm done. See you next week.
I'm done. See you next week.
The above times and price levels were known at a minimum, 24 hours in advance.
For your further study, I've included two charts. The first one has vertical lines marking all posted times. In addition, following in MoveTimer's footsteps, I've included horizontal lines that intersect the time points. I've included blue ellipses by the significant intersection points.
The second chart shows only the early important points of the day.
For now, I'll call this the point where price and time collide. How's that for drama? Sorry, I've had so much drama today I feel like Bruce Willis. Keeping up with the Bruce Willis theme of today, borrowing a phrase from "Hostage", I think you'll see after looking at the two charts, that, yes, I am the guy.
I apologize in advance for the humour. I think after a glorious, Monday - Wednesday, followed by the troubles I had on Thursday and Friday I'm entitled to a little fun.
Second chart.
By the way, I had an epiphany around 1035. I was short 6 ZB's from 106 25 to 106 26. I knew 106 26 was extremely important based on previous turning point S/R studies I had done from a few days ago. Since 1004, the low called by my time, I had waited patiently for this moment. Then we break above. We start going through a dance with 106 26 to 106 28. I then quickly add the horizontal line from my 0724 time. I take a look at my hourly turning point chart, and finally I look at my 5 min turning point chart. All had been long since the 0644 horizontal line was broken. I exited and reversed at 106 28. My exit on this reversal was 107 01.
The epiphany? Right at that moment, while in the short at 106 25/26, I could have held on, and risked to 106 31. I even thought about doing it. Since right at that time, I believed the trade to be a standard "sell the retracement" type of trade, I had only been focusing on the simple 1 min MACD chart. I had neglected to keep track of my more complex turning point charts and their levels. Had I done so, I would have seen that they were long since 106 23. In fact, the hourly is so strong that when it violates a level like that, it will almost always go to the next level which in this case was just above 107 01.
Right at that point in time, I said to myself, you've just solved the "V" day problem.
Next week, I will probably not post real-time. I will post the pre-market commentary. I will be trading only times and S/R next week. This week I threw in a lot of discretionary trades followed by large size when the times, and price levels came together. By the way, from now on I'll refer to this as a collision point (CP). I think if you go back and see, the CP trading completely blew away the hit or miss discretionary trades.
I want to thank MoveTimer for his journal. His observations on times and reactions are part of what led to my epiphany.
By the way, I had an epiphany around 1035. I was short 6 ZB's from 106 25 to 106 26. I knew 106 26 was extremely important based on previous turning point S/R studies I had done from a few days ago. Since 1004, the low called by my time, I had waited patiently for this moment. Then we break above. We start going through a dance with 106 26 to 106 28. I then quickly add the horizontal line from my 0724 time. I take a look at my hourly turning point chart, and finally I look at my 5 min turning point chart. All had been long since the 0644 horizontal line was broken. I exited and reversed at 106 28. My exit on this reversal was 107 01.
The epiphany? Right at that moment, while in the short at 106 25/26, I could have held on, and risked to 106 31. I even thought about doing it. Since right at that time, I believed the trade to be a standard "sell the retracement" type of trade, I had only been focusing on the simple 1 min MACD chart. I had neglected to keep track of my more complex turning point charts and their levels. Had I done so, I would have seen that they were long since 106 23. In fact, the hourly is so strong that when it violates a level like that, it will almost always go to the next level which in this case was just above 107 01.
Right at that point in time, I said to myself, you've just solved the "V" day problem.
Next week, I will probably not post real-time. I will post the pre-market commentary. I will be trading only times and S/R next week. This week I threw in a lot of discretionary trades followed by large size when the times, and price levels came together. By the way, from now on I'll refer to this as a collision point (CP). I think if you go back and see, the CP trading completely blew away the hit or miss discretionary trades.
I want to thank MoveTimer for his journal. His observations on times and reactions are part of what led to my epiphany.
Quote from MoveTimer:
Glad to hear that my journal helps you with bond trading too
Yes, your journal is an excellent read and study item for me.
0744 CST
An important time at 0715 gave us 107 04 as an important number.
I'm long now, but watching closely. My bias is slightly bullish. A break below 107 04 will lead me to short. Last Friday's levels are very important so far.
0748 CST The hourly target of 107 09 has been broken. I mentioned last week that a break above one level leads to a break above the next. The first level was 107 04. I didn't get in at 107 04, so I can't take my standard 4 ticks. I'll wait just a bit longer as I'm trying to favor a larger range this week.
An important time at 0715 gave us 107 04 as an important number.
I'm long now, but watching closely. My bias is slightly bullish. A break below 107 04 will lead me to short. Last Friday's levels are very important so far.
0748 CST The hourly target of 107 09 has been broken. I mentioned last week that a break above one level leads to a break above the next. The first level was 107 04. I didn't get in at 107 04, so I can't take my standard 4 ticks. I'll wait just a bit longer as I'm trying to favor a larger range this week.
0757 I reversed and am now short. 1 tick loss on the trade.
After this trade I will wait because we are in between the hourly range.
After this trade I will wait because we are in between the hourly range.
0803 CST As of Thursday and Friday of last week we've had a 7 hour cycle in effect. According to my calculations, we are at the peak of the cycle.
Price holding above 107 04 and breaking above 107 10 decisively negates the above observation.
Price holding above 107 04 and breaking above 107 10 decisively negates the above observation.
Out earlier for 2 tick loss. I'm going to wait and see. My important range so far for today is 107 04 to 107 10.
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