Correction, I shorted 2 ZB at 111 16 at 0853. The ZN trade is correct.
At the rate we are going on this trade, an entry of 111 16 or 111 17 doesn't matter.
Bond Trader 2007
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Correction, I shorted 2 ZB at 111 16 at 0853. The ZN trade is correct.
At the rate we are going on this trade, an entry of 111 16 or 111 17 doesn't matter.
Quote from dhpar:
Thanks - I started to have a feeling that I am missing something
my personal opinion is that this rally was a preparation for the next week (scary data and likely to come below concensus).
So, you are saying that you think my prediction for next week might be confirmed? Scary data sometimes means flight to quality, hence good for bonds.
0907 CST I'm sitting tight. This fluctuation between 111 14 to 111 17 is just the cost of doing business. I'll stay through trade up to 111 21. My gut feel is that we will head lower before higher.
Targets remain the same.
Targets remain the same.
possibly - but it depends
here is my thinking:
if data comes weak we already had a rally so where do we go? maybe another 10bips and that's it. if data comes strong then the hell breaks loose. Personally I doubt the later - my target for growth is to pick up in the 2nd Q07.
So what now - market will need to give back some gains in order to prepare for decent rally or for less severe drop. Also people will take profits + the short squeeze is over.
It is interesting to note today's LEI - all important pieces were on the strong side. What dragged it down was A. stock prices and B. consumer expectations (due to stock prices and gasoline). Therefore fundamentally everything seems to be set for strong 2-Q. In fact I would not be surprised we will have better than expected number already today from Philly Fed.....
0929 CST
Unbelievable day!
I couldn't post here. I couldn't access the site.
Here is what I did
0918 CST Sold 4 more ZN at 108 20
0916 CST Sold 2 more ZB at 111 14
0925 CST Bought 4 ZN back at 107 315
Holding 4 ZB and 4 ZN.
Target on the ZB is:
Buy 2 back 111 09
Buy 2 back 111 06
ZN is equivalent.
Unbelievable day!
I couldn't post here. I couldn't access the site.
Here is what I did
0918 CST Sold 4 more ZN at 108 20
0916 CST Sold 2 more ZB at 111 14
0925 CST Bought 4 ZN back at 107 315
Holding 4 ZB and 4 ZN.
Target on the ZB is:
Buy 2 back 111 09
Buy 2 back 111 06
ZN is equivalent.
Quote from dhpar:
one more thing.
I always like to look at the market via eurodollars - currently the market has already priced almost full 3 cuts within the next 14 months...that I call RICH
Thanks for the insight. Between you and Surdo, maybe I'll learn something about the fundamental longer term considerations. Bwaaa ha ha ha (maniacal I-will-then-rule-the-world laugh).
0935 CST Personally I think this is a sell, and ordinarily I would start selling again here, adding to my position, but I'm actually thinking of exiting and calling it a day. I'm sitting on roughly 400 dollars of unrealized gains. Every tick against me drops that amount. Decisions, decisions.
ZB is at 111 12 by the way.
ZB is at 111 12 by the way.
0939 CST Exited all ZN at 108 010. Holding ZB.
0943 CST Trying to take 111 12 for the ZB's. I want out now. We may go back to 111 16. I'll think about shorting there.
0943 CST Trying to take 111 12 for the ZB's. I want out now. We may go back to 111 16. I'll think about shorting there.
Ensign, belay that order! I'm sitting tight. I've got to go with my gut. I've done well enough this week that I can afford to give some back.
Please note that while my bias is short, I am cautiously short. I now as of this minute think that we will kiss the lows one more time today. I would love to buy between 111 03 and 111 07 but probably won't. The time commitment to manage the trade might be a few hours.
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