zf trader,
I would say that concisely describes what happens. Sounds good enough for me.
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Bond Trader 2006
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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zf trader,
I would say that concisely describes what happens. Sounds good enough for me.
On Friday night for me (which is 0930 CST), after seeing The Sentinel, I came back home and sold short 2 ZB's at 110 23. I mention the trade only because I believe this is the third time this year I have attempted a long term (days) hold on a position due to my belief that a high is in place. In addition, it appears that this is the only time this year I have held overnight successfully.
Finally, as I'm still holding the 2 ZB's shorts I elected to trade around them via the ZN's. This morning's activity from 0700 to 0830 CST was very strange for me so I didn't go short immediately, which was my bias coming in.
At 0855 I took on my first position in the ZN's selling at 107 035. I continued to add to my position stopping at 14 ZN's short. My target was 106 315. I exited most at 107 000, and the rest at 106 315.
Finally, as I'm still holding the 2 ZB's shorts I elected to trade around them via the ZN's. This morning's activity from 0700 to 0830 CST was very strange for me so I didn't go short immediately, which was my bias coming in.
At 0855 I took on my first position in the ZN's selling at 107 035. I continued to add to my position stopping at 14 ZN's short. My target was 106 315. I exited most at 107 000, and the rest at 106 315.
1000 CST Looking to go short again in the ZN's for a price of 106 315 or better. We may get as high as 107 010 so be careful with your stop. Whenever my first trade of the day is successful, especially if the ticks are more than 6 per contract, I'm reluctant to place large size on the second trade of the day.
Remember my rule is that I'm good for 1 - 3 trades and then I call it a day.
Remember my rule is that I'm good for 1 - 3 trades and then I call it a day.
1021 CST Looking to short soon. This will be a quick trade with small size. It is a no news day so follow through to the downside may not happen.
1046 CST If you got in at 107 000 look to get out quickly if we don't move lower soon.
1046 CST If you got in at 107 000 look to get out quickly if we don't move lower soon.
1051 CST Calling it a day. I've exceeded my normal trading time of less than 3 hours. I'll take whatever I get to include a small loss. Looks like I'll be able to capture a tick or two.
1056 All in all a very remarkable day. I'll hold my ZB's with a profit stop just in case. Out of all ZN's for small profit on second trade of day.
1056 All in all a very remarkable day. I'll hold my ZB's with a profit stop just in case. Out of all ZN's for small profit on second trade of day.
Quote from johnpinochet:
1051 CST Calling it a day. I've exceeded my normal trading time of less than 3 hours. I'll take whatever I get to include a small loss. Looks like I'll be able to capture a tick or two.
1056 All in all a very remarkable day. I'll hold my ZB's with a profit stop just in case. Out of all ZN's for small profit on second trade of day.
John, nice journal.
On the long term chart, 4.82 seems to be very strong resistance.
I saw $TNX pushed to 4.81 today and get rejected there.
When you short(day trade) today, did you observe the long term resistance on $TNX?
Quote from intertrader888:
John, nice journal.
On the long term chart, 4.82 seems to be very strong resistance.
I saw $TNX pushed to 4.81 today and get rejected there.
When you short(day trade) today, did you observe the long term resistance on $TNX?
intertrader888,
No I haven't been watching $TNX. I've seen suggestions to watch the yield as a chart, but I've never done it. I took a look at the chart for $TNX and I do see a lot of possibilities for incorporating it into my system.
Thanks for sharing!
I'm expecting some very wild swings in price this week. As I've mentioned, I'm holding my 2 ZB's short since 110 23. I have a profit stop in just in case.
Keep in mind that I've been wrong about my long term position trades twice in a row since January of this year.
Plan of action for the week:
a. Trade around the ZB's with the ZN's as I did yesterday.
b. In the event that we re-visit 110 23 before breaking 110 00, I'll exit via the profit stop and look to go short again.
c. Any visit to 109 23 before Friday may result in closing the trade. 1,000 USD per contract for a daytrader is few and far between. Pretty much never.
d. Depending on where price is just before the CPI on Friday, I may exit completely. No sense in giving up profit on a spike back up to 110 23. Generally speaking if price is anywhere near 110 17 to 110 00 just before the report, it probably is best to exit. Capture your profit, and trade the spike with a clean slate. Friday should be ripe for daytrading.
Keep in mind that I've been wrong about my long term position trades twice in a row since January of this year.
Plan of action for the week:
a. Trade around the ZB's with the ZN's as I did yesterday.
b. In the event that we re-visit 110 23 before breaking 110 00, I'll exit via the profit stop and look to go short again.
c. Any visit to 109 23 before Friday may result in closing the trade. 1,000 USD per contract for a daytrader is few and far between. Pretty much never.
d. Depending on where price is just before the CPI on Friday, I may exit completely. No sense in giving up profit on a spike back up to 110 23. Generally speaking if price is anywhere near 110 17 to 110 00 just before the report, it probably is best to exit. Capture your profit, and trade the spike with a clean slate. Friday should be ripe for daytrading.
0751 CST Sold 2 ZN 106 295.
I have increasing sell orders up through 107 010. I'm looking to put on a lot of size around that area. If I can't get in then at least I have this probe trade going on.
UPDATE
0759 I'm looking to sell 2 more ZN's at 106 295 to get my position up to a 2 contract ZB equivalent. We look pretty weak at the moment, but 107 000 still possible. Looks like we have some resistance at 106 300 - 106 310 based on the hourly.
Profit target:
Yesterday's low of 106 270 to today's low of 106 255.
I have increasing sell orders up through 107 010. I'm looking to put on a lot of size around that area. If I can't get in then at least I have this probe trade going on.
UPDATE
0759 I'm looking to sell 2 more ZN's at 106 295 to get my position up to a 2 contract ZB equivalent. We look pretty weak at the moment, but 107 000 still possible. Looks like we have some resistance at 106 300 - 106 310 based on the hourly.
Profit target:
Yesterday's low of 106 270 to today's low of 106 255.
Quote from johnpinochet:
0751 CST Sold 2 ZN 106 295.
I have increasing sell orders up through 107 010. I'm looking to put on a lot of size around that area. If I can't get in then at least I have this probe trade going on.
UPDATE
0759 I'm looking to sell 2 more ZN's at 106 295 to get my position up to a 2 contract ZB equivalent. We look pretty weak at the moment, but 107 000 still possible. Looks like we have some resistance at 106 300 - 106 310 based on the hourly.
What do you think the potential upside from here for the 10 yr is in the event the fed pauses again on the 20th?
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