Bond Trader 2006

[johnpinochet]

Quote from scriabinop23:

What do you think the potential upside from here for the 10 yr is in the event the fed pauses again on the 20th?

Keeping in mind that I'm not good at long term predictions per earlier posts, I think we are headed lower regardless of what the Fed does on the 20th.

It is a cyclic thing.

That being said, if we drop between now and the 20th, it is possible that we could retest our recent highs over the last two months if the Fed pauses again. Even so, I think the move up will be short lived. I think we'll see 104 and change before we see 110 and change in the 10 year bond.

 

[johnpinochet]

Update
0808 CST I sold 2 more ZN's 106 295

It looks like we may re-test the lows soon. I had hoped for 107 010 in order to put on many more contracts, but it looks like we won't get there.

This is an excellent example of not being married to price levels. Only use them as a guide.

 

[johnpinochet]

0830 Sold 4 more ZN's 106 290.

I'm done selling for awhile. I'll add multiples if we go up with the last set of contracts sold at 107 010.

My trading today is operating under the premise of a range bound day. I'll do this for no more than 3 hours.

UPDATE
0833 So far so good. We need to break the 106 270 print for this to feel right.

106 270 being yesterday's low. Psychological signficance.

UPDATE
0841 This is always an interesting time when price flirts with a signficant price point. Do you take what you can get or do you hold out for a break? The answer: take half off.

I'm going to hold a little longer. My 2nd trade yesterday that was essentially a scratch actually made decent money had I waited.

UPDATE
0845 During any break below 106 270, as we approach 106 255, I'll be reducing my size. There is no more news today. Take what you can get between 106 265 and 106 255 and be done with it.

 

[Surdo]

1PM ET 10-Year Note Auction

 

[Lance Carson]

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18

 

[johnpinochet]

0852 Bought 4 ZN's 106 270.

UPDATE
0853 Closed out the remaining 4 ZN's at 106 270.

Hard to say how much further we will go. The price behaviour reminds me of every other time that the market has a signficant Friday report coming up.

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from Surdo:

1PM ET 10-Year Note Auction

Surdo,

Oops! Mea culpa.

Generally speaking I don't stay up that late, i.e. 1PM CST is 3AM for me.

So what are your thoughts on activity over the next few days? You usually wait for the best price looking for the larger moves, correct?

 

[johnpinochet]

Quote from Lance Carson:

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18

Lance,

Good to hear from you. I always look forward to your posts on the other thread. This thread too, by the way!

Do you think we will have further downside action today, or is your short term observation of 106-18 through Friday?

 

[johnpinochet]

0906 CST I forgot to mention that I closed all orders to short at various levels approaching 107 010. I may call it a day. All depends on what I see over the next hour or so.

 

[luckyhonda]

Quote from Lance Carson:

December 10 Year Notes: The market is headed down to 105. Short term downside target is 106-18

Do you have any short term support level or targets for the 30yrs?

Thanks
Luc