Bond Trader 2006

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Pull up a weekly ZB chart to get an idea of how far this might go.

May carefully add larger size soon.

Strategy for today:

Buy the dips.
Probably won't go short, at least initially.
Take all profit at 111 12.

UPDATE
0823 CST I've decided to exit all at 111 01.

UPDATE
0825 CST I got spooked by something I saw in the time and sales and in the chart. I'm still looking to go long again and will add more size.

UPDATE
0829 CST It looks like we will probe a lower range of a rectangle momentarily. Range will be 110 31 - 111 03.

UPDATE
0833 CST Spidey sense saves the day again! Aren't you glad you didn't take on a 10 lot long at 111 02 in anticipation of the break higher?

UPDATE
0835 CST Price activity has been so "back and forth" these days that I wouldn't be surprised to see a kiss of yesterday's high, 110 26. Initially I would be looking at going long there with a tight stop. If we consolidate in this rectangle for a bit, we may break the 111 03 high on a second attempt.

UPDATE
0839 CST Will R1 prove important? Let's see.
 
0849 CST Bought 1 ZB 111 00.

Testing the waters. I'm biased to the long side. I'd like to buy around 110 28, but I'm getting a neural net signal now so I'll take it.

UPDATE
0852 CST Bought 1 ZB 111 00.

UPDATE
0855 CST Bought 2 ZB 111 00.

Stopping for now. This isn't low risk. Looking for break of 111 03. No break then I'm out, hopefully for 1 tick or break even.

UPDATE
0859 CST Quarterly Services Survey out in 1 minute. Probably no impact.

UPDATE
0907 CST ZN's just broke day's high. I'm looking for a minimum of 4 ticks profit hopefully more.

Profit target is 111 12 based on weekly highs.

Possible target of 111 18 based on my price projection number algorithm.
 
0924 CST Closed all 4 ZB's 110 31. Tried for 111 00 but no fill. Price action is poor. We may still go higher, hard to say, hence exit trade.

UPDATE
0931 Trying to sell 10 ZN's at 107 100, but no fill. I won't chase this trade.

UPDATE
0932 Sold 10 ZN 107 100.

Need to be careful. May reverse at 107 110.

UPDATE
0939 Target is 107 080 on ZN. If you are in ZB then the target is 110 27.

UPDATE
0944 I exited all ZN's at 107 100. Price action is simply a rectangle since 0820. I'm sitting out for a while.
 
1007 CST Done for the day. It is hard to make money on a day like today so take what you can get.

We may have a spike later in the day but when you have reports due out on Thursday and Friday, why bother with a day like today?

FYI, trade of the day was going long between 0710 and 0720. No brainer due to the move yesterday, as well as no reports at 0730. That move was worth 7 ticks vs the 4 that I got on my first trade today.

If we consolidate here 110 28 or so, we may make another run for the high.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

1007 CST Done for the day. It is hard to make money on a day like today so take what you can get.

We may have a spike later in the day but when you have reports due out on Thursday and Friday, why bother with a day like today?

FYI, trade of the day was going long between 0710 and 0720. No brainer due to the move yesterday, as well as no reports at 0730. That move was worth 7 ticks vs the 4 that I got on my first trade today.

If we consolidate here 110 28 or so, we may make another run for the high.
More...

John,

How do you expect the treasury budget number at 1 pm CT impact trading today? Thanks.
 
Quote from intertrader888:

John,

How do you expect the treasury budget number at 1 pm CT impact trading today? Thanks.
More...

I think I mean to ask do you think the market has discounted good news already given ZN keeps going up for the past two days?
 
Quote from intertrader888:

I think I mean to ask do you think the market has discounted good news already given ZN keeps going up for the past two days?
More...

Impossible for me to say. Personally, given the reports coming out this Thursday, and especially this Friday, I think the price action of the 10 year (and 30 year) is range bound for today.

For excellent fundamental analysis, take a look at the "Bond rally nearing an end?" thread found here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=62388

Look for responses by mcurto, and Lance as well as surdo and a few others I can't remember at the moment. FYI, Lance and mcurto have made me money via reading and carefully thinking about their opinion.

Any fundamental analysis, or long term analysis should probably be directed there as those guys are the experts at that kind of stuff.

I think that Thursday and especially Friday will have large 16 tick tradeable moves in the 30 year. While the market is already closed, had I replied earlier, I would have written that one should always save their ammo for the best shot. Thursday and Friday will be the "best shot".
 
Excellent short between 1140 and 1245 CST when the market failed to break 111 02 and started coming down. Depending on entry this short was good for at least 5 ticks.

My reasons for not taking the trade: lateness in the day, CST lunch hour, better opportunity on Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Between 1000 and 1105 you had the second no brainer trade of the day. Prices stalled at 110 27 and would go no lower. Prices started drifting back up. You could have gotten in as late as 110 30 looking for at least 2 to 4 ticks for the attempt to break the high. Looking at the chart you'll see we stalled at 111 02. Given the reports to come out later this week you could have gotten out easily at 111 01 and waited for the excellent short described above.

So, the wrap up for today is that there where 2 trades within the trend established on Tuesday. A buy between 0700 and 0730, exiting when prices stalled at 111 03 followed by the above buy between 1000 and 1105.

How did you know to get out at 111 and change? Price stalled there. It was close to one of the Pivot numbers, and days like today are usually range bound due to the important reports coming out later in the week.
 
JP:

Thanks for the kind words, I really make it up as I go along and study charts all day and night. There are a bunch of smart traders on Tony's thread, and nobody ever flames on there which makes it a must read.

Good Trading!


el surdo
 
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