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Bond Trader 2006
- Thread starter johnpinochet
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If I'm able I'll post something here, but I think it would take a lot of time, i.e. finding each day, saving it to a JPEG, and posting here, one by one. I might be able to get the interesting ones though, perhaps I can start with this past Friday.
Quote from Lance Carson:
The clue was in the initial price action ( maybe you did not notice), the first five minutes the ZBZ traded from 111-08 all the way down to 110-25, a fifteen tics move, but it was NOT supposed to retrace more than fifty percent, if it was thruly going down. Then the second clue was the testing of the 110-22 support THREE times, the second should have penetrated if it was going to go down further, the last clue of a pending REVERSAL was the EIGHT TICS move UP from 110-22 ( lots of buyers waiting after the failiure to go thru support)
There seems to be a lot more "V" days lately. Technically, does this means that buyers are eager to jump in and portend more upsides to come? Or that people are more uncertain about the direction?
Luc
Quote from luckyhonda:
There seems to be a lot more "V" days lately. Technically, does this means that buyers are eager to jump in and portend more upsides to come? Or that people are more uncertain about the direction?
Luc
Luc,
I'll have to leave that question to Lance. I have no idea how to interpret them. I'm just working on getting the second half right.
Quote from KS96:
Can you please post a summary of your results so far?
KS96,
The results thus far would be meaningless as there would be no verification. The trades posted here are almost all real-time and easily verified.
Bottom line, my contract size is up, and my trading income is up. I'm happy with the trading methodology I've developed thus far. I would say almost anyone reading the entire journal can piece together what I do, with the exception of the S/R numbers and the neural network studies.
I'm performing a lot of data analysis via machine learning in order to remove myself from the picture completely. Unfortunately, there is a lot of intuition that goes into making a trade. You can't code intuition!
Thursday 07 September 2006
Today is a great day to discuss a setup that occurs regularly.
What did we know going in?
Bonds have been down 2 days in a row.
106 240 to 106 250 is a very important range.
Its a slow week, post Labor day.
Coming in I was biased to the short side. There were trades to be taken at 0200, 0500 and 0605 if you were so inclined. As there was a 0730 report I decided to wait and see.
0730 report. Nothing happens. See circle A.
0810 We hit 106 280. You could sell here. It is an important price point from past charts.
Take a look at circle B. This is where you should realize that something is "up". Pardon the pun. What happens when prices head lower from 106 280? Right, not much. This is the point where I completely reversed my bias to be long.
Guess where I went long? 106 250? 106 260? Nope, 106 300 as we broke through the 106 280 previous high. See circle C. This was to be a quick trade with 107 000 as a target. This was determined from glancing at an hourly chart and seeing resistance there.
What is the setup? Well, circle B and C are the setups. If you didn't get long at the low of circle B (the safest entry) you should have gone long as 106 280 was tested. If you missed both or didn't get filled at 106 280 then going long within circle C is your last chance. I tried to go long at 106 280 within the 0920 5 min bar, but as you can see we spiked up there so I had to raise my limit to 106 300 where I was filled.
I ended the trade exiting all contracts at 107 005. Yes, I left some money on the table, but that can't be helped. Right at the moment we were toying with 107 000 I had to leave my screen so I placed a stop limit and walked away. When I have a late entry, I like to get out quickly.
Today is a great day to discuss a setup that occurs regularly.
What did we know going in?
Bonds have been down 2 days in a row.
106 240 to 106 250 is a very important range.
Its a slow week, post Labor day.
Coming in I was biased to the short side. There were trades to be taken at 0200, 0500 and 0605 if you were so inclined. As there was a 0730 report I decided to wait and see.
0730 report. Nothing happens. See circle A.
0810 We hit 106 280. You could sell here. It is an important price point from past charts.
Take a look at circle B. This is where you should realize that something is "up". Pardon the pun. What happens when prices head lower from 106 280? Right, not much. This is the point where I completely reversed my bias to be long.
Guess where I went long? 106 250? 106 260? Nope, 106 300 as we broke through the 106 280 previous high. See circle C. This was to be a quick trade with 107 000 as a target. This was determined from glancing at an hourly chart and seeing resistance there.
What is the setup? Well, circle B and C are the setups. If you didn't get long at the low of circle B (the safest entry) you should have gone long as 106 280 was tested. If you missed both or didn't get filled at 106 280 then going long within circle C is your last chance. I tried to go long at 106 280 within the 0920 5 min bar, but as you can see we spiked up there so I had to raise my limit to 106 300 where I was filled.
I ended the trade exiting all contracts at 107 005. Yes, I left some money on the table, but that can't be helped. Right at the moment we were toying with 107 000 I had to leave my screen so I placed a stop limit and walked away. When I have a late entry, I like to get out quickly.
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John, I am new to this board although I have been trading ES/NQ/ER2 for a while with inconsistent performance.
Do you feel that bond is less manipulated than equity indices as some people claim?
Keep up the good work.
Do you feel that bond is less manipulated than equity indices as some people claim?
Keep up the good work.
Quote from intertrader888:
John, I am new to this board although I have been trading ES/NQ/ER2 for a while with inconsistent performance.
Do you feel that bond is less manipulated than equity indices as some people claim?
Keep up the good work.
intertrader888,
Welcome to the board and my journal.
I understand what people say about manipulation. I've watched the strange time and sales prints. I don't know enough of the background details to fully comment on what exactly is going on. Is it someone testing the waters? Is it really manipulation? I don't know. Bottom line, even if there is manipulation, I still see my patterns and setups with price action and the support and resistance numbers.
From my personal observation, I think if there is any manipulation in the bonds, it has more to do with running stops one way and then turning around and having price go in the reverse direction for a big move. Since I study past price behaviour at various key points I already know going in what to expect.
So, as a day trader, manipulation really has no impact for me. If it exists, it is simply par for the course: price action that I've grown to expect.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Luc,
I'll have to leave that question to Lance. I have no idea how to interpret them. I'm just working on getting the second half right.
Nobody does anything until a fib level is hit and then everyone piles in for a bounce.
Well that is one theory anyways. If you have a better one please share it.
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