Bond Trader 2006

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Big stupid mistake on my part. I read another message thread to get the long term view and usually only post questions or brief insight on that thread. Today, for some reason, even though I obviously posted my opening market commentary here....somehow...I must have pressed the back button and started posting my minute by minute stuff on the other thread!

I don't understand how it happened as my routine is read there, navigate over to here and I don't visit that thread anymore, i.e. any posts from the pre-market commentary on should have been posted here.

In any event, here is what I posted over there:

06-23-06 01:48 PM

Important time at 0805.

Short ZN at 104 130
Short ZB at 106 04 or 106 03

06-23-06 01:57 PM

Consider closing half here at 106 00.

06-23-06 02:00 PM

Ah decisions....take 500 or sit tight? Decisions ... decisions....

Time cycle hits in a minute or 2 at 0805.....

You know the answer already....take half off immediately!

06-23-06 02:06 PM

Closed everything at:

106 00 ZB
104 100 ZN

Wait for another short entry. Next move may not be until 0900 cycle.
 
OK, if we can hold at 105 31 to 106 03 up until 0900 (and I think we will), I will be looking to short heavily at 0900 CST due to an important time cycle.

Time cycles are tricky. Ideally you want to go into a time cylce at a high or low attempt. Based on if it is a high or low attempt you know if it is safe to short or go long. The problem arises when somewhere in the middle, you've already hit the high or low and are now in a consolidation phase. Now what? That is the tricky part.
 
OK, we have a problem now at 0855 CST. The time cycle is at 0900. It would have been nice if prices had drifted up to 106 03 or so. The problem is prices just dipped a couple of ticks and now, for the most part we've simply been in a narrow range since the last cycle.
 
I'm taking a risk here and going short now at 0859 in hopes of re-test of lows....

Sold 4 ZB 105 29
Sold 4 ZN 104 190

The above are not ideal trades. Ideally I wanted to short at 106 01 or better, and I was waiting for a nice price at 0900.

Note that lethargic action here means get out quickly as these are not good prices.

Initial target 105 17.

Target low for today is 105 12.
 
0918 CST Price looking really lethargic.

0927 CST Now this is a little bit better.

0928 CST Still not doing what we'd like. Someone stepped in with large orders.

0933 CST Hitting 106 27 again....
 
Sometimes the 10 year gives a clearer picture. The 10 year has been red for me since 0730 per my Market Profile clone. Red meaning negative trades for the most part.

This is keeping me in the trade.

0939 CST One observation to make is that at this point since getting in I must admit that my odds are now 50:50. The trade could go either way. If you buy near a low in the current move for a quick continuation play....the longer you are in the trade and the longer it consolidates the more likely that your trade becomes a coin toss.

0942 CST OK finally! A brief kiss at 105 26.

Need to keep the eye on the clock as 3 hours trading is approaching overtrading for me. Still have 30 minutes to go to reach 3 hours.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

0945 CST I'm 2 hours and 25 minutes into my trading day. In another 35 minutes I'll be 3 hours into trading. I'm approaching my upper limit for trading.
More...

Why quit when there's profit to be made? I don't mean we should overtrade. But would you hold your position till the close if your system still flashing the right signal?

Luc
 
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