Bond Trader 2006

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Closed out ZB at 106 05.

Believe it or not, I closed out the ZN's at 104 165. Had a sell in at 104 145, 104 155, and 104 160 and didn't get hit at each of them.......

Went from being up over 800 on this second run to being up just 500. Very frustrating.

I may call it a day. Today is day 9 of 9 profitable trading days without a single losing day!
 
0900 CST Leading Indicators report coming out. Probably won't do anything but it is worth waiting a few more minutes before I decide to call it a day.
 
Bought 2nd pair back 104 135 ... didn't want to wait... this has been a long day for me, i.e. 0720 => 0920 is close to overtrading.

It was worth it though....I was concerned there for a bit as I'm on a streak. I was willing to risk 250.00 USD of my profit though as my analysis indicated a test of 106 00 or lower.
 
This is an interesting observation. On multiple occasions these past 9 days, I've asked myself a question. "Where do you see this trade going?" It isn't as simple as asking the question. It involves a couple of steps, that I won't get into here. Bottom line, many times, after determining that price and entering it as a Buy/Sell limit in IB, I've found that the target is met. The problem is that I adjust the target to a smaller profit when it appears that price activity is failing to follow through.

As an example, I had an order to buy back 4 ZB at 105 31.....I left it there for a long time. When prices hit 106 00 and ticked back up to 106 02, I closed out at 106 01.
 
How to trade today:

First, you knew that an important 0730 report was due. You also knew that 106 15 is an important number. At 0300 to 0500 we hit 106 14 several times. You could have shorted at 106 13 or 106 12 for a quick 2 - 3 ticks by 0615.

Wait for 0730. Wait .... wait .... at 0732 based on price activity I knew we weren't going to get a spike up or down. I also knew that we had a short bias and that 106 08 to 106 11 was important resistance. What to do? Sell. That was the trade of the day. You knew the target was 106 03. You could have gotten out there or near there and called it a day.

From 0750 to 0850 you had prices coming back up to your first entry of the day. If you held, you would be banging your head against the wall at this time hence my previously mentioned rule. In any event, you know that there is a greater than 50 per cent chance that we will stop here at resistance and test the lows for a second time. This is your second trade of the day.

And that is it. Two solid hits a day and your work day is over.
 
Pre-market:

One report today. It is a Friday report. It is Durable Goods. It comes out at 0730. Everyone reading this journal should know how to trade today.

Things to keep in mind:

It is Friday. Some traders will be looking to close or cut back on some positions prior to the weekend.

We haven't moved much since Monday. This may be the day.

Important price activity from yesterday:

106 12
106 02
105 28
105 26

Price projection numbers:

106 12
106 03
105 28
105 12

My bias is short. I think we will see 105 12 before we see 106 12.

Everything revolves around this report though. I could go long, or I could go short.
 
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