Bond rally nearing an end?

Surdo · Nov 2, 2007

Quote from Bernard111:

Did you place the sell order before the actual data release?

I placed the order after dinner last night.

scriabinop23 · Nov 2, 2007

Quote from Surdo:

We spiked to 114 12' and down a dollar, to be honest I sold 114 and just covered, so I am not really reading into it, but will later.

el surdo

sounds like you and me are both watching the same trades. short CAD, short ZN/ZB.

Bernard111 · Nov 2, 2007

Quote from scriabinop23:

Anyone understanding why the bond market is acting so bullish in the face of those #s?

Lots of support.

We are about at the ISM release prices, maybe the bonds needs a further upleg on stock to liquidate more positions or... some bad stocks news are still on the arsenal of someone strategist waiting to go long again...

number22 · Nov 2, 2007

Quote from Surdo:

We spiked to 114 12' and down a dollar, to be honest I sold 114 and just covered,.........el surdo

Awesome; I was watching the EUR/USD at same time; and there is no bids until 1.4367 for couple of ticks.

anyway; Taking some shorts on these ZF/ZN right after they had pop up works for me.

mcurto · Nov 4, 2007

Countrywide dumped 30,000 March calls in the 10yr options right on the pit open explaining your move before the number. They obviously had it and wanted to save a few ticks on the liquidation of their "hedge". HAHA.

Spectre2007 · Nov 4, 2007

there is one upside spike left. Prudent to wait for it to short it if you wish, but then again 10 year can approach 4%.

youngtrader · Nov 4, 2007

mcurto nice to see you back on et. long time no see lol!

Bowgett · Nov 4, 2007

Quote from Spectre2007:

there is one upside spike left. Prudent to wait for it to short it if you wish, but then again 10 year can approach 4%.

Interesting take on why 10y might not approach 4%

"Subprime Contagion May Claim 10-Year Treasuries as Next Victim"
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agC9y13IzHt0&refer=home

Spectre2007 · Nov 4, 2007

SWF's need to put in something, and just hedge dollar risks in FX markets.

JohnL111 · Nov 5, 2007

Hey mcurto-

I saw where swap spreads blew out today across the curve with treasuries actually selling off. Wow! I don't remember a day like this in some time.

It is not my area of expertise, but I saw where CPR speeds have plummeted. This would mess up convexity analysis, so I am not sure how the originators will hedge their book. Any thoughts on the implications for treasury vols? swap vols?