Bond rally nearing an end?

whats the best way to play a long-term bond bear market?Shorting bonds is crazy since you have to pay for it and futures contracts are too big for me.
 
What about selling the etf, TLT?
Options would be even more cost effective.

You could go LONG RYJUX = Inverse Government Long Bond Strategy (RYDEX)


el surdo
 
Did someone noticed that the two spikes on the 10 y (ZN) futures at 107^27 and 107 ^31 were made out of regular trading hours, in other words, with the yelds closed? I think this market is going higher at least to test this highs, maybe when the stock market resume the downtrend.

Abraço e BN.
 
Quote from mcurto:

Definitely, the book is very thin. I would attribute this to all of the Chicago curve trading groups lightening up on the Autospreader programs. I know a few that got crushed as the curve massively steepened these past few weeks. Might be a few other big locals that are backing off a bit at these levels as we haven't been here for quite some time so no reason to show too much size and get run over either way. At least this stuff is tradeable now.
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After 2 months, again, we have other accounts trashed? the book is quite empty this morning... are they afraid of a sudden Fed Funds move?
 
Can someone explain me??

I bought some call options of ZB 111 September minutes before the 3 pm (US hour i think) at 1/64. This contract expires at September 1, so i didn't think when was the last day of trading.
Well, at 3 pm no more trading was allowed for this contract and now i know when was the last DOT :) .

My question is, if ZB futures close lets say at 111 10^32 on September 1, will i profit 10^32 per contract? The options exercise is automatic?

Thanks. Bye.
 
Quote from lrito:

Can someone explain me??

I bought some call options of ZB 111 September minutes before the 3 pm (US hour i think) at 1/64. This contract expires at September 1, so i didn't think when was the last day of trading.
Well, at 3 pm no more trading was allowed for this contract and now i know when was the last DOT :) .

My question is, if ZB futures close lets say at 111 10^32 on September 1, will i profit 10^32 per contract? The options exercise is automatic?

Thanks. Bye.
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if I remember well options expired today - it is last friday in the month preceding futures expiration month BUT there must be at least 2 more business day in that month...i.e. not next friday. that's at least how it works for 2yr ZT futures.

So you bought something with almost infinite negative theta :)
in other words it was a cheap lesson for you for the next time - read the contract specs before you trade it (happened to me in the past too...)
 
Dhpar, first of all, thanks for the help.

Options didn't expire today, at least for ZB and ZN. Today was the last trading day for the September options contracts. They expire on September 1, at least is what InteractiveBrokers says.

Well, the trade was supposed to last only a few hours or even minutes, but here i am now thinking in what can happen next week.

ZB has been in an uptrend, let's see if it continues at least for more 1 or 2 days. If so, i will short an equal position in futures to cover the profit in options at least until expiration, September 1.

On the other hand, if ZB turns low, well, bad luck for me :) . It was no fortune what i invested so there is no problem.

Bye.
 
Quote from lrito:

Dhpar, first of all, thanks for the help.

Options didn't expire today, at least for ZB and ZN. Today was the last trading day for the September options contracts. They expire on September 1, at least is what InteractiveBrokers says.

Well, the trade was supposed to last only a few hours or even minutes, but here i am now thinking in what can happen next week.

ZB has been in an uptrend, let's see if it continues at least for more 1 or 2 days. If so, i will short an equal position in futures to cover the profit in options at least until expiration, September 1.

On the other hand, if ZB turns low, well, bad luck for me :) . It was no fortune what i invested so there is no problem.

Bye.
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ok you persuaded me to check it myself. i don't care what IB tells you - that's not an official site for things like that. I assume you trade it on CBOT.
here is the link with contract specs: http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206,1526+14437,00.html

it is exactly as i said - the contract is already expired. you should be suspicious when somebody sells you ATM option for 1/64, i.e. free. if it expires in in 1 week time that would be a deal of the century.

Note (from CBOT web):
Last Trading Day
Options cease trading on the last Friday which precedes by at least two business days, the last business day of the month preceding the option month. Options cease trading at the close of the regular daytime open auction trading session for the corresponding 30-Year Treasury Bond futures contract.
 
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