Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from ralph00:

Yeah, I saw that over the weekend.

Its funny how markets work. Since early January, long-dated eurodollar futures have gone from pricing in a Fed Funds stoppage at 4.50% to beginning to price in a stoppage at 5.25% - and NOW Lehman makes their call. Where was Lehman 50 basis points ago? It really never fails.

I've been itching to go long eurodollars, but have thankfully kept my powder dry, ... until now maybe. The Lehman call may be ringing a bell - I suspect we are pretty close to a bottom.

Anybody with their eyes open can see that real estate markets are imploding. I find it hard to believe the Fed is not aware of it, and that they are a lot more concerned then they are letting on.

The June 07 eurodollars closed at 94.95 on Friday. I expect I'll be scaling into a nice long position over the next few weeks.

Anyways, this is a bond thread. Sorry to hijack. Perhaps we should start a Fed watch thread!
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A FED watch thread is a good idea :)
start one !
 
Quote from Surdo:

Welcome aboard Ralph!
Any semi-intelligent comments regarding the interest rate complex are welcome here. I just snuck in through the freight entrance.

Is there any way to plot/extrapolate the YIELD of the "New 30 Year" on TS8.1 back in time? That gap in the yield chart when they reissued the 30 last month is really PISSING me off.

I am trying to figure out 30 YEAR support based on past Yield trends.
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Surdo,
I have a continuation chart I've been using, both for yield and price...which do you need?
 
Quote from JohnL111:

OK, so my vol arbitrage theory is somewhat fanciful. Do you think the trades are an outright bet on lower vols or some kind of manuever to hedge a options book?
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I can't imagine selling gamma in 30y and buying gamma on the shorter end of the curve. That may be the case, if so, I'd like to be the counterparty. I think we'll see a lot more vol at the long end than the short end.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

Flatteners look pretty good right now.
Nice move in less than a week.
But how long will it last?

Getting ready to cover my bonds
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I'm screaming!! I got squeezed outta my position a couple weeks ago, now hoping it goes back to 4.63 ish to get back in... I doubt it'll happen as a retrace though...

congrats on the trade.
 
China may begin to dump U.S. treasuries it holds during the past week to prepare a possible war at west Pacific against U.S. in case of Taiwan independence in near future.

The Chinese hold more long-term treasuries than short-terms in their portfolio and on Feb 27th, the leader of Taiwan declared to abolish an important symbol which claimed Taiwan would get unified with the mainland. FYI. It might just be a coincidence with the recent yields rise.
 
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