Bond rally nearing an end?

it might be a good idea to analyze the strength of the bond market after the fed stops cutting rates. this might be a better idea than drawing elliot waves, poking voodoo dolls, studying tea leaves or trying to apply other forms of black magic to get a "read" on the bond market.

Quote from gharghur2:

It appears from my analysis that the Bond market started a cyclical bear market in the summer of 2005. Interest rates have been a supercycle bear market in October 1981 when the 30-year bond rate peaked at 15 1/4 %. That's 24 years of declining rates!

In the summer of 2005, interest rates started impulsing upward as noted in the chart below. Rates should find support at about 4.45% which is about 115.75 on the long bond. We spiked up the momentarily this morning. That could have been it! Lets see how this unfolds. But I'd have to state Bonds look very bearish!

Wrote a report over the weekend: Jan 16th
http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
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Quote from gharghur2:

01-18-06 11:03 AM

...Rates should find support at about 4.45% which is about 115.75 on the long bond. We spiked up the momentarily this morning. That could have been it! Lets see how this unfolds. But I'd have to state Bonds look very bearish!...
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Quote from killATwill:

it might be a good idea to analyze the strength of the bond market after the fed stops cutting rates...
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killATwill,

You recently moved to China...

I good friend of mine (econonics grad student) is moving back to China late this summer and I plan to visit him and his wife next year after they get settled in.

Maybe we can have a China ET meeting somewhere.

Anyways, when you used the above word after...

Are you suggesting not to trade bonds nor do any strength analysis until after the fed stops cutting rates :confused:

If your not suggesting that...how should a trader analyze the strength of the bond market until the fed stops cutting rates.???

I've attached 30 Year ZB bond chart is the H contract although we are currently the M contract.

Mark
(a.k.a. NihabaAshi Japanese Candlestick thread

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1001883</img>
 

Attachments

Quote from Hayek:

China may begin to dump U.S. treasuries it holds during the past week to prepare a possible war at west Pacific against U.S. in case of Taiwan independence in near future.

The Chinese hold more long-term treasuries than short-terms in their portfolio and on Feb 27th, the leader of Taiwan declared to abolish an important symbol which claimed Taiwan would get unified with the mainland. FYI. It might just be a coincidence with the recent yields rise.
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Interesting point...but war?
 
Morning,

I've been tracking most of the bond marketing privately, except for the yield on the 30yr bond, which I've been discussing on my blog for some time. Yesterday, I decided for what its worth to post all my charts for the interest rate market on my chart link:

http://spaces.msn.com/caldaroEW/

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1606987


All the charts, are continuation charts going back several years: daily and weekly charts are posted. The following markets are covered:

90 day bill yield
2yr note yield
10yr yield and price
30 yr yield and price

Naturally I'm applying OEW to these markets.
Thought you guys might be interested.

tony
 
Quote from steveosborne:

Nice job, really. Your target just got hit and I don't know if there's anybody else in the world who rode this thing from 115+ to 110'08!
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appreciate it :)
 
Quote from TF13158:

I was long some 110 puts on the June 30 year (May exp.) at 18-19. Sold out around 38...now trading over 100 I believe.
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A double is a double ... good trade
 
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