BMY - RT

March 31st 2021 is still a year away, so a significant amount of time. I think it is better than buying a call a year out. What I did notice though is that its trades on a very high volume .... 5M today for example.

The fox guarding the hen house is a concern, however I think there are some large institutional investors - Vanguard & Blackrock (100M units between them) who won't let it slip past that easily. Thats almost a $1billion payout for these two, if I did the math right. Just IMHO.
 
torpedoswap said:
March 31st 2021 is still a year away, so a significant amount of time. I think it is better than buying a call a year out. What I did notice though is that its trades on a very high volume .... 5M today for example.

The fox guarding the hen house is a concern, however I think there are some large institutional investors - Vanguard & Blackrock (100M units between them) who won't let it slip past that easily. Thats almost a $1billion payout for these two, if I did the math right. Just IMHO.
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I have been adding to my position lately.

A 1:3 Risk:Reward with a 0.5 probability seems like a reasonable bet.
 
I just doubled down on this again. The CV may hit the progress on these trials which + crazy market has caused this to go down significantly. But I think as soon as one drugs gets approval, the price should be $4 at the least. Crazy market though!
 
torpedoswap said:
I just doubled down on this again. The CV may hit the progress on these trials which + crazy market has caused this to go down significantly. But I think as soon as one drugs gets approval, the price should be $4 at the least. Crazy market though!
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We think alike. :thumbsup:

I bought some more this morning when RT went down to $1.98 :vomit:

Last I checked it went back up to $2.56. :D
 
Did you notice the volume? It was trading at a higher volume that BMY.
It went up 30% from $1.98 to $2.72.
I am planning to add more on market volatility and sell when higher to get my price basis as low as possible.
Goodluck :)
 
Should have tripled down instead ..... it's over $4 pre-market, already double from the bottom. Thinking of selling & buying back during this volatility.
 
Great to know your view is similar to mine.

My analysis said the highest risk for the RT is bb2121, least mature and more preliminary. But the phase two had such amazing results that they decided to skip phase 3.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31042825

Today they announced application for FDA approval.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bristol-myers-squibb-bluebird-bio-105900728.html

I think this bring expected payoff to >60% and holding this puppy a little longer should be profitable. Still I won't take it to expiration.

@.sigma are you reading this?
 
ironchef said:
BMY-RT is the contingency value right that was given to every CELG shareholder in the Cellgene buyout by BMY and is currently traded at NYSE.

The CELG/BMY merger was closed last Wednesday. For every CELG share you received $50, 1 BMY share and 1 CVR (contingency value right). The CVR is currently listed @ NYSE ~$2 a share

I am trying to figure out how to price the CVR. It acts like a binary option: If three CELG drugs currently on phase 3 clinical trial are approved within about a year, the payout is $9. If any one of the three fails to get FDA approval within the set period, the payout is $0. So the R:R is 2:9, all or nothing.

Based on my research on the three drugs, two seemed to be a sure thing and the third is a timing issue. I took a gamble and bought some BMY-RT.

Anyone here have any opinion or advice?
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Interesting, one of my friends who is pretty good at finding Biotech Special Situations was asking about this stock today. He bought bought Pharma Cycle at $3, ISRG at $7 in 2001 or 2002. You both have good eyes for finding interesting companies.
 
JesseJamesFinn1 said:
Interesting, one of my friends who is pretty good at finding Biotech Special Situations was asking about this stock today. He bought bought Pharma Cycle at $3, ISRG at $7 in 2001 or 2002. You both have good eyes for finding interesting companies.
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It was actually @TheBigShort who found CELG that led to BMY-RT. I just took it a step further.

You take care and be safe.
 
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