Interesting price action, I added to my position and will add a bit more if it drops further. Not sure how long FDA needs to turn around the application but it has to be sometime this month.
BMY - RT
- Thread starter ironchef
- Start date
What do you mean "interesting price action"?
After the spike from the CAR-T refiling, it was trading flat for a while but last week they took it down almost 20% ..... this could be in the anticipation of an FDA approval. I know this is binary and risky but I don't believe this is a dud & that BMY can get away with intentionally delaying things that easily.
If FDA approves CAR-T, this should trading close to $5 IMO.
If FDA approves CAR-T, this should trading close to $5 IMO.
Okay, maybe I needed to research a bit deeper.
So the ide-cell refile from July is the weakest link of the 3 at this point due to the FDA timeline dependency. A normal processing time of 10 months would put it beyond the deadline (counting from July 31st) but a fast track review (which it is eligible for) of 6 months would get us home by Jan. The May rejection was a major screw up from BMS because it would have ensured a result before the deadline. I am unsure if the 10 month standard processing still holds from the previous filing of May.
The 3rd drug has decision due on 16th November. So for the time being it's just a waiting game.
So the ide-cell refile from July is the weakest link of the 3 at this point due to the FDA timeline dependency. A normal processing time of 10 months would put it beyond the deadline (counting from July 31st) but a fast track review (which it is eligible for) of 6 months would get us home by Jan. The May rejection was a major screw up from BMS because it would have ensured a result before the deadline. I am unsure if the 10 month standard processing still holds from the previous filing of May.
The 3rd drug has decision due on 16th November. So for the time being it's just a waiting game.
They have been taking it down in a rush for the last week or so. From $3.60 or so down below $3, so 20% in a week. I entered sooner than I should have, but I am adding and averaging down.
All the professional traders here said NEVER average down.
The risk is FDA timeline. Very few drug applications at this stage get rejected. BMY did their part by "timely" filing so lawyers cannot go after them. The smart money is betting FDA won't meet the timeline.
I buy on weakness and sell on the ups constantly to reduce risk & get my price basis down while booking small profits.
I also feel the same way. The 3rd drug will get a green light in November getting it to 2/3 and ide-cell will most likely go beyond the March deadline. I will still hold on to a very small position to the very end just to be in the game.
Smart money will bet that FDA won't meet the timeline, only until the very last day when FDA will somehow magically approve the drug
I also feel the same way. The 3rd drug will get a green light in November getting it to 2/3 and ide-cell will most likely go beyond the March deadline. I will still hold on to a very small position to the very end just to be in the game.
Smart money will bet that FDA won't meet the timeline, only until the very last day when FDA will somehow magically approve the drug