Blockchain is Dangerous Nonsense

[schizo]

If it crashes from $1M to $200K on this bull market cycle, won't be so bad as long as we cash out enough somewhere close to the top

If the top is $250k crash to $50k, stil won't be so bad

$500k to $100k is the sweet spot for this bull market cycle

Yeah right. Easier said than done, buddy.

 

[johnarb]

Yeah right. Easier said than done, buddy.

The last bull market cycle, I cashed out the bulk on the way down in the $40k to high $30k over $700k worth (keyword is over)

This was the first time it went down from $65k mid 2021, not the last top $69k (Nov 2021)

near the top is relative to our situation(s), mate

 

[NoahA]

Every single bull market cycle (I've experienced 3 so far), bitcoin price has crashed at least 75%

Agreed, but you see, I wasn't around for the first two, just the last one. And now that I'm here, it won't go so low because of my buying!

Seriously though, I highly doubt this cycle repeats exactly the same way again. So many more people know about bitcoin, and I think its in stronger hands and more distributed. The reasons for the last crash, all the shady companies, will not repeat.

Imagine we do get a 50% drop, and people start salivating waiting for that last 25%. Maybe there is too much buying and it doesn't go below 50%. Now the rise is even faster from the later comers to the party. Maybe what drops even more is equities or real estate because people are running towards bitcoin and not away from it.

Or maybe this last cycle breaks the fiat stranglehold. Maybe it hits 1M and stabilizes. Maybe gold sells off hard and bitcoin moons from the rotation into bitcoin. Maybe governments start wanting to seize bitcoin, and the ETF get taken over and cash is given out. Then this cash goes back into bitcoin but this time you buy for self custody, and this pushes price up even higher.

When more and more people learn they can't trust the government, bitcoin will be the only show in town for wealth preservation.

Edit... oh crap.. I thought I was replying to schizo but I realized it was you John... good thing I was nice! LOL

 

[ElCubano]

but if you’re a real trader you listen to the market, and the bitcoin deniers are obviously ignoring the market.

exactafukinmundo…

 

[JayDomK]

Agreed, but you see, I wasn't around for the first two, just the last one. And now that I'm here, it won't go so low because of my buying!

Seriously though, I highly doubt this cycle repeats exactly the same way again. So many more people know about bitcoin, and I think its in stronger hands and more distributed. The reasons for the last crash, all the shady companies, will not repeat.

Imagine we do get a 50% drop, and people start salivating waiting for that last 25%. Maybe there is too much buying and it doesn't go below 50%. Now the rise is even faster from the later comers to the party. Maybe what drops even more is equities or real estate because people are running towards bitcoin and not away from it.

Or maybe this last cycle breaks the fiat stranglehold. Maybe it hits 1M and stabilizes. Maybe gold sells off hard and bitcoin moons from the rotation into bitcoin. Maybe governments start wanting to seize bitcoin, and the ETF get taken over and cash is given out. Then this cash goes back into bitcoin but this time you buy for self custody, and this pushes price up even higher.

When more and more people learn they can't trust the government, bitcoin will be the only show in town for wealth preservation.

Edit... oh crap.. I thought I was replying to schizo but I realized it was you John... good thing I was nice! LOL

If the price goes down by 50%, it will be a gift. There will be a lot of bitcoin purchases immediately, I have no doubt about that, because I will buy it myself. That's why it's not going down much.

 

[themickey]

If the price goes down by 50%

What will you do if it falls 20%?

 

[semperfrosty]

This is all devolving into a shouting match. We all have dumb options, here are some facts….

this is for the doubters, this is what you’re up against. This is what you missed.

I took bitcoins price from 2013 to currently, so excluding the most early years when nearly nobody could access the asset class.

I then iterated through the data and grabbed every four year overlapping period (daily frequency). So for example 01/02/2013 to 01/02/2017 then 01/03/2013 to 01/03/2017, etc

this results in 1758 individual 4 year slices…

the WORST annual return (compound annual growth rate) in this time is 22.2%!!

let me just repeat. If you picked the absolute worst time to buy bitcoin (by the way this time period starts at the absolute bubble top of December 2017) and held it for four years you returned over 22% per year. That is the buying at the worst time!!

of course the best time is over 200% per year over four years.

guys this is what you are fading! This is what you are not participating in. I can see being doubtful this continues if it was like a year or two, but it’s been over a decade of doing this.

Wake the fuck up!

 

[semperfrosty]

Fiat mindset

Everyone struggling to earn as much units in fiat currencies in the shortest time possible

High time preference just as intended by the powers that be, the slavemasters

You are but a mere slave... and you do not even realize it

“We printed $6 trillion in 2020. The average annual US salary is $60,000. That’s 100 million years stolen.” ⁃
@Breedlove22

Awesome!

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I mentioned in another post how when bitcoin goes on a rally like AMC or GME, it won't have the same constraints. Its not tied to a balance sheet or income statement.

And you think that's a good thing? That it's not tied to anything? That it is based on nothing other than the fever of the moment with no underlying basis?

 

[Frederick Foresight]

I know this all sounds too good to be true, but I honestly believe in the stupidity of the government to create the shock that sends everyone running towards bitcoin.

I don't think so. What I believe you are relying on is the stupidity of everyone running towards bitcoin.