Blockchain is Dangerous Nonsense

GlobalMacro90 said:
This is all devolving into a shouting match. We all have dumb options, here are some facts….

this is for the doubters, this is what you’re up against. This is what you missed.

I took bitcoins price from 2013 to currently, so excluding the most early years when nearly nobody could access the asset class.

I then iterated through the data and grabbed every four year overlapping period (daily frequency). So for example 01/02/2013 to 01/02/2017 then 01/03/2013 to 01/03/2017, etc

this results in 1758 individual 4 year slices…

the WORST annual return (compound annual growth rate) in this time is 22.2%!!

let me just repeat. If you picked the absolute worst time to buy bitcoin (by the way this time period starts at the absolute bubble top of December 2017) and held it for four years you returned over 22% per year. That is the buying at the worst time!!

of course the best time is over 200% per year over four years.

guys this is what you are fading! This is what you are not participating in. I can see being doubtful this continues if it was like a year or two, but it’s been over a decade of doing this.

Wake the fuck up!
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I bet you some people trading ES or CL made more than that. :)

Having traded both ES (currently trading at $4970) and BTC ($43,200), I can definitely say that you can make more day trading ES than BTC.

But you're right. All this talk about Bitcoin being the next best invention or whatnot is irrelevant. At the end of the day, it all comes to HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU MADE? :)
 
schizo said:
I bet you some people trading ES or CL made more than that. :)

Having traded both ES (currently trading at $4970) and BTC ($43,200), I can definitely say that you can make more day trading ES than BTC.

But you're right. All this talk about Bitcoin being the next best invention or whatnot is irrelevant. At the end of the day, it all comes to HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU MADE? :)
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maybe you are better than me at trading, but a 22% (historically worst case) sounds pretty freakin good to me.

the bigger point to me is how dismissive some people are, despite this performance over more than a decade. We can all have opinions, but if you’re a real trader you listen to the market, and the bitcoin deniers are obviously ignoring the market.
 
schizo said:
I bet you some people trading ES or CL made more than that. :)

Having traded both ES (currently trading at $4970) and BTC ($43,200), I can definitely say that you can make more day trading ES than BTC.

But you're right. All this talk about Bitcoin being the next best invention or whatnot is irrelevant. At the end of the day, it all comes to HOW MUCH MONEY HAVE YOU MADE? :)
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When did you start trading Bitcoin - spot or futures?
 
SunTrader said:
Ok, but then I don't get the ES vs BTC comparison you are making the claim ES is better. You micro-trading the ES. The link trade posts who almost 2 weeks in between.

Either way a blanket statement is still that.
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"Micro-trading the ES"? I don't follow. Do you mean I trade the micro (MES) or I scalp?

In any case, what I'm sayig is that it's fairly easy to score 10 points or more on ES in a matter minutes these days. That's $500+ per lot. But that's not the case with BTC. Maybe it's just me but the price pattern for BTC is too damn messy.

Regarding the 2 trades you're referring to, those are swing trades (obviously :rolleyes:). I also day trade BTC, although not as frequently as ES, but I don't even bother posting those.
 
GlobalMacro90 said:
We can all have opinions, but if you’re a real trader you listen to the market, and the bitcoin deniers are obviously ignoring the market.
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Speaking only for myself, I never suggested you couldn’t make money with crypto, just that it is intrinsically worthless. It’s the True Believer “hodlers” who will run out of runway at some point because they will be “hodling” beyond that point.
 
Frederick Foresight said:
Speaking only for myself, I never suggested you couldn’t make money with crypto, just that it is intrinsically worthless. It’s the True Believer “hodlers” who will run out of runway at some point because they will be “hodling” beyond that point.
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Yup, I think it's dangerous being a long term holder, don't fall in love with the hype.
Humans are great marketeers, be it gold, religion, crypto, Nickel, tulips, NFT's, pet rocks, guns, watches....
Unfortunately humans get caught up in excitement.
Now women......hmmmmm, can't shake that off.
 
engineering said:
It's hilarious to watch people act as if a non-productive asset is going to change everything and those of us who invest in companies that actually do things are fools.

Even if Bitcoiners wildest dreams come true, it will reach a steady-state market saturation. At that point it can grow no faster than productive markets.
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Money (store of value) is hundreds of trillions of $ global industry

Fiat currencies are guaranteed to debase, some slower than others and they cannot be stores of value over time
 
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