Black Tuesday - Price Collapse Imminent

[Port1385]

These black threads are getting tiring, but I actually have some data that I have been compiling.

There is a 75% chance that Tueday will be down with at least a 3% drop in the indexes. However, my calculations place a 10% drop on Tuesday.

The market today opened at a high and closed at a low. Breadth on the NYSE was simply horrible with 1700 stocks declining. When the tick went above zero, then more selling pressure would come in. Even an extremely oversold TICK exhibited only feeble bounces.

It is rare to see this kind of selling pressure before Memorial Day.

On Tuesday, I suggest shorting right at the open or purchasing puts before the big 10% drop.

 

[gobar]

r u kidding 10 % drop..

ben will commit suicide if there is a 10 % drop in a market...

3 % sounds good..anyways thanks for the info.

 

[Alex_in_Oz]

The market will DEFINATELY drop MORE than 10% but will probably take a few weeks to get there.

I believe the whatever the Federal Reserve does it cannot stop the S&P falling 15%+ over the next month.

The American economy will implode before the end of the year.
It will take a decade to recover AT LEAST.





Just curious but why did most of you vote for Bush? TWICE!
We in Australia are baffled as to why so many very poor people vote for a Republican president such as him.

 

[TRS]

Quote from Alex_in_Oz:

The market will DEFINATELY drop MORE than 10% but will probably take a few weeks to get there.

I believe the whatever the Federal Reserve does it cannot stop the S&P falling 15%+ over the next month.

The American economy will implode before the end of the year.
It will take a decade to recover AT LEAST.





Just curious but why did most of you vote for Bush? TWICE!
We in Australia are baffled as to why so many very poor people vote for a Republican president such as him.

Please consider your constant United States bashing in your posts.
I don't understand how, WE Australians kept re-electing John Howard. Latham aside

Thread starter- hope you reap the rewards of your analysis.

 

[piezoe]

Quote from Alex_in_Oz:

The market will DEFINATELY drop MORE than 10% but will probably take a few weeks to get there.

I believe the whatever the Federal Reserve does it cannot stop the S&P falling 15%+ over the next month.

The American economy will implode before the end of the year.
It will take a decade to recover AT LEAST.

Just curious but why did most of you vote for Bush? TWICE!
We in Australia are baffled as to why so many very poor people vote for a Republican president such as him.

Just a minor correction for the record. Bush was only elected once, not twice.

Not a few people think even his one election in Nov., 2003 was stolen. That one was a squeaker in any case. So we can really only blame less than half of us, since not everyone who could have voted did. So while the picture does suggest that at lot of us are pretty damn stupid, we are not, perhaps, completely hopeless.

Oh, and Port, no way it will drop 10% in one day. We will revisit the recent lows and it's highly likely we will go still lower, but that's a ways off. You get points for guts at least.

 

[Trendytrader]

10% fall. If Ben and Hank get wind of this they will implement a emergency FED rate cut on Monday. Look at their past actions!!!!

 

[HedgefunTrader2]

Donot you mean 10% rise? This market is going nowhere but up, your recession fears are all in your head.

 

[wiesman02]

Quote from HedgefunTrader2:

Donot you mean 10% rise? This market is going nowhere but up, your recession fears are all in your head.

PPI data was worse than expected, IE inflation, OIL is at all-time highs, housing market is tanking, there's a credit crunch.

So explain how recession fears are all in our head. And explain who u think will be buying to send this 10% up ?

 

[HedgefunTrader2]

Feds own this market, its going nowhere but up. Economy isnt so bad, I saw 10 people today in starbucks having their $10 coffees. People are still using buying Ipods and wearing Nike shoes. People are still smiling, prime minister Bush is doing a wonderful job with the stimulus package. The markets have no choice but to go higher, 10% at least.

Quote from wiesman02:

PPI data was worse than expected, IE inflation, OIL is at all-time highs, housing market is tanking, there's a credit crunch.

So explain how recession fears are all in our head. And explain who u think will be buying to send this 10% up ?

 

[cszulc]

I very much hope we do have another down day (possibly more than 3%) on Tuesday.

I've been short the ES since 1424.50, rode it up to 1440 intra-day once, and am glad I kept it.

Bernanke does not have any room to be cutting rates, and crude oil would go continue to go through the roof if he cuts another 50-75bp through another overnight "emergency" fed rate cut.