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Black Tuesday - Price Collapse Imminent
- Thread starter Port1385
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This would have been just another 'Black Monday' thread had Monday not been a holiday.
Time to buy must be close, we should be back above 1400 within the next few weeks.
We couldn't have gone down because of the interest rate comments; if you honestly thought they'd be lowering rates from here you have to be an idiot.
We couldn't have gone down because of the interest rate comments; if you honestly thought they'd be lowering rates from here you have to be an idiot.
I am expecting for price to change up in Tuesday watch 1370 level carefully.... Volume was decreasing on FridayQuote from Port1385:
These black threads are getting tiring, but I actually have some data that I have been compiling.
There is a 75% chance that Tueday will be down with at least a 3% drop in the indexes. However, my calculations place a 10% drop on Tuesday.
The market today opened at a high and closed at a low. Breadth on the NYSE was simply horrible with 1700 stocks declining. When the tick went above zero, then more selling pressure would come in. Even an extremely oversold TICK exhibited only feeble bounces.
It is rare to see this kind of selling pressure before Memorial Day.
On Tuesday, I suggest shorting right at the open or purchasing puts before the big 10% drop.
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Quote from Mr_Black:
I am expecting for price to change up in Tuesday watch 1370 level carefully.... Volume was decreasing on Friday
I actually agree. I don't think this market is going anywhere far. Friday was a pre-vacation day, volumes were low, and rumor news on LEH and the likes were getting the shorts the kicks they needed.
Tuesday will happen and all of the world's fund managers will think they are getting a great deal buying stocks right around this pretend support level. We should be 1405-1410 by mid-Weds. (I'm long)
Just look at the markit credit indexes for guidance. The subprime shit is done. It can't become any more worthless. Any more markdowns are worth only a few bucks at this point. The worst has happened in crude already.
I also believe that we've already corrected and that oil will decline and the stock market will go up.
Quote from Alex_in_Oz:
Just curious but why did most of you vote for Bush? TWICE!
We in Australia are baffled as to why so many very poor people vote for a Republican president such as him. [/B]
Another correction. Most of us didn't vote for Bush. I believe the number of people who voted was less than 60% of the total who could have voted, and Gore got 500,000 more votes than Bush in 2000.
As for the rest of your comment, I have trouble understanding that myself. For example, my parents were blue collar union members, yet they always voted for union-busting Republicans like Reagan. It just shows the power of propaganda.
Actually, I made this post because I wanted to test the sentiment that is out there.
Every notable blog that I read has the market breaking support and moving lower. The authors of the blogs I read are characters that we all know and love with much experience in the market.
Lets look at this way.
- There was a trend line from March until the current time which was broken.
- There are rumors of more problems at the banks. LEH is rumored to be the next BSC and its price/options activity quite telling. BAC just broke out of a price triangle to the downside and I see a price target coming of about 24 bucks. The XLF just appears to be in a downward slide. The XHB appears that it will test its lows.
- The PnF chart on the SPX just went bearish along with the Wilshire chart.
- There is a support level at around 1372 which the market was able to bounce off at the end of the day. This might be the only bullish sign I can see. If it pierces 1372, then 1360 will come by very fast.
All the technicals point to the market going much lower. Statistics show that a bear day right before a major holiday usually results in a bear day after the holiday.
The only bullish sign is that every informed market participant seems to believe that we will go lower suggesting there are a lot of shorts out there. I remember 2001 and everyone kept saying to go back into the market during the entire year. Now everyone is saying to be cautious...
Every notable blog that I read has the market breaking support and moving lower. The authors of the blogs I read are characters that we all know and love with much experience in the market.
Lets look at this way.
- There was a trend line from March until the current time which was broken.
- There are rumors of more problems at the banks. LEH is rumored to be the next BSC and its price/options activity quite telling. BAC just broke out of a price triangle to the downside and I see a price target coming of about 24 bucks. The XLF just appears to be in a downward slide. The XHB appears that it will test its lows.
- The PnF chart on the SPX just went bearish along with the Wilshire chart.
- There is a support level at around 1372 which the market was able to bounce off at the end of the day. This might be the only bullish sign I can see. If it pierces 1372, then 1360 will come by very fast.
All the technicals point to the market going much lower. Statistics show that a bear day right before a major holiday usually results in a bear day after the holiday.
The only bullish sign is that every informed market participant seems to believe that we will go lower suggesting there are a lot of shorts out there. I remember 2001 and everyone kept saying to go back into the market during the entire year. Now everyone is saying to be cautious...
Quote from trader_arb:
Time to buy must be close, we should be back above 1400 within the next few weeks.
We couldn't have gone down because of the interest rate comments; if you honestly thought they'd be lowering rates from here you have to be an idiot.
Quote from Port1385:
The only bullish sign is that every informed market participant seems to believe that we will go lower suggesting there are a lot of shorts out there. I remember 2001 and everyone kept saying to go back into the market during the entire year. Now everyone is saying to be cautious...
Also look at the put-call ratios on index options, they haven't been this lopsided since the last time we bottomed. We can and probably will go down from here, but not for long. We've had some down days not just because the financial's went down (they've been doing that for weeks), but leadership energy shares finally have started to fall.
How did you come up with the 3-10% down day figure?
Quote from Port1385:
These black threads are getting tiring, but I actually have some data that I have been compiling.
There is a 75% chance that Tueday will be down with at least a 3% drop in the indexes. However, my calculations place a 10% drop on Tuesday.
The market today opened at a high and closed at a low. Breadth on the NYSE was simply horrible with 1700 stocks declining. When the tick went above zero, then more selling pressure would come in. Even an extremely oversold TICK exhibited only feeble bounces.
It is rare to see this kind of selling pressure before Memorial Day.
On Tuesday, I suggest shorting right at the open or purchasing puts before the big 10% drop.
lol you are wrong
Your data and calculations is useless. Why not put your money where your mouth is and post your short position?
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