Black Tuesday (1st May, 2007)

Maybe the bombs start falling tomorrow on the next country with WMDs....one word "IRAN". Planning for something big like that can't be kept secret for to long. Now is a good time for the bombs to start falling...wouldn't have looked good to start the next war with the market already crashing through 12,000.

Anyone notice the large spike in gasoline prices this last week? Gas is now $3.17 from only $2.79 last week.
 
Quote from Trendytrader:

Maybe the bombs start falling tomorrow on the next country with WMDs....one word "IRAN". Planning for something big like that can't be kept secret for to long. Now is a good time for the bombs to start falling...wouldn't have looked good to start the next war with the market already crashing through 12,000.

Anyone notice the large spike in gasoline prices this last week? Gas is now $3.17 from only $2.79 last week.
More...


this is sooo bearish. its up tommorow, maybe by 100pts+ on the dow.

thats why..

doesn't crash yet. not yet.
 
At this rate I might just sell all my EEM puts at the open tomorrow...

Don't you guys get it, the weak $ is squeezing the life out of the EMs. The US is not where the short opportunities lie, use the relatively undervalued US indices as hedges as they are helped by the weak $ and the Fed. The EMs are where the good short opportunities lie and if the US takes a dump it will be nothing in % relative to the dump that the EMs will take. Sitting on 450 June EEM puts currently unhedged. Intermittently hedging with NQ fut.
 
The Chicago PMI came out in the morning, it couldnt have been that.

I just know that late in the day everything seemed to go dark. That is, everything except the bulletin board stocks in the "This is my longshot" thread. Amazingly, ABAT.OB along with the rest were up today and showed no pulling back.

I had CNBC off and wondered what happened. A terrorist attack? A Bush speech? Ben Bernanke? Nope.

I dont believe this will be a massive correction, but just some sideways action to clear away from the top Bollinger Band. We are just scraping the top on the weekly chart.

We can either keep scraping the top like in late 2006 or bounce off and come back to the middle or lower Bollinger Band.

I say sideways action for a week, maybe two. Then we can go back to upside, but I think the real correction will happen later.

The market always comes back to meet the lower Bollinger line at least once a year and sometimes twice. I think it will be twice, but its a matter of when. The lower Bollinger is 10% down from where we are at right now.
 
don't become a "statistic". too many people are stuck in a state of reality which is slowly evaporating on a daily basis.

it is amazing how many here literally "unwilling" to accept a near term reversal. some people are going as far to say that a market "crash" is not likely. there is a gray area between crash and reversal depending on ..

#1 time frame

#2 severity of the decline


If the DOW falls anywhere near 100pts this week (by friday) let alone on "one day" all the Bullish nay-sayers here are going to get owned by Mr. Market

I'm not here to make friends, I'm just telling it like it is.

If you are the type of trader to buy on dips, you ought to make sure you are buy less than usual in this climate.

Cheers and good luck to all mates!


Quote from michaelscott:

The Chicago PMI came out in the morning, it couldnt have been that.

I just know that late in the day everything seemed to go dark. That is, everything except the bulletin board stocks in the "This is my longshot" thread. Amazingly, ABAT.OB along with the rest were up today and showed no pulling back.

I had CNBC off and wondered what happened. A terrorist attack? A Bush speech? Ben Bernanke? Nope.

I dont believe this will be a massive correction, but just some sideways action to clear away from the top Bollinger Band. We are just scraping the top on the weekly chart.

We can either keep scraping the top like in late 2006 or bounce off and come back to the middle or lower Bollinger Band.

I say sideways action for a week, maybe two. Then we can go back to upside, but I think the real correction will happen later.

The market always comes back to meet the lower Bollinger line at least once a year and sometimes twice. I think it will be twice, but its a matter of when. The lower Bollinger is 10% down from where we are at right now.
More...
 
Quote from michaelscott:

I say sideways action for a week, maybe two. Then we can go back to upside, but I think the real correction will happen later.
More...

That is my guess as well.
 
Quote from truetraderone:

it is amazing how many here literally "unwilling" to accept a near term reversal. some people are going as far to say that a market "crash" is not likely. there is a gray area between crash and reversal depending on ..

#1 time frame

#2 severity of the decline
More...

I don't think anyone here is unwilling to accept a near term reversal. The title of the thread is "Black Tuesday" and there's a thread nearly every day predicting a crash. I've been in the stock biz for 22 years. I saw one crash in '87 and the deflating of the dot com bubble in 2000. That's two huge selloffs in 22 years. Predicting a crash every five seconds is nothing short of idiotic and is a mentality that is virtually guaranteed to lose money.
 
Quote from Mvic:

At this rate I might just sell all my EEM puts at the open tomorrow...

Don't you guys get it, the weak $ is squeezing the life out of the EMs. The US is not where the short opportunities lie, use the relatively undervalued US indices as hedges as they are helped by the weak $ and the Fed. The EMs are where the good short opportunities lie and if the US takes a dump it will be nothing in % relative to the dump that the EMs will take. Sitting on 450 June EEM puts currently unhedged. Intermittently hedging with NQ fut.
More...

dewd...You are one of the sharpest posters I've seen on this board. I appreciate you posting your take on things.
 
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