Black Tuesday (1st May, 2007)

Quote from loufah:


Also, how much do people want to believe builders who say that housing has bottomed?
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Enough that HB's are trading off their lows and CTX is up quite a bit today after delivering TERRIBLE earnings and saying they're sitting on cash from a bunch of their business divisions they sold because the market is shaky...so they're acting as a bank and didn't provide guidance, yet the market sees that as a buying opp.

I would say that's about the density of the bulls at this point. :D
 
these kind of people are liquidity providers.

they are exactly the reason why i can make a living in the futures

cause ignoramuses will trade their opinions, try to constantly short the tops (in a bull market) and engage their idiocy on a daily basis.
 
Quote from whitster:


cause ignoramuses will trade their opinions, try to constantly short the tops (in a bull market) and engage their idiocy on a daily basis.
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Wouldn't shorting tops be a good thing? Or is it good to lose money in your land?

...and "cause" isn't the word you're looking for 3rd grade.
 
a bull market can only have one final top

it can have (and has had) dozens of pullbacks

my point isn't that you can't strategically scalp off of exhaustion highs

but that it's stupid, low expectancy, and poor strategy to try to predict the top, or a 800 pt drop!! :)

that's not trading.

not intelligent trading

whatever.

the idiots will continue to provide liquidity

that's why they exist
 
thx.

fwiw, the most cost effective and least risky way to short the index in general (apart from index futures which i scalp long and short intraday) is bear spreads.

especially when the VIX gets down low, the premium gets pretty cheap, and the spreads offer a cost effective way of getting some short exposure
 
Quote from whitster:

thx.

fwiw, the most cost effective and least risky way to short the index in general (apart from index futures which i scalp long and short intraday) is bear spreads.

especially when the VIX gets down low, the premium gets pretty cheap, and the spreads offer a cost effective way of getting some short exposure
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only problem with the bear spreads is they have to go pretty deep in the money to pay off (or you have to go close to expiry).

not good for shorting a few points.
 
i've found bear spreads very effective when held for about a week, based on a # of factors I look at.

They've offered tidy little returns every single time I bought them (n=6).

In essence, you have to wait for complete euphoria to kick in, then they get reasonably priced.
 
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