Bitcoin Price Thread

[NoahA]

BTC has the most compelling narrative but there is always another animal spirit coin up & coming.

I think about this as well to be honest. Its just that it would have to do everything bitcoin does, and do it better. I've learned in podcasts that for something new to take over, it can't just be marginally better, but has to be significantly better to get people to switch. The ecosystem for bitcoin is immense at this point, but what I don't like is that too many people are fighting about the direction it can go, so it isn't finished. I hate that some people think the blockchain is for anyone to use as long as the transactions are valid. This to me is a major bug. Saddling nodes with storing useless data forever, like Jpegs, is an exploitation. Further, the centralization of mining is also worrying.

So I can envision a fork perhaps that solves all of this in the future when these attack vectors are better understood and can be counteracted. It would likely be a hard fork because the rules of consensus would have to change, but I can certainly see it happening. I think the best blockchain should have no ability to fight about anything. That is at least what gold has going for it. If the gold is verified to be pure, there is no argument about what it is.

 

[NoahA]

I would think that the price would have to become more stable to become a prefered currency.
I don't think I would want to deal in a currency that can fluctuate +10% in a week.

I agree, but there are already many countries where Bitcoin, if adopted as a currency, would save them. Lets face it, with inflation, its only going one way. If you have a currency that inflated at even 50% a year, then suffering through a 50% bitcoin drawdown is the same thing, but with bitcoin, you will have the huge upside.

I have read that bitcion is going to follow a bottom up approach. It is first countries like El-Salvador that adopt it, and last is the Western World.

I imagine the price will start to stabilize at some point in the future, but this will be at a much higher price. Never mind gold, I think bitcoin has to take the financial premium away from real estate. Imagine how productive a society could be if it didn't worry about not being able to afford food and housing and could just focus on being productive in the world and happy. The governments love to keep us being debt slaves, so the road is long, but I have no doubt that this is where we end up. So if the role of real estate investor will be a thing of the past, and all this money goes into bitcoin, it means a much higher price.

And you know, this is actually a good thing. I have no problem with investors risking their money to make more money. But when the thing you are betting with is a house that someone else needs to live in, this is a huge problem. Imagine betting your kids away at the casino! The only reason RE grew as a financial asset was because of the low rates and inflation hedge from the depreciating currency. It is 100% government created. Savings can go into Bitcoin vs. real estate, and society will be that much better off.

 

[long]

Don't re-balance. 3% risk against 97% of your other-assets portfolio investments is nothing, but when btc hits $1M within 6 years, that 3% will grow to over 30% of your portfolio vis-a-vis how the other assets perform

When bitcoin is $5M within 10 years, that 3% will be over 90% of your portfolio

Hodl

That’s assuming that the rest of my portfolio doesn’t go down…

If it does go down then BTC will be a much larger percentage of my wealth

 

[deaddog]

The only reason RE grew as a financial asset was because of the low rates and inflation hedge from the depreciating currency. It is 100% government created. Savings can go into Bitcoin vs. real estate, and society will be that much better off.

I bought a house in 1984. The mortgage rate was north of 15%. The payments were still less than rent at the time.
Now with a house if I ran into financial trouble I could always rent a room out.
I still have the same house, fully paid for and my kids will have something to sell eventually.
If peoples savings are going into bitcoin, where are they going to live?

 

[Sprout]

I just read Peter Brandt say something similar, but different. He was shorting ETH futures this weekend, but not spot he said because of too much counter party risk. If the market goes against him, he will buy spot, I guess since this is a 24hr market, and then exchange it for the futures position on Monday. But I think this just means the profit on the spot purchase on say Saturday night will offset the futures loss that he will incur when he closes the position on Monday morning.

At any rate, yes, I'm sure there is lots of complex shit going on. But I'm certain that at some point, major players will prefer using Bitcoin over USD for payments and savings, and then the real fun begins with price.

There are many countries that have been decimated by taking on USD loans. Its like going to a loan shark. If you can get better terms with someone else, you do it when you can.

If he didn't own the spot and ETH rallied, he'd double his losses on the short. Isn't that the classic Ag producer trade? Long the underlying because you produce it and short the future time settled derivative to hedge your long.

As for Tether, this was an interesting dimension about the use of it;
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...ndering-mogilevich-trump-us-elections.379479/

I bought a house in 1984. The mortgage rate was north of 15%. The payments were still less than rent at the time.
Now with a house if I ran into financial trouble I could always rent a room out.
I still have the same house, fully paid for and my kids will have something to sell eventually.
If peoples savings are going into bitcoin, where are they going to live?

In the metaverse bruh..

 

[schizo]

You tell me how you would value a stock if you knew that all of a sudden, the CEO could print up 25% of the float tomorrow and distribute these shares at will.

For a brief moment, I thought you were actually talking about TETHER. How words can be so deceiving.

Anyway, I'm not anti-BTC (far from it) and I also believe Blockchain has very promising potential for the future. Lastly, I agree with most of your premise surrounding FIAT and the economic woes that face this country. What I don't trust, however, are these greedy Bitcoiners. They're NOT like you. Their main motive is pure greed, not some admirable patriotism. They don't give a rat's ass if people suffer from bad economic policies or other mismanagements. They talk as if they do, but deep down, they can't hide their true color. They just want to make generational wealth.

 

[schizo]

Isn't that kind of what Tether is doing ?

LOL I only saw this after I made my post.

 

[The_Krakenite]

I could always rent a room out.

Nope. Not in Canada anymore.

Cash for Keys. You will lose your house to house-squatters. That's the new laws.

My mother already lost the home she bought for retirement to rent out to a squatter (and spent years in courts trying to legally get it back). And many of her boomer friends are stuck in the same catastrophe.

You are kidding yourself if you think it's a given to turn your house into a stream of income anymore.

Not to mention, Trudeau is now giving full 'free and unlimited' lawyer support (paid for by your tax dollars and money printing) to all renters (and again nothing for house owners).

 

[NoahA]

I bought a house in 1984. The mortgage rate was north of 15%. The payments were still less than rent at the time.
Now with a house if I ran into financial trouble I could always rent a room out.
I still have the same house, fully paid for and my kids will have something to sell eventually.
If peoples savings are going into bitcoin, where are they going to live?

Oh, I meant for anyone owning it as an investment, like 2nd and 3rd properties. Of course owning your own house is a good move, but not always. Not at these prices, and there are huge risks from low liquidity and honestly, political risks.

With condos for example, when you factor in strata fees and property tax, that is something that will never stop. And then after 10 or 15 years, you will get major assessments with regards to extra work like building envelope or elevators that need replacement. Insurance will keep going up as well.

Sometimes owning even your own house is like a ball and chain. You are trapped geographically, and you maintenance expenses and time are a huge drain.

Your generation benefited greatly, and the next generation is going to be the bag holder.

This video is excellent, although I can't recall if he talks about RE directly. But he eloquently argues for why young people are screwed.

 

[NoahA]

What I don't trust, however, are these greedy Bitcoiners. They're NOT like you. Their main motive is pure greed, not some admirable patriotism. They don't give a rat's ass if people suffer from bad economic policies or other mismanagements. They talk as if they do, but deep down, they can't hide their true color. They just want to make generational wealth.

Thank-you. That is quite the compliment!

But you see, the beauty of bitcoin is that its for everyone, even the drug dealers and pedophiles. I want my enemy to use it and have access to it. The government is the biggest abuser of them all. I fully believe that there is no point in fixing anything in the world right now until we fix the money. Fuck fighting for peace or ending poverty. All of these are symptoms of crooked fiat. We all know that if the government can't print money, they can't send billions to Ukraine and Israel. We also know that the government can't give huge deals to pharma companies, and this is exactly where the drug epidemic comes from. They get people hooked on prescription painkillers and then its all downhill from there.

And to be honest, from what I have learned, what you call the greedy bitcoiners are kind of the patriots. They are the ones who bought the coins when nobody else would. They held them through the bear markets. Yes, they will dump them on everyone at the top, but then we distribute the coins even further.

When you say "They don't give a rat's ass if people suffer from bad economic policies", what you are actually talking about is the government here. Case in point... "Inflation Reduction Act"... Did it bring down inflation??? The greediest bitcoiner is a saint in comparison with politicians.

Yes, there are some fuckers along the way who did rug pulls, who create shit coins and scam the buyers, who run businesses that end up stealing your bitcoins. But all of this is part of the road to world wide adoption. Look at the internet. How did adoption start? Was it school kids looking up information for their projects? No, it was us horny fuckers looking for porn!!! LOL.... Porn helped the internet get to mass adoption. Greedy bitcoiners were the first soldiers on the road to a monetary revolution.