so halving the remaining 10% probably wouldn't have much impact on existing supply and demand.
Are you kidding me? The fact that so little supply will be created going forward means that the only way to fix the imbalance is through higher prices. People are excited for this halving because it brings it down to below gold. Apparently about 2% of the gold supply increases every year, and for bitcoin, this will now drop to below 1%.
Obviously if there is enough selling this will meet demand, but this isn't the the most logical hypothesis for a bitcoiner.
Second, as I've stated earlier, I don't count on BlackRock as a friend of Bitcoin. If they were, we should already be trading at 100K by now
You're a smart guy, so how do you think Blackrock affected the price not reaching 100k? How are they able to manipulate the price? If there is demand for their ETF, they have to source more bitcoin, and this would push up the price. The GBTC selling was mostly absorbed thus far, but its clear that over the past few weeks, the appetite is slowing down and hence we have been in a range for the past month. But I don't see how Blackrock can affect anything. They are actively, from my understanding, pumping up this ETF to get more advisers to buy it.
The only fear that I have is that with bitcoin being locked away in the ETFs, there is less circulating supply. The smaller this liquid "float" is, the easier it will be to manipulate price. If the official price of bitcoin is set by cross-referencing the most liquid exchanges, who have maybe 2m coins available for trading, what happens when this gets cut down? What if only 500k coins end up on exchanges? Would it take 4 times as less coins to crash the price? Of course this works in reverse where just a slight imbalance of buying pressure can shoot the price up 100% if there are no sellers. So going forward, with bitcoin locked away in ETFs, and less supply from miners, there will likely be even more volatility.
What I find problematic is your blind zeal.
I agree that far too many people are sure we would hit 100k before the halving, and its clearly taking a bit more longer. But if we zoom out far enough, there is no 4 year period where bitcoin wasn't higher after you bought it and waited the 4 years. As for the cycles, I do fear that these might break. Its too easy now to just go long after a 70-80% drop and expect at least a 10x, and also expect this occur at 4 year intervals. Its no different than any chart analysis. Eventually price breaks out of a range, so buying bottoms and selling tops eventually breaks. Likewise with a trendline. Eventually it breaks, and you have to find the new trend and wait for a new channel to establish itself.
But the blind zeal I have to really push back on. There is absolutely no way to fix the problems that the entire world is in given this failed fiat experiment. Interest expense is the biggest line on the government balance sheet now. How do you think this will be fixed? The only reason that there hasn't been a collapse this year is because of the insane government spending. The bond market will not let the government spend like this anymore. You've got Yellen making special trips to China begging them not to sell US treasuries.
The only way I see bitcoin not going to the moon is for the government to crash the economy and keep everyone poor, refuse to spend money, keep the dollar high, but even then, they would have to keep rates high, and they can't afford them. When the Fed has to start buying the debt it will crash the dollar. There is no scenario in my opinion where even another year can go by without something major blowing up. The elections will obviously be a shit show, but it doesn't even matter who wins. There is no equation you can write that takes into account the parameters of interest rates, debt, deficit, the need to issue bonds, strong dollar, etc. Something will have to break and every scenario is positive for bitcoin in my opinion.
I'm honestly not even sure if I should believe inflation or deflation anymore as the path forward. Both sides have a strong case if you ask me, but its kind of like a car that is out of control on the highway. You see it tumbling but you don't know if it will end up in the ditch on the right or left. Inflation is of course really good for bitcoin, and deflation in my opinion will initially be bad as people will sell anything to get dollars. But deflation kills the system, and when a new system is born, I see no reason why it wont be bitcoin. Maybe the price is lower, but as they say, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin. If asset prices collapse by 90% and people can't pay US denominated debt, the dollar dies, but bitcoin will live on. Do you see any way the government lets deflation happen? If they let deflation happen, if they allow countries to default on US debt, it will be the US who ended up killing the dollar. But even if this is how it ends, people will just use bitcoin at a method of exchange and everything will be priced in bitcoin. So both deflation and inflation lead to bitcoin in my opinion. The inflation route is the more logical one, which means bitcoin goes to a million, and the deflation route is almost the more painful route, but it ensures the dollar dies.
Once again, there is no way to "thread the needle" anymore with respect to any monetary or fiscal policy. They can no longer just slowly inflate the dollar at a steady pace. They need to open up the tap full blast and hope this works. There will be no restraint for fear of that deflationary collapse. Remember, even if bitcoin goes to $15k, you can still have millions of sats that one day you can use to buy shit you need. This is why many smart people say the price doesn't matter. Just make sure you have some bitcoin.
(Have some cheese, it will make you feel better)
