Bitcoin Price Thread

[schizo]

Thanks for sharing this schizo. I do think its important to add to the narrative because everything I see in my feed is just that nobody is selling, and especially the miners. If this is in fact true, it does add to the picture. When you think about it, it makes sense. They can't keep having costs and yet no sales forever. Its a business, and they need revenue. HODLing the coins is great if they think its going to 100k or a million, but bills have to be paid in the mean time.

The fact that bitcoin was dropping over the weekend doesn't really mean there is anything wrong. The equity markets would have dropped too. Maybe the moves are much higher on bitcoin as a percentage, but everything drops in that initial scare.

I'm with John for the big picture though. All that selling is absorbed. If miners want to sell, let them. The coins are just going to stronger hands. Of course there are some people that can trade this very well and double their stack while taking advantage of making 10-20% on each trade and gyration, both long and short, but most of us will fail at this. So its better to just hold and wait.

I personally don't think there will be any fanfare after this halving. First of all, 90% of the Bitcoin is already in circulation, so halving the remaining 10% probably wouldn't have much impact on existing supply and demand. Second, as I've stated earlier, I don't count on BlackRock as a friend of Bitcoin. If they were, we should already be trading at 100K by now. Things don't add up and the bearish trend on the chart is only corroborating my view.

That said, I have no problem with BTC going up to 100K or higher. What I find problematic is your blind zeal. It's no different from other permabulls who believe the equity market can't go down, EVER. Well, look what's happening today.

 

[NoahA]

I personally don't think there will be any fanfare after this halving. First of all, 90% of the Bitcoin is already in circulation, so halving the remaining 10% probably wouldn't have much impact on existing supply and demand. Second, as I've stated earlier, I don't count on BlackRock as a friend of Bitcoin. If they were, we should already be trading at 100K by now. Things don't add up and the bearish trend on the chart is only corroborating my view.

That said, I have no problem with BTC going up to 100K or higher. What I find problematic is your blind zeal. It's no different from other permabulls who believe the equity market can't go down, EVER. Well, look what's happening today.

I got lots to say, but I'm at work now so gimme 8 hours please!

 

[johnarb]

Well clearly I disagree

Good for you but it doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset, the safest asset in the whole world

I personally don't think there will be any fanfare after this halving

Watch and learn, dude. Now it doesn't necessarily happen within a day, but over $100k/btc is 99.99% probability before eoy, guaranteed

That said, I have no problem with BTC going up to 100K or higher

There you go, just stop there, don't put any conditions, be happy when Bitcoin price goes to $100k, then $200k, then $300k, then $1M, then $2M, then $5M

 

[schizo]

Good for you but it doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset, the safest asset in the whole world



Watch and learn, dude. Now it doesn't necessarily happen within a day, but over $100k/btc is 99.99% probability before eoy, guaranteed



There you go, just stop there, don't put any conditions, be happy when Bitcoin price goes to $100k, then $200k, then $300k, then $1M, then $2M, then $5M

One thing you're never short of is your arrogance. You know you've been wrong before (in 2021 you were saying the same crap). So, if I were you, I would tamper down my arrogance a bit and learn from my past mistakes.

 

[schizo]

Whether you like it or not, we're going down to at least $50K. I leave this chart as a future reference.

 

[johnarb]

One thing you're never short of is your arrogance. You know you've been wrong before (in 2021 you were saying the same crap). So, if I were you, I would tamper down my arrogance a bit and learn from my past mistakes.

You seem to be bothered, I thought you said you would not have a problem

Bitcoin goes up, bitcoin goes down, but over the long time period, it goes up exponentially

You will learn as time goes by, You've been watching bitcoin for 2 years now when it was $15k, remember?

You're a slow-learner, though, so keep watching and learning

Whether you like it or not, we're going down to at least $50K. I leave this chart as a future reference.

Well, I do not like it, for sure

 

[schizo]

You've been watching bitcoin for 2 years now when it was $15k, remember?

Why is that so hard for you to understand? When BTC was trading at 15K, I became bullish because the chart told me that we were at the low. Now it's telling me it's overbought and it's about to roll over. That's why I'm bearish. There's no other reason. It ain't like I have personal reason to dislike Bitcoin. On the contrary, I like Bitcoin. Hence, I don't mind if it goes up to 100K or higher. But I'm a realist and, moreover, I stick to what I see on the chart, period.

As such, if you wanna be truly fair, you shouldn't blame me. I'm just a messenger. I only say what I see on the chart. You should blame the market.

Watch and learn, dude. Now it doesn't necessarily happen within a day, but over $100k/btc is 99.99% probability before eoy, guaranteed

BTW did you revise your estimate? IIRC a couple months ago, you were saying we would be hitting $1M by the EOY.

 

[Zwaen]

(lots) of money involved--> emotions. F*ck Netflix, ET is better!

 

[johnarb]

Why is that so hard for you to understand? When BTC was trading at 15K, I became bullish because the chart told me that we were at the low. Now it's telling me it's overbought and it's about to roll over. That's why I'm bearish. There's no other reason. It ain't like I have personal reason to dislike Bitcoin. On the contrary, I like Bitcoin. Hence, I don't mind if it goes up to 100K or higher. But I'm a realist and, moreover, I stick to what I see on the chart, period.

As such, if you wanna be truly fair, you shouldn't blame me. I'm just a messenger. I only say what I see on the chart. You should blame the market.

I am repeating myself, but I stopped trading the perpetual futures as the short term moves were too stressful for me

I've kept out of the short term charts discussion until that one weekend when there was too much (imo) fud posts from you

This is a bull market in Bitcoin and if you think you are helping others by scaring them out of positions and timing the markets not knowing their skill levels may not be on the same level as yours or they may not have the same time dedicated for getting in and out or even reversing positions as you, that's when I started replying to you

Why is the bitcoin halving important? In all previous bull markets, the hyperbolic moves happened after the halving, as a matter of fact, in previous bull market cycles, the previous all time high was not breached until after the halving

This time is different and perhaps it's because the $70k in 2021 was not the real top but cut short by all the failures and liquidations from 3AC, FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, et al

There is a simple logic on why the halving causes the price to go up, it's about current price-equilibrium, this is similar to gold mining in concept

If the price is above 60k now and the new bitcoins being mined are 900/day, that means there is a level of demand that is able to absorb that supply now $54M/day at $60k/btc

Literally in that next block after the halving, the supply becomes 450/day or $27M/day of the existing demand money will be available to push the price higher. Every single day

BTW did you revise your estimate? IIRC a couple months ago, you were saying we would be hitting $1M by the EOY.

It's $1M before end of 2030, $100k before eoy

There's a $1M/btc theory that floated around Twitter, perhaps originated with Samson Mow explaining the level of demand from the ETF's will cause a supply shock this year and we could hit $1M before eoy

I support the idea, as well

However, let me ask you a sincere question, do you think it matters much to me if bitcoin hits $1M this year or $1M in 6 years when I am already fully invested into bitcoin?

$100k this year is just fine with me, won't be disappointed at all, and late next year would be the parabolic top and fully expect btc to hit at least $250k possibly over $500k

 

[schizo]

This is a bull market in Bitcoin and if you think you are helping others by scaring them out of positions and timing the markets not knowing their skill levels may not be on the same level as yours or they may not have the same time dedicated for getting in and out or even reversing positions as you, that's when I started replying to you

Dude, you know what I wrote as my first post in the Crypto Winter thread? This is what I wrote. Check it out yourself. It basically means that I would be freely posting my thoughts and making forecasts on BTC.

Oh, you even "liked" what I wrote. I might have misunderstood that as you actually agreeing with what I had to say about Bitcoin.

But no, you and others literally jumped on me and I gave up on that idea. And this was supposed to be MY thread.

Why should I not be able to express my own opinions, whether you like it or not? What, you own this forum?

However, let me ask you a sincere question, do you think it matters much to me if bitcoin hits $1M this year or $1M in 6 years when I am already fully invested into bitcoin?

There you go again. It's always you and your beliefs, and only listening to what you wanna hear. Plus, let's not kid ourselves. You are always hyping up bitcoin. We'll find out if you're right when we get there (or when we drop to 50K first).

Anyway, I don't know you personally and we'll probably never meet in person. So it really doesn't matter to me what you say. But you need to understand that this is an open forum. I have every right to express my opinion in any way, shape or form. And, yes, growing some manly balls would not be a bad idea either.