That was last week (Tuesday) when the emergency email was sent, price went down over $2K from $49.3K to high $46K
The newsletter does not know how deep the correction as we don't know if there will be buyers stepping in, which happened, hence the newsletter update a few days later said no longer bearish and I posted here
Since it's old, I think it's ok to share
Top level summary for 24th August 2021 (current price $49.3k):
- Short term: New data that came in today shows long term investors are in the process of a medium sized sell off. Our demand and supply model is in a bearish divergence, suggesting price now needs to correct to lower levels to find balance.
- Price action expectation: I’m expecting a bearish reversal this week to initiate. The scale of the pull-back is not yet known, and will depend if more sellers come in. I await further data.
I'm just looking at this visually. If we consider the call as you state, and mark it on this chart, I will be extremely generous and call it the move outlined via the red line at the red arrow. (there was a large counter move where it moved up before dropping a little lower, but I will just call it one move)
Next, if I copy this exact same move to other areas on the chart where we have a roughly similar move, we can see that there really wasn't anything that special about this move in question. I of course understand that its a forecast and nobody knows what will happen and if buyers will step in. But if the idea is that on-chain analysis is predictive, it should more often than not lead to moves that are more pronounced.
For me trading futures, its like analyzing levels with resting orders. Sometimes its clear that the price of ES for example will trade very close to a thick level and either pause, or move away, or in some way show that people are reacting to this. Other times, its like the level just isn't there. There is no extra volume, there is no counter move, etc. The liquidity is just swallowed up and it keeps on going. And on just a rough estimate, its practically 50/50 as to that thick level providing a tradeable idea.
So if the on-chain analysis says selling is coming, but the move is so small that we don't want to sell, then its not valuable information. If every sell signal produced a 5k or great drop lets say, then fine, we could sell all out coins and start to accumulate lower.
I'm not trying to argue with you and I appreciate your posts, but I'm just trying to make sense of the worth of this info.
