Bitcoin Price Thread

I have to tell this story - registered on reddit/bitcoin and made (tried) a post.

first of all there is censorship, you hit the post button and it won't.... some monkey is in the background proof reading this stuff first.

then I woke up this morning to a ban notice. I swear - didn't use any foul language.. was only pointing out that retail sentiment is crowded...two sentences.. that was it.. I got banned.

Yet you read these posts - seems it's all about 'freedom' from the oppression of the establishment banking cartel. Have not seen so much evil from a moral high ground, in a trading vehicle. Past bubbles were all about money, boring.

Makes sense now this stuff is popular with the cult - evil from moral high ground, censorship to control the narrative... typical cultism.
 
dozu888 said:
this kind of rise is actually bad news.. there is no natural supply/demand in this.. the whales just pulled it STRAIGHT up, vertically.... see if it can draw in some new suckers.
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In this case dozu, I think you are right as there appears to be one big trader who bids up the cash price of Bitcoin right after a futures expiration. Nice game to play. However, long term I am a believer.
 
Illini Trader said:
In this case dozu, I think you are right as there appears to be one big trader who bids up the cash price of Bitcoin right after a futures expiration. Nice game to play. However, long term I am a believer.
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The whales maybe some lucky computer geeks who mined lots of coins early. But the price actions are foot prints of pro traders. These people are joined at the hip
 
Pekelo said:
I would say, when I am not invested I can be more objective on a stock. When you are long you are talking your book and find everything bullish. The same with shorts.
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When it comes to predictions, all else being equal, my prior would be that someone who has real money on the line would do a better job than someone constructing a theoretical argument. Simply because humans are lazy and, without skin in the game, our favorite exercise is jumping to conclusions.
 
Secret Santa said:
When it comes to predictions, all else being equal, my prior would be that someone who has real money on the line would do a better job than someone constructing a theoretical argument. Simply because humans are lazy and, without skin in the game, our favorite exercise is jumping to conclusions.
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Wrong, Pekelo is right. People always see what they hope will be the outcome. With real money on the line they start to think subjective. That's also the reason why many of them cut profits and let losses run.
 
schweiz said:
Wrong, Pekelo is right. People always see what they hope will be the outcome. With real money on the line they start to think subjective.
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"Wrong?" We are talking about cognitive biases here, there are no "right" or "wrong", there is "more" or "less".

I am pretty sure most people think subjectively in all cases. However, it's natural to be far more extreme in your subjective thinking when you have nothing on the line. That's because you remember your extreme winners better (hindsight bias) and if you have a view you will likely make that view more extreme because of it. So my prior belief that more people tend to make more objective predictions when they actually willing to risk their money. The fact that betting markets consistently outperform surveys is a good hint at this, IMHO, though maybe not a true proof.

schweiz said:
That's also the reason why many of them cut profits and let losses run.
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That is general loss aversion, has very little to do with objectivity.
 
Secret Santa said:
That is general loss aversion, has very little to do with objectivity.
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If they would think objectively they would cut their losses. Not cutting them shows they cannot think objectively. Loss aversion happens only when there is money on the line. In simulations they don't have that loss aversion as there is no financial risk.
 
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