Why, do you know something that they don’t?
We can banter here all we like, but the optimal behavior for someone who already has a position is not quite as clear cut.
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Bitcoin Price Thread
- Thread starter Magna
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We can banter here all we like, but the optimal behavior for someone who already has a position is not quite as clear cut.
That is so incorrect I don't even know where to start. Just because people made a shitton money with Tesla by being long that doesn't mean the company is not structurally bankrupt. The same with Bitcoin. Eventually real life economics will win, but as history shows, it might take 10-15 years.
But someone has to pay the piper/miner/stock issuer...
Not to mention people talk their book. Just go and read SA comments, people are dug in on both sides and wouldn't acknowledge anything from the other side. Because if they do, they should switch sides...
I have extremely correct predictions on both Tesla and Bitcoin that doesn't mean I own either...
Dude, we already established that you are an evil billionaire living inside a hollowed volcano and sleeping alternatively with Jessica Alba and Melania Trump. In fact, I recall reading that you kicked Chuck Norris' butt the other day. Some say that when you buy straddles, the market pays you the premium.
I was merely making a theoretical statement that from the perspective of incentives and cognitive biases, people who do have money on the line should make more sound predictions. Actual evidence seems to be somewhat supportive of it, but I have not given it enough thought.
I know something that you apparently don't know.
People who papertrade can easily follow their rules and will never make a mistake.
When they start to trade with real money to lose they will have problems with emotions, uncertainties, doubts, stress, fear of losing... This will lead to decisions that don't correspond with the plan they had to follow. Risk aversion does not exist in papertrading, but it exists in real trading.
It is like playing a videogame and drive a racecar. In the game it is easy. But if you try it in reality it's not a game anymore and you will never behave like in the game. If you make a mistake in the game you restart the game; if you make a mistake in reality you probably get killed. Your behavior will be different... unless you are a robot and not a human.
Right, same way you are making practical examples about the options markets. LOL..and I was making a practical statement about how life works.
no you haven't
good judgement is usually a result of sound methods... I don't have btc, but price action and sentiment principles are very similar among markets.
and arguably people with positions can easily have confirmation bias and choose to ignore evidence against their positions.
for the die-hard longs who are very faithful in btc... I'd say if they sell their positions now, their 'faith' may evaporate very quickly.
Well, there you go again with the word "know". There is some evidence that skin in the game provides for better prediction power. For example, prediction markets tend to outperform the polls.
Not to sound cynical, but "price action" and "sentiment" don't really have much predictive power. Most of such predictions are not worth the tea leaves that are being used. The fact that you (or someone) was right X-teen years ago does not really make it a scientifically valid method. A frequently mis-attributed proverb says "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
Possible. IMHO, an adult view is not to be die-hard anything and change your opinion based on the evidence. I think that's what differentiates a good pro from an amateur in this business (with some really prominent managers behaving like total clowns in that regard, of course). Of course, that would make one a "flip-flop" and frequently would require admitting defeat. My personal trick is to internally express any view as a numeric probability and adjusted it based on the new evidence. Makes it much easier to change my opinion without damaging my ego
People without positions exhibit similar confirmation biases, as has been illustrated in this thread. Seems like confirmation bias is about being right more than anything else. In general, these forums are a wonderful illustration of what biases we all carry (especially if you stumble into the politics section, not that I'd advise that), confirmation bias being the mother of them all.
On the topic of bitcoin, fuck knows where it will end up. I think I've stated before that it probably will settle somewhere in the 7 to 15 thousand range, but we can easily see both 5k and 50k while we getting there. At the time I had a whopping 5 coin position that I carried from just over 500 dollars, so I had put some thought into it. For the record, I unloaded it in the middle of January at 13 and some pennies. The thesis was unchanged but my favorite dog rescue urgently needed 50 grand to keep them afloat.
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Well, there you go again with the word "know". There is some evidence that skin in the game provides for better prediction power. For example, prediction markets tend to outperform the polls.
Not to sound cynical, but "price action" and "sentiment" don't really have much predictive power. Most of such predictions are not worth the tea leaves that are being used. The fact that you (or someone) was right X-teen years ago does not really make it a scientifically valid method. A frequently mis-attributed proverb says "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future".
Possible. IMHO, an adult view is not to be die-hard anything and change your opinion based on the evidence. I think that's what differentiates a good pro from an amateur in this business (with some really prominent managers behaving like total clowns in that regard, of course). Of course, that would make one a "flip-flop" and frequently would require admitting defeat. My personal trick is to internally express any view as a numeric probability and adjusted it based on the new evidence. Makes it much easier to change my opinion without damaging my ego
People without positions exhibit similar confirmation biases, as has been illustrated in this thread. Seems like confirmation bias is about being right more than anything else. In general, these forums are a wonderful illustration of what biases we all carry (especially if you stumble into the politics section, not that I'd advise that), confirmation bias being the mother of them all.
On the topic of bitcoin, fuck knows where it will end up. I think I've stated before that it probably will settle somewhere in the 7 to 15 thousand range, but we can easily see both 5k and 50k while we getting there. At the time I had a whopping 5 coin position that I carried from just over 500 dollars, so I had put some thought into it. For the record, I unloaded it in the middle of January at 13 and some pennies. The thesis was unchanged but my favorite dog rescue urgently needed 50 grand to keep them afloat.
prediction market does outperform, but that supports the point that people WITHOUT position has a better view! BEFORE they enter the market they seek info to make a better educated decision, hence the outperform..... once they are in the position, they fall victim to the same trap the bitcoin longs are in - their views clouded by the hope and fear that comes with the position.
price action, and some sentiment indicators alone (e.g. put call ratio) don't amount to much... that I agree.. I have a thread named 'trading is easy'... shows my style of a combo between price action and sentiment and news stories... many puzzle pieces for the story telling... has been working well. The bitcoin story already has many pieces making it convincing to me.
yes flat people can have confirmation bias, but perhaps to a lesser degree than the longs and the shorts... most people feel different about missed profits than lost money.
7-15k is too generous... have expressed many times that crypto as a whole worth $50-100b at the moment... don't forget right now, many useless white papers like DOGE still worth $100s of $M's... hard to rationalize that... if 2000 can be used as a reference, the garbage has to be completely cleansed before the phoenix can rise from the ash.... only makes sense because this technology cannot carry white papers to greatness.
very generous of you with the dog shelter!
Ya know if you look at the Weekly log chart on BTC it does not look so bad. Take a peek.
