Bitcoin "Freefall"

[maxinger]

BUY THE DIP ----> CATCH THE FALLING KNIFE

BUY THE DIP ---> BUY THE DIP WHEN THERE'S NO DIP

BUY THE DIP ----> SELL AFTER END OF RETRACEMENT

BUY THE DIP = BUY AFTER END OF RETRACEMENT




Make sure you know the distinctions.

I remembered catching the falling knife many times many years ago.
Of course, I had to top up my trading accounts many times.


Most likely El Salvador didn't buy it massively.
ie
SELLERs > BUYERs
So now it is at 35k. I guess there might be some support at 30k.

 

[maxinger]

 

[The_Krakenite]

I guess there might be some support at 30k.

So in other words, shorting PUTs under the 30-strike should be worth the risk right?

 

[virtusa]

You seem to have this burning desire to be told you were right. So I want to make it very clear that your post that you quoted above from November 16th was absolutely correct as we look back on it in hindsight. Congrats. If I could pat you on the back right now, I would. However, it's interesting you posted that particular comment instead of marking the account to reflect the $4k in profit up to that point.

I don't need confirmation. I know what I know. I just said I was right, because I know that crypto believers always say I am wrong. Even when I am right.

You had indeed a 4K profit, so congrats. If I could pat you on the back right now, I would it too. But at 60K I saw that it would go the other direction, so I wanted to give you a hint, but no advice. 4K or 12.50% profit on your entire position is not such an impressive return seen the volatility of BTC. That can come and go within 1 hour. It was in hindsight just a lucky shot that later became an unlucky one.

You're like Peter Schiffe. He literally said in an interview the other day "I've been warning people about Bitcoin since it was $10."
...and he was actually proud of that statement. If he shorted it at $10, I wonder what his unrealized loss would be today.

No I am not like Peter Schiffe, because my short signal would make at this moment 10,000's of dollars profit if you had taken it. Besides, Peter Schiffe could not to short at that time. You could only buy and go long in 2012.

You missed the long from $10 also completely. Just like all crypto believers on ET missed it. You only started to buy above 54K. You are more like Peter Schiffe. Not me as I beat the return from BTC from long before it was at $10, so trading BTC has never been an option for me and will never be.
It was a discussion between your opinion and mine. Peter Schiffe has nothing to do with this discussion.

I will exit the discussion here because it has become more about egos than the rest.

 

[virtusa]

Isn't he just building an investing position?

Yes he is.
But you should understand that, whether investing or trading, the principles are the same: try to buy at a good price.
You don't need to take the bottom when investing, as it has less impact on your investment in the long term, however buying just before a 40% drawdown is bad investing. Or proof that the information you act on is rubbish.

We come very close now to the price level of 1/1/2021, so wiping out the "fantastic returns" of 2021 completely.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Yes he is.
But you should understand that, whether investing or trading, the principles are the same: try to buy at a good price.
You don't need to take the bottom when investing, as it has less impact on your investment in the long term, however buying just before a 40% drawdown is bad investing. Or proof that the information you act on is rubbish.

We come very close now to the price level of 1/1/2021, so wiping out the "fantastic returns" of 2021 completely.

I would think when investing that what would matter is what relationship the investment would have to total net worth. 401kers do this all the time. ---ie buy high and buy low.

 

[virtusa]

I would think when investing that what would matter is what relationship the investment would have to total net worth. 401kers do this all the time. ---ie buy high and buy low.

My experience is that buying low is always better than buying high.
But the problem is, most people have no idea what's high and what's low, so they gamble.
If they knew what is high and what is low, they would never buy high. So their behavior confirms that they have no idea.

FOMO also plays an important role. That is constantly used in cryptos to scare people that they will miss the big step and to push them to buy high. This way they catch the big movement downwards instead of upwards. You should always wait until you see an average low, never chase the price. And if you miss it, wait for the next opportunity. There have already been many opportunities in BTC to buy an intermediate low.
Patience always pays off.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

My experience is that buying low is always better than buying high.
But the problem is, most people have no idea what's high and what's low, so they gamble.
If they knew what is high and what is low, they would never buy high. So their behavior confirms that they have no idea.

FOMO also plays an important role. That is constantly used in cryptos to scare people that they will miss the big step and to push them to buy high. This way they catch the big movement downwards instead of upwards. You should always wait until you see an average low, never chase the price. And if you miss it, wait for the next opportunity. There have already been many opportunities in BTC to buy an intermediate low.
Patience always pays off.

I doubt that Baron has all his eggs in the crypto basket.

 

[virtusa]

I doubt that Baron has all his eggs in the crypto basket.

I am sure he has not all his eggs in the crypto basket. But it makes no sense to buy at a bad price if you can buy at a good price. It means you miss the knowledge to buy low.
Not have all his eggs in the crypto basket is irrelevant. Each separate investment/trade should be positive. It does not make sense not pay attention to losses. Better spent your money then on something else.

I have losing trades too, but I always know why exactly I did that trade. And I never add to losers, I try to find out how to avoid losers.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I am sure he has not all his eggs in the crypto basket. But it makes no sense to buy at a bad price if you can buy at a good price. It means you miss the knowledge to buy low.
Not have all his eggs in the crypto basket is irrelevant. Each separate investment/trade should be positive. It does not make sense not pay attention to losses. Better spent your money then on something else.

I have losing trades too, but I always know why exactly I did that trade. And I never add to losers, I try to find out how to avoid losers.

Good advice for trading, but for a person building a position, it has little relevance.