Bitcoin "Freefall"

Baron said:
If you have a method that works reliably, I'm sure there would be many people who would love to get a glimpse into how you trade profitably. But if you don't want to start a journal, that's certainly your prerogative.

I do have a question for you though. Given the incredible rise in the crypto industry that we've seen over the last several years, not just from a price appreciation standpoint, but also from outside investments into crypto projects of all types from VCs and other funds, is there any event that could take place in the future that would cause you to say, "Ok, I was clearly wrong about Crypto being a scam." For example, we've seen worldwide adoption of Bitcoin take place, both in terms of major companies mining it to individuals, companies, cities, and countries buying and holding it. We've seen all kinds of new applications from decentralized finance to NFT marketplaces come out of nowhere just within the past year. And even with the recent dip in crypto prices these last few months, we're still looking at a market that has essentially gone from zero to 1.7 Trillion in market cap just within last several years. Is there any signal whatsoever that would prompt you to ever say in the future that you were wrong about Crypto?
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I don't follow all these things. I just watch where I can make the most money.
I beat BTC already a long time. So all the rest I don't care about. I trade purely on a mathematical basis.
BTC has no applications at all that might bring some value. There are a few crypto's (I think Cordana and ...) that are used in applications, so there might be some potential. But no matter what I compare with daytrading the ES, everything has inferior returns, so I am not interested.

The future can proof me wrong about BTC, but even if it goes higher, the questions is :how high?

The compounded monthly rate of return since august,24 2010 for BTC is 10.4415%. So if I make average more than 10.4415% per month daytrading ES, I beat BTC if it was bought at a price of 0.0648$. Nobody on ET, and probably 99.99% outside of ET, bought BTC at that price. So in reality for almost everybody the compounded tare of return is even lower.
10% a month is no problem at all for a good daytrader. Even if BTC would be today at $1,000,000 the compounded rate of return would only be 13.1475%, which I still beat easily in daytrading.
It would be a failure if the compounded rate of return of BTC would beat me. But for that BTC should have to go extremely higher. Much higher than $1,000,000 today. And each day the needed return should increase as the period of investment gets longer, reducing the compounded rate of return.

The fairy tales around crypto's remind me of 2014 (I think) when biotech was booming. I had big discussions on a forum about Hemispherix (HEB at that time). They were trying to pump it up too. They also had a fairy tale why it would go up in an explosive way. It traded around $2, and after years of very promising, but always failing preclinical trial, Hemispherix was a losing investment that exploded instead of rising explosive. Last quoted in 2019 at $1.82 before it was taken off the exchange.
 
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Baron said:
I do have a question for you though. Given the incredible rise in the crypto industry that we've seen over the last several years, not just from a price appreciation standpoint, but also from outside investments into crypto projects of all types from VCs and other funds, is there any event that could take place in the future that would cause you to say, "Ok, I was clearly wrong about Crypto being a scam."
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If I would be interested I would never miss the big moves because I have a simple logic that I follow: if the market goes up and it is confirmed by my system I would go long. If the position has to be closed because the market is reversing, I would close my position. If the market would again reverse and go up, I would go long again.

I have no fear of FOMO, as there are always opportunities to still catch part of the trade. Just jumping in because of FOMO is the most stupid thing you can do, as statistically it will end bad in the long run. I think you bought because of FOMO.
FOMO is also abused by the crypto fans to convince other people (victims) to get in at very high prices. A few of these people gave you likes each time you bought. They need cannon meat to push BTC up, while they wait on the sidelines and let others take all the risk.

For these trades they gave you likes. Cynical. They liked that you went down 36.99%. These crypto fans clearly have no clue about what the market will do. But that I knew already a long time.
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This is all that matters in crypto: The supply of BTC and ETH are falling. Every other asset on the planet increases in supply as demand increases. But the micro amounts in lost wallets cause the accessible supply of these cryptos to consistently go down. ETH supply is also deflationary by design at this point. This causes more crypto confusion than anything else. Long term charts will always appear exciting, volatile, exponential and in a bubble for this reason. It's a permanent future of huge pullbacks but a seemingly endless exponential curve.
 
SunTrader said:
You keep reinforcing the opinion point.
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There is an multinational kerfuffle upcoming. Do you think the states involved will tolerate your little bits. They will be made illegal. How will you buy milk then?

Alternately: the elites own enough Bitcoin to carve out an exemption.
 
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