I read above posts and assume the average age of opponents is higher then proponents of bitcoin and it is not to offend anyone. It is a generational bias that is speaking imo.
Older generation are conservative and stick to their investing habits while younger generation explore and take risks and rewards of investment in the unknown.
There is indeed a generational bias. Older people have in general more life experience, so more wisdom. I daytrade over 25 years, my son was trading crypto's for 2 years. It is clear who has more experience, although my son has a university degree and I have not.
Parents educate their children in thousands of different things and thanks to that these children make less errors, or bad decisions while growing up. So, in general, it is better to listen to the parents than to the childrens opinion. When I was young I also thought I was smarter than my parents. I know now it is mostly not true. The moment that you will realize that too, will one day come (hopefully).
There is also: "I missed the train, so it better crash" common narrative which simply is regret.
I said many times on ET that I make more money daytrading the ES than I would have made with BTC. So I never missed the train, I caught the right one.
98% of all addresses are smaller than 1 BTC which shows that "BTC can make you rich" is not valid for these 98% of all addresses. These 98% should have much more than” less than 1 BTC” by now. These people missed the boat too, or rather were sitting on the wrong boat. I don't even speak about all the people that lost money, or all they had, on crypto's.
My son who is 25 years younger than me, quit trading crypto's after two years. He says now it was a very good decision. He is daytrading the ES, for which I gave him the knowledge.
If you analyze the addresses carefully you will see that only after the 2017 high, people started to join as from that moment on the number of addresses went up. So the majority of crypto trader/holders, started after the high in december 2017. From that high at around $20,000 we went to $47,600 today. So 2.38 times higher in 4 years. Up 138% in 4 years is just 34.5% a year. Not that spectacular.
I would argue that regret fuels the last stages of bubbles in general as those who decide at last to enter rather then remain bears, become often bagholders.
The bagholders are the millions of 98% of small adresses from people who have no money and no experience or real knowledge about the financial markets, but dream to get rich starting from nickels and dimes. It is also the herd behavior. It is cool to have crypto's, just like it was, 30 years ago, cool to smoke when you were 15 years old, feeling you were a real man already. Like the Marlboro cowboy, who finally died from long cancer. Which proofs, after many years, that he took the wrong decision to become "a real man".
