Bidu about to tank down below $80

OK, so to summarize:

In this thread so far, I am batting .1000.
...but not only was every pick here a hit- All of these picks were actually <b>crushing, grand slam, out of the park home runs.</b>
Not only were all three picks massive winners, but the moves came <b>immediately</b> after I called them (no waiting around for weeks- you could take your big gains within 24 hours of the entry.)
If anyone can find me a comparable performance by anyone else, anywhere on the history of the internet- I'd really like to see it.

OK, now that all my hubristic crap is out of the way, I can post my 4th pick. :D ...

$VIX SEP 14 puts are trading at $1.65
$VIX SEP 12.50 puts are trading at $.50

<b>You will see both of these contracts down over 30% next week.</b>
I'm already short these, and neither one will move much against me.
Little to no pain, plenty of gain.

__________

<i>Note: $VIX options are 'semi-exotic', European exercise, non-standard expiry date contracts. The rules of this game are different than with standard option contracts. Don't trade unfamiliar instruments before you learn what they are.

The risk involved in shorting naked $VIX puts is <b>not</b> comparable to the risks of shorting naked equity puts. Stocks can go to zero, but the $VIX cannot.
</i>
 
Mortgaged my house and sold my car to raise capital. I'm in!!!!!....................kidding :D :D Good luck with those trades. Looks pretty good. :) I see the puts climbed along with the market here lately.
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:


<i>Note: $VIX options are 'semi-exotic', European exercise, non-standard expiry date contracts. The rules of this game are different than with standard option contracts. Don't trade unfamiliar instruments before you learn what they are.

The risk involved in shorting naked $VIX puts is <b>not</b> comparable to the risks of shorting naked equity puts. Stocks can go to zero, but the $VIX cannot.
</i>
More...

okay, since you mentioned it, would you mind taking some more time and explain a noob what you're talking about? :)
Why are they non standard? How can I see it?
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

OK, so to summarize:

In this thread so far, I am batting .1000.
...but not only was every pick here a hit- All of these picks were actually <b>crushing, grand slam, out of the park home runs.</b>
Not only were all three picks massive winners,

If anyone can find me a comparable performance by anyone else, anywhere on the history of the internet- I'd really like to see it.

OK, now that all my hubristic crap is out of the way, I can post my 4th pick. :D ...

$VIX SEP 14 puts are trading at $1.65
$VIX SEP 12.50 puts are trading at $.50

<b>You will see both of these contracts down over 30% next week.</b>
I'm already short these, and neither one will move much against me.
Little to no pain, plenty of gain.

__________
More...

RM, you are batting "1.000" not ".100" that's just 1 out of 10.

Man oh man, does this guy talk like me or what after one of my many grand slams!

Yes, you can find comparable performance on the internet, and you don't have to go far. Just read thorns predictions!

I count you as 2 for 2 (sorry). This vix trade is not like trading a stock. But I will be watching. Interesting the discount to actual value on the put side. Good luck with the trade!
 
RM, I just read thru this thread and I must say that's impressive work. No doubt you have a personality disorder (a true megalomaniac), your politics are misguided, your taste in literature is questionable (i am taking my cue here from your handle which comes from an Ayn Rand novel...) but you really are a very very talented trader, and to risk adding to that already incredible-sized ego of yours, I'd say you are a true artist of the markets. Kudos.
 
Quote from thorn:

Interesting the discount to actual value on the put side.
More...

The VIX options are priced based on the VIX futures contract VIX/U6-CV which closed at 129.50. multiply by .1 for approximation to spot vix. You can see it's currently trading at a premium to spot. As expiry approaches, VIX futures converges to spot. There are a few more moving parts in these options than your typical equity option.

GL RM, I sold some 12.5's(30) and 14 puts(16). I am also holding a vix call calendar spread, which imo is almost free money. I see there were over 800 12.5's and over 450 14 puts traded today. As long as there is a swift correction in the market in the next few weeks, this trade should do well. A constant,slow drift up is the only thing that will hurt this trade. *fingers crossed* :)
 
Ive been monitoring this thread to see when RM predicted #4...Of course, I discovered this thread too late and missed the first 3.

However, before reading his prediction, I went long VIX calls before the bell....coincidence?


RM, do you see any thing wrong with this strategy, as opposed to short puts since they are both bullish positions on the VIX.

I know the calls tend to have low delta and can be priced inefficiently when in the money.

I bought the OCT 12's

Thanks,

Bob
 
<i>RM, I just read thru this thread and I must say that's impressive work. No doubt you have a personality disorder</i>

--->Just one? :D

<i>(a true megalomaniac)</i>

-----> That word sucks, because it can mean two entirely different things. One of the definitions fits perfectly, while the other is just dead wrong. If you choose to read more of my posts, you'll know exactly which is which.

meg·a·lo·ma·ni·a:
1)A psychopathological condition characterized by delusional fantasies of wealth, power, or omnipotence.

2)An obsession with grandiose or extravagant things or actions.
______________________________


<i>I am also holding a vix call calendar spread, which imo is almost free money.</i>

-----> You know, I almost put on that exact position too- only deciding against it because of the low liquidity. Had they not taken out my offers, I wouldn't have gotten into the short-puts trade either. (Wide spreads in those things)
___________


<i>I bought the OCT 12's</i>

----> Ugh... no, I honestly don't like this at all.
If that were my position, I'd try to ditch it next week, regardless of what the market does.
Yes, the market is currently very overbought... But IMO, SPY will not trade <b>anywhere near</b> this summer's double bottom until after the mid-term elections (if ever).

Note: I did answer Bob, but generally speaking, I usually DON'T respond to random 'do you like this position' queries.
 
-----> That word sucks, because it can mean two entirely different things. One of the definitions fits perfectly, while the other is just dead wrong. If you choose to read more of my posts, you'll know exactly which is which.

meg·a·lo·ma·ni·a:
1)A psychopathological condition characterized by delusional fantasies of wealth, power, or omnipotence.

2)An obsession with grandiose or extravagant things or actions.
______________________________



Lemme guess.....you are number ???.......perhaps I shouldnt answer :D
 
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