Biden 2020

[UsualName]

The problem with Joe is that he keeps an extraordinarily light schedule and can barely handle it without gaffes. Trump makes plenty of gaffs but also keeps a monster schedule out on the trail along with his day job.

No one is saying that gaffs are the only problem Joe has. His biggest problem is related to a serious lack of enthusiasm and an inability to define his positions or inability to have them understood anyway. Trump may gaff but it is in the context of massive crowds and no one- but no one- leaves without understanding his America First message. Joe may gaff and that is not pretty but even if they shrug and accept it, then they just fall back into some vague feeling that someone said that he is the one who can beat Trump and he has been around a long time so that feels good.

Joe is not going to be the nominee anyway....so fuck him....let him do whatever he's gotta do. The issue will be how Trump can hold up against Warren. And I have conceded that she is a good, smart, and vigorous campaigner. Although she has other problems such as being clinically obnoxious, devious, and to the left of Che Guevera.

Amazing how many people, especially lefties, are just focused on whether Joe can make it to the election. There are years ahead on the job too that should be considered. Can I get a big DUH! on that?

No. Biden could be the president in his sleep. Whether he will be a capable president is not an issue and whether he would be a better president than trump isn’t a very good debate for you.

Trumps bullshit is played out and baked in. Biden’s biggest problem is getting through the dem primary. It will be easier for Biden to beat trump than any other dem candidate.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Somewhat breaking bad news for Joe:

Monmouth poll puts him in statistical tie with Comrade Bernie and Pocahonky.

ie. Joe is down double digits from June. Not the right direction. Up is good, very good. Down, not so good.

Keep in mind that Joe's entire raison d'etre is that he is the best one to beat Trump. When he loses that top of the pack status there will be some serious "hmmmmmm" occurring among voters, if not already.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

It will be easier for Biden to beat trump than any other dem candidate.

Oh, we are not debating whether he is the best that the dems have or not. I dont agree with that but - as we know- it does not matter to me because he is not going to get the nomination.

But even if he did, saying that "it would be easier for Biden than any other dem candidate" does not mean he is not still complete crap as a candidate. There are not any good candidates in that pack.

And if he is elected- not gonna happen because he is not going to be the nominee- then we need to start talking about the 25th amendment right off. He is too far gone to be president and the rigors of campaigning will destroy the five or six brain cells he has left.

 

[UsualName]

Oh, we are not debating whether he is the best that the dems have or not. I dont agree with that but - as we know- it does not matter to me because he is not going to get the nomination.

But even if he did, saying that "it would be easier for Biden than any other dem candidate" does not mean he is not still complete crap as a candidate. There are not any good candidates in that pack.

And if he is elected- not gonna happen because he is not going to be the nominee- then we need to start talking about the 25th amendment right off. He is too far gone to be president and the rigors of campaigning will destroy the five or six brain cells he has left.

We’re also not debating whether Trump is the best the Republicans have either.

Whether or not Biden can do the job isn’t a real debate and in a lot of ways his being older is better. This country needs a fair transition from the mess that is Trump. Sometimes the old statesman is just what is needed.

Biden’s problem is much bigger in the primary than the general. There’s an insurgence within and from without on the left. These types have to be folded back in before the democrats end up like the republicans under trump - then we would be proper fucked.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

We’re also not debating whether Trump is the best the Republicans have either.

Whether or not Biden can do the job isn’t a real debate and in a lot of ways his being older is better. This country needs a fair transition from the mess that is Trump. Sometimes the old statesman is just what is needed.

Biden’s problem is much bigger in the primary than the general. There’s an insurgence within and from without on the left. These types have to be folded back in before the democrats end up like the republicans under trump - then we would be proper fucked.

It's a waste of gumflapping. Biden has lost his clear front runner status and is hovering around even with Warren and Bernie.

I will play along with the last few weeks of serious discussion about Joe, for whatever entertainment value there is. And, if you are having trouble letting go of him, then I am here for you.

But Joe is NOT going to be the nominee- so analyze it some more if you need to- but then start moving over to Warren so that your occasionally valid analysis will apply to what is actually going on in the real world and will be worth reading. Go through your grieving with Joe, hug the corpse or whatever, but start thinking about moving on to Warren who is going to be the nominee. She is going to need your spin.

 

[UsualName]

It's a waste of gumflapping. Biden has lost is clear front runner status and is hovering around even with Warren and Bernie.

I will play along with the last few weeks of serious discussion about Joe, for whatever entertainment value there is. And, if you are having trouble letting go of him, then I am here for you.

But Joe is NOT going to be the nominee- so analyze it some more if you need to- but then start moving over to Warren so that your occasionally valid analysis will apply to what is actually going on in the real world and will be worth reading. Go through your grieving with Joe, hug the corpse or whatever, but start thinking about moving on to Warren who is going to be the nominee. She is going to need your spin.

We’ll see. My issue with you today is not who will win the dem primary anyway, it’s whether Biden is too old to be the president.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

We’ll see. My issue with you today is not who will win the dem primary anyway, it’s whether Biden is too old to be the president.

Okay. Well, the good news is that I think Joe is as sharp as he ever was.

And the bad news is that Joe is still as sharp as he ever was.

 

[UsualName]

Monmouth poll takeaways:

It’s an outlier for polls during the same period but could be a leading indicator too.

Big MoE +/- 5.7 (298 sample size for this poll. By comparison Fox had a sample of 1100 and the hill almot 800 in their latest polls).

“Medicare for all” is not well understood by democrats. Dem voters like the phrase but want to keep private insurance options with a public option.

Steyer missed with only two days to go.

Williamson hit two percent and needs one more poll.

Gabbard aint looking like she’s making it to the September debates.

Gillibrand should drop out soon.

Biden is still as strong in the early states.

*i don’t trust the cross tabs on this poll without at least another two confirming where the drop offs are but Warren and Sanders picking up lost Biden support this early doesn’t make sense on its face.

I’m still rummaging through this poll but this is my first take. Updating as I go...

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Monmouth poll takeaways:

It’s an outlier for polls during the same period but could be a leading indicator too.

Big MoE +/- 5.7

The big takeaway is that Biden is down 20 points from June and Warren is up. The margin of error cannot make that go away.

Right now, candidates should be most concerned about direction, and not micro-analyze the actual numbers.

Accordingly, the direction for both Biden and Kamala is ultra-EL SUCKO. And the direction for Warren is good- not spectacular but very, very good. Bernie sort of be bouncing around a little. He went down some points and seems to be up again. Mostly Biden fall-out. It has go somewhere, so he and Warren are splitting it for now.

So- takeaway is- Big downer for Biden and big downer for Harris- not because she fell a lot but because she just is not gaining as the months go by. The little hit on Joe got her a sugar high for a month.

At this stage, Bernie and Warren are joined at the hip to defend the "progressive" platform. But Bernie is not going to be the nominee, and Warren knows that eventually she will need to take Bernie's supporters bigtime. They are wisely going at it in steps. Take care of Joe first, and deal with each other later.

 

[UsualName]

The big takeaway is that Biden is down 20 points from June and Warren is up. The margin of error cannot make that go away.

Right now, candidates should be most concerned about direction, and not micro-analyze the actual numbers.

Accordingly, the direction for both Biden and Kamala is ultra-EL SUCKO. And the direction for Warren is good- not spectacular but very, very good. Bernie sort of be bouncing around a little. He went down some points and seems to be up again. Mostly Biden fall-out. It has go somewhere, so he and Warren are splitting it for now.

So- takeaway is- Big downer for Biden and big downer for Harris- not because she fell a lot but because she just is not gaining as the months go by. The little hit on Joe got her a sugar high for a month.

At this stage, Bernie and Warren are joined at the hip to defend the "progressive" platform. But Bernie is not going to be the nominee, and Warren knows that eventually she will need to take Bernie's supporters bigtime. They are wisely going at it in steps. Take care of Joe first, and deal with each other later.

Biden isn’t down 20 points but Warren is steadily up. Warrens rise is due to her decreasing her unfavorables. She is making one promise after the next and it’s having an impact. People are paying attention but she is very vulnerable to the same extent Sanders is.

Pie in the sky may win out. I have always said this election will be about big promises but that will only work against Trump because that is how he got elected and governs. Within the Dem primary there will be much challenge coming her way from the moderates.