Biden 2020

Snarkhund said:
The Dems had better figure out a viable candidate pretty soon
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I think Biden is the only declared candidate who is viable. Biden brings PA back to the Dems.
I voted for Hillary, but but wasn't a happy vote. During the summer I travel round the state quite a bit and my wife and I both thought Trump was going to win PA Based on what we saw and heard while traveling the vast Pennsyltucky middle world of PA. I even was kind of pulling for him vbecause I just felt the whole Hillary thing was to staged, too entitled, etc.

But I can tell you the mood in the middleland has changed. While Trump still has the uneducated white guys for the most part, he does not have anyone else like he did in 2016. He is also losing the farmers. Last week I was up in Schuylkill country way up near Northumberland and Dauphin. I went into a country road bar to grab a bite, and heard something I've not heard before. A group of coal miners, faces black from coal dust, talking about how disappointed they were with Trump and one of them said he's with Biden, and another said he hoped the dems don't f* things up and nominate someone else or he'll just not vote.

Just as surprising as hearing these miners bad mouth Trump was the fact that they were talking politics at all 15 months out from the next election ... these guys will not vote for Sanders or Warren or Buttigieg ... but they will vote for Biden. And all the Dems need is to retake one of the three: PA, Michigan, or Wisconsis, and Trump is gone.

PA goes to Biden, not Trump. Biden could grab Trump's pussy on camera and still win PA.
 
NQurious said:
PA goes to Biden, not Trump. Biden could grab Trump's pussy on camera and still win PA.
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Well, of course, the fly in the ointment is that Joe will need to get the nomination in order for those miners to even be able to vote for him.

Except that Joe is not going to get the nomination. Elizabeth Warren is.

So then if we go back and re-read the very valid points you made in regard to frustrations/disatisfactions with Trump but then ask what they will do when faced with a choice between Trump or Elizabeth Warren, then the guys down at the bar will be ordering several drinks at a time, and they are not for their buddies.

Your conclusion that Joe is going to be the nominee is very logical though and is supported by the data so I have no quibble with that. But I look at more than just the data, and Biden is a dead clown walking. Just need to add time into the mix.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
You conclusion that Joe is going to be the nominee
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I did not say that Biden would be the nominee (though I do hope that he is). I said he is the only Dem candidate who is viable ... meaning a viable alternative to Trump. Trump likely beats any of the remaining field. In 2016, had Sanders been the nominee, I think PA and Michigan would have gone to the Dems. But I do not think Bernie is viable this time around. If the Dems back Warren, they will have made the same mistake they made by backing Hillary instead of Bernie.
 
NQurious said:
I did not say that Biden would be the nominee (though I do hope that he is). I said he is the only Dem candidate who is viable ... meaning a viable alternative to Trump. Trump likely beats any of the remaining field. In 2016, had Sanders been the nominee, I think PA and Michigan would have gone to the Dems. But I do not think Bernie is viable this time around. If the Dems back Warren, they will have made the same mistake they made by backing Hillary instead of Bernie.
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Okay. When you said "PA goes to Trump" that was shorthand for "if Biden is nominated then PA goes to Trump." Alright then. I see your view.
 
NQurious said:
You misquote me:



And yes, if Biden is the nominee, PA goes to Biden, not Trump. Any other Dem currently in the running would find it nearly impossible to win PA.
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I wouldn't say impossible

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NQurious said:
You misquote me:



And yes, if Biden is the nominee, PA goes to Biden, not Trump. Any other Dem currently in the running would find it nearly impossible to win PA.
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Yes, I gaffed and tansposed the names while doing two other things. I think you saw my point though. And gaffes are good right? You better hope so if you are a Biden supporter.

I wonder which Joe Biden your coal miner friends or contacts are familiar with. The pro-coal Joe or the anti-coal Joe? You know he has a different position for different times and audiences. As needed.

Biden: 'No coal plants here in America'

09/23/2008 10:00 AM EDT


https://www.politico.com/blogs/ben-smith/2008/09/biden-no-coal-plants-here-in-america-012157
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
I wonder which Joe Biden your coal miner friends or contacts are familiar with. The pro-coal Joe or the anti-coal Joe?
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I think they are most familiar with Joe from Scranton.

Tony Stark said:
I wouldn't say impossible
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The election eve polls had Hillary ahead in PA as well. I'm telling you that no matter what the polls say, there is no better way to get the reall feel for which way things will go here than to travel the state, and listen to people talk. I spend much of my summer criss crossing PA - I hit nearly every county every other year. Scranton-Wilkes BArre area and the surrounding counties really give one the pulse. Philly and the Philly Burbs - Montco, Chesco, Delaware and Bucks - they think they are the heart of the state. But they are wrong. There is Philly and its burnds, and Pittsburgh and its burbs ... and Kentucky in between them (some politician said this once and I'd credit him if I could remember who it was). But it is true - Blue collar, pro-labor, but conservative on social issue, pro-life, etc. Google it if you want to know lol

Here's a question: I think Trump stands to lose both PA and Michigan. Are there any states that Hillary won in 2016 that have a reasonable chance of flipping to Trump?
 
NQurious said:
Here's a question: I think Trump stands to lose both PA and Michigan. Are there any states that Hillary won in 2016 that have a reasonable chance of flipping to Trump?
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New Hampshire. Hillary won by only 2000 or so votes.

Putting it withing the margin of "reasonable chance" which is not the same as saying that Trump will take it. Lowendowski is probably going to run for the senate there. I dont know if that will be a positive or negative for Trump's numbers. New Hampshire is a mixture of conservative yankees but southern new hampshire is influenced by the lefty boston metro area. But yeh, Trump has a reasonable chance of flipping it. But there are only 4 electoral votes anyway, and electoral votes is what it is all about.

I dont know how warren would play in southern new hampshire because she is not even well liked in her home state. Both of her hometown newspapers, the lefty Globe and not-so-lefty Herald asked her to not run. They hate her too.

The trump campaign alleges that they have a shot at nevada, new mexico, colorado, minnesota, etc but a lot of that is bluster and a prayer, unless Biden or Warren or someone like that is nominated. Then the dems are going to pay a price for that, even if we do not know exactly where yet.
 
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