Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform
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Yesterday I purchased a GBPJPY out-of-them money binary option contract that climbed only ten pips above my strike price, and only during the last hour or so before expiry. So, I had to cash in for $35 instead of the full $75 payout in case it decided to double back, which is exactly what it did.
I'm hoping this out-of-the-money trade goes better for me given that the strike price is only 5 or so pips above where I entered the trade...
It looks like Nadex has added a "Close" button to their Orders/Positions table. Also, it was only yesterday that I noticed where they give you the option of choosing whether you want a light or dark background/color scheme.
I'm hoping this out-of-the-money trade goes better for me given that the strike price is only 5 or so pips above where I entered the trade...
It looks like Nadex has added a "Close" button to their Orders/Positions table. Also, it was only yesterday that I noticed where they give you the option of choosing whether you want a light or dark background/color scheme.
It turns out that this baby is doing worse, bouncing in and out of profit territory again and again by just a few pips. I therefore opted to cash out for pennies on the dollar (i.e., about eight bucks) three hours before expiry, because who knows what will happen when the Canadian employment and U.S. non farm payroll data is released an hour from now?
Price broke in my favor, as it almost always does following the release of economic data...
Honestly, I think these events are just an excuse for the big multinational/institutional players to push price in the direction they wanted it to go in the first place, and in most cases, has little to do with the news itself. But, I can't afford to risk those times when it actually does react directly to the news, so too bad for me. I'll just have to take my eight dollars ($55 less than the full payout) and be happy.
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After exiting my AUDUSD position for a gain of $8, doing so three hours before expiry in an effort to play it safe before the release of U.S. and Canadian economic data scheduled for about an hour later (thereby forfeiting the additional $55 I would have pocketed had I waited for the full payout) I had high hopes of picking up a good chunk of that cash after all, when about three hours later, a number of pairs began to evidence structures suggesting the likelihood that they might be primed to reverse direction and head back toward the levels from which they came.
I determined that the best two candidates based on my numbers were AUDUSD and GBPUSD, and I was thinking that the Aussie-U.S. dollar might be the better choice, because it had jettisoned itself to a more extreme level, giving it that much more reason to turn around and head the other way, whereas GBPUSD, which was positioned at a less radical level, had much more room to continue to run.
However, there are many times when this kind of situation does not unfold as one might have hoped, because the reason the more remotely positioned asset has reached the level it did was because there were significant (fundamental) factors or influences driving it to do so, making it stubborn or reluctant to relent to any pressure to turn around and head back the other way. And this seems to be what was taking place this morning.
Had I chosen GBPUSD instead of AUDUSD, my contract would have been in the money from the very next hour—no worries...
But no, I had to make the mistake of selecting AUDUSD, and consequently, I found myself waiting hour after hour for the Aussie-U.S. dollar to finally drop...which it never did!
Two hours too late to do me any good...
I determined that the best two candidates based on my numbers were AUDUSD and GBPUSD, and I was thinking that the Aussie-U.S. dollar might be the better choice, because it had jettisoned itself to a more extreme level, giving it that much more reason to turn around and head the other way, whereas GBPUSD, which was positioned at a less radical level, had much more room to continue to run.
However, there are many times when this kind of situation does not unfold as one might have hoped, because the reason the more remotely positioned asset has reached the level it did was because there were significant (fundamental) factors or influences driving it to do so, making it stubborn or reluctant to relent to any pressure to turn around and head back the other way. And this seems to be what was taking place this morning.
Had I chosen GBPUSD instead of AUDUSD, my contract would have been in the money from the very next hour—no worries...
But no, I had to make the mistake of selecting AUDUSD, and consequently, I found myself waiting hour after hour for the Aussie-U.S. dollar to finally drop...which it never did!
Two hours too late to do me any good...
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Monday / June 14, 2021 / 10:40 AM PST
Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is entirely out of development and is now being fully implemented in my traditional Forex account(s).
It has resulted in forecast models which I suspect might grant me the ability to purchase Nadex in-the-money binary option contracts that always payout at expiry, not to mention, freed me up to explore this possibility, given how profitable this could potentially be if true.
For example, I have just witnessed AUDJPY's twenty-minute trend turn north, to join a two-hour trend that is already bullish. This leads me to believe there is virtually 0% probability the rate will turn around and crawl back below 84.76 within the next hour and twenty-five minutes, returning a measly $2.60 profit after transaction fees in the process.
To master this system of trading, I'm throwing caution to the wind, entering any position I judge to have zero odds of losing, no matter how small the return. I will use my performance results to hone this approach, if necessary, until it is as perfect as I can get it.
If at that point I conclude it is working as well as I envisioned, I'll switch from demo mode to my live Nadex account. If not, I'll simply incorporate what I learned, if anything, into the day trading routine I use with my traditional account(s).
(Here's a Thought: Consider entering positions only when the 20-minute, 2-hour AND 40-minute trends are aligned.)
This was a successful trade..
Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is entirely out of development and is now being fully implemented in my traditional Forex account(s).
It has resulted in forecast models which I suspect might grant me the ability to purchase Nadex in-the-money binary option contracts that always payout at expiry, not to mention, freed me up to explore this possibility, given how profitable this could potentially be if true.
For example, I have just witnessed AUDJPY's twenty-minute trend turn north, to join a two-hour trend that is already bullish. This leads me to believe there is virtually 0% probability the rate will turn around and crawl back below 84.76 within the next hour and twenty-five minutes, returning a measly $2.60 profit after transaction fees in the process.
To master this system of trading, I'm throwing caution to the wind, entering any position I judge to have zero odds of losing, no matter how small the return. I will use my performance results to hone this approach, if necessary, until it is as perfect as I can get it.
If at that point I conclude it is working as well as I envisioned, I'll switch from demo mode to my live Nadex account. If not, I'll simply incorporate what I learned, if anything, into the day trading routine I use with my traditional account(s).
(Here's a Thought: Consider entering positions only when the 20-minute, 2-hour AND 40-minute trends are aligned.)
This was a successful trade..
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Monday / June 14, 2021 / 7:10 PM PST
The Aussie-U.S. dollar is currently located at the first lower-level of the two-hour price range. (I have designated two, more extreme support levels beyond this.) Consequently, I'm anticipating that the effect of mean reversion (regression toward the mean) is going to come into play here, and as a result, that price will be higher than 0.7694 at expiry 52 minutes from now for a payout of $15.25 after transaction fees...
Unless something drastic happens in the next six-and-a-half minutes, this contract should still be in-the-money at expiry...
This trade was a success..
The Aussie-U.S. dollar is currently located at the first lower-level of the two-hour price range. (I have designated two, more extreme support levels beyond this.) Consequently, I'm anticipating that the effect of mean reversion (regression toward the mean) is going to come into play here, and as a result, that price will be higher than 0.7694 at expiry 52 minutes from now for a payout of $15.25 after transaction fees...
Unless something drastic happens in the next six-and-a-half minutes, this contract should still be in-the-money at expiry...
This trade was a success..
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This contract is only worth $8.50 after fees...
The rationale for purchasing it includes the following:
UPDATE: This trade ended with success, but price crossed back below the 13-minute baseline. So, you might want to hold off on trades such as this until your observe confirmation from the 20-minute baseline as well.
The rationale for purchasing it includes the following:
- The strike price is below the 16-hour temporal support level.
- The strike price is below the 30-hour temporal support level.
- Price looks as if it is being rejected by the lower band of the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.18% deviation.
- Candlesticks appear to be bouncing off the temporal support levels, crossing above the 13-minute baseline, which is beginning to hook upward.
UPDATE: This trade ended with success, but price crossed back below the 13-minute baseline. So, you might want to hold off on trades such as this until your observe confirmation from the 20-minute baseline as well.
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Borrowing from Micheal Behe, for now at least, I'll be referring to the style of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) I'm currently attempting to flesh out as IC Trading (for "irreducible complexity") rather than Consensus Trading—which is a term that already has two other meanings.
This implies that IC Trading is a system composed of several interacting parts where the removal of any one of the parts causes the whole to cease functioning. One critical aspect of the approach are three zones of support and three zones of resistance serving as minimum thresholds which must be reached before any position may be entered. The current resistance zones for USDJPY are pictured below.
If I get a sell signal while candlesticks are in contact with or within any of these three regions, I will purchase an in-the-money binary option put contract with expiry as close to 24 hours away as possible, and then wait to see what happens.
IC Trading will call for confirmation from the 6-hour baseline rather than the 20-minute baseline.
This implies that IC Trading is a system composed of several interacting parts where the removal of any one of the parts causes the whole to cease functioning. One critical aspect of the approach are three zones of support and three zones of resistance serving as minimum thresholds which must be reached before any position may be entered. The current resistance zones for USDJPY are pictured below.
If I get a sell signal while candlesticks are in contact with or within any of these three regions, I will purchase an in-the-money binary option put contract with expiry as close to 24 hours away as possible, and then wait to see what happens.
IC Trading will call for confirmation from the 6-hour baseline rather than the 20-minute baseline.
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I forgot about this plan and therefore purchased the contact belatedly, so that it will only pay $12.25 after fees if still in-the-money at expiry.
This 2-hour AUDUSD binary option call contract...
...was purchased based on the re-conceptualized chart configuration pictured below, which includes the estimated hourly price range and hourly trend to facilitate the selection of entry points/times and strike prices for two-hour contracts.