Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform

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Sunday / March 7, 2021 / 4:00 PM PST

So, here I go with Test Case No. Three. Though the reward-to-risk ratio is less than an amateurish 4:6, the probability of the contract being out-of-the-money at expiry is supposedly near zero percent. I therefore look forward to seeing how this plays out in the end.

 

[expiated]

So, here I go with Test Case No. Three. Though the reward-to-risk ratio is less than an amateurish 4:6, the probability of the contract being out-of-the-money at expiry is supposedly near zero percent. I therefore look forward to seeing how this plays out in the end.

AUDUSD dropped lower instead of climbing higher. So, I purchased three addition contracts at the next lowest strike price to recoup my loss in case the first contract was out-of-the-money at expiry, figuring that if the chance that it would be so was near zero, the probability of my subsequent trade not working out would be infinitely close to zero.

Of course, this means risking a potentially significant loss, and if I were working with a mere $100 trading account, the subsequent purchases would not have been possible. (I also bought a GBPUSD binary option call contract when this pair displayed signs of bouncing off both statistical and temporal support not long ago, so I hope it doesn't hold any surprises.)

 

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Wednesday / March 10, 2021 / 7:05 AM PST

I regard this as kind of silly. My original trade is like 60 pips in the money. Yet, if I take profit early (which is what I'm just about to do) I won't even collect half of the full $24.25 payout coming if AUDUSD is still in-the-money three days from now.

Rather than take my $100, purchase one contract at the beginning of the week, and then have to wait around all week long to see if I gain $25 or lose $75, better I should just trade with a traditional Forex broker day to day, and collect $10 each day to add up to $50 by the end of the week—twice as much as I would have generated via Nadex...

So... I won't be going back to trading my Nadex live account at the end of this month (as I was thinking about doing) after all...

I think the better choice is to purchase weekly contracts when the trade is confirmed by the 16-hour baseline AND there is a pullback in price to at least the 12-hour temporal support/resistance level.

 

[expiated]

I regard this as kind of silly.

Okay then, see if entering positions in the direction of the eight-hour trend as rates bounce off the 12-hour and/or 40-hour temporal support/resistance levels—especially if the eight-hour trend is headed in the same direction as the six-day trend—offers daily trade opportunities that are virtually always still in-the-money at expiry, as opposed to purchasing just one single contract at the start of the week...

(Hey! What happened to Nadex's darker color scheme?)

 

[expiated]

Okay then, see if entering positions in the direction of the eight-hour trend as rates bounce off the 12-hour and/or 40-hour temporal support/resistance levels—especially if the eight-hour trend is headed in the same direction as the six-day trend—offers daily trade opportunities that are virtually always still in-the-money at expiry, as opposed to purchasing just one single contract at the start of the week...

I'm purchased the contracts below based on the above principles. They're not perfect trades because it took me until this morning to put all the pieces together (which required by to configure an applicable 15-minute chart setup) which is why I purchased them so late in the 24-hour market cycle.

It will be a good sign if both positions are still in-the-money at expiry given that they were not ideal trades (as the ones I make during the remainder of the week hopefully will be).

 

[expiated]

Monday / March 15, 2021 / 9:45 PM PST

At 0.8604, EURGBP has ventured into a region of temporal and statistical resistance. Consequently, once if it forms a red hourly candlestick, I will have to consider purchasing an in-the-money Nadex binary option put contract.

Yet, I will not be 100% comfortable in doing so…

For one thing, the eight-hour trend is more-or-less neutral. It would be better if it were bearish. But, at least the six-day trend IS bearish, so if nothing else, I will have that going in my favor.

Still, there are at least three other factors that concern me. First is the fact that, on the daily chart, the rate is engulfed within a region of statistical support near the bottom of the monthly price range. Second is that it has already bounced off temporal support at 0.8538—not once—but twice! Third is that the day-to-day trend is bullish AND price is presently located above the two-day baseline.

Nonetheless, history suggests that the six-day baseline and two-day temporal resistance should prevail, so I’ll have to see if this holds true, if and when the time comes.

 

[expiated]

History suggests that the six-day baseline and two-day temporal resistance should prevail, so I’ll have to see if this holds true, if and when the time comes.

Test Case #3 failed...

...and two times out of three is not good enough. Too bad.

However, I am short EURGBP once again in that the pair looks to have bounced off upper resistance near 0.8641. This happens to coincide with the four-hour price range, so I will interested to see if the pair follows through this time.

These were out-of-the money contracts. So, if they are in-the-money at expiry three hours from now, they will recoup my earlier loss and add a little bit on top, for good measure...

(Again, with at $100 account, such a stunt would not have been possible.)

 

[expiated]

As best as I can tell, this is the last potential NADEX strategy I have before I will have to abandon the platform altogether, yet again.

New Test Case #1:

 

[expiated]

New Test Cases #2 and #3:

Unless something radical transpires in the next twenty-three minutes, contracts two and three should still be in-the-money at expiry. If I can repeat this seven more times in a row, I might be tempted to try it with real money...

 

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New Test Cases #4, #5 and #6: