Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform
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I probably won't be home at expiry three hours from now. But thus far, things are looking relatively good, with the rate currently located roughly 67 pips above the strike price...
However, I think I'm going to end this thread here, at least for a while. With the growth of my traditional Forex account, I'll soon be able to increase my trade size to where I can make almost $8 per trade easily, with nowhere near as much risk as I'm looking at when purchasing in-the-money contracts like this one.
So, why bother with NADEX? There's no longer any justification for it at all.
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Yeah, I think I'm finished with their platform. The only reason to trade with them would be that you live in the USA, you have limited capital to work with, and you want to make money quickly. However, if you have limited financial capital, this still doesn't make much sense, because at $100 per contract, you could lose it all rather quickly. Yet, with even an extremely modest balance in a traditional Forex trading account and a semi-swing style of trading, you can begin to see hope of the $8 per trade I wrote of nine days ago...
Better to save up until you have enough to trade with a traditional broker. The bottom line is, Nadex simply has nothing to offer me anymore.
Borat, who wants to make money quickly?
Imagine! A bucket shop offering mkts on digitals and capped (cap and floors) futures and it sucks? We're really talking about an $8 expectation here?
Friday, April 16, 2021
Use the slope of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines to establish in which direction rates are headed on a more-or-less day-to-day basis.
Wait for price to make contact with temporal support or resistance on the "wrong" side of these trend lines at the 24-hour, 64-hour (2.67 days) and 3⅓-day levels and evaluate how often price violates these measures AFTER having been rejected by them—if ever!
If you discover that price NEVER violates one or more of these measures, begin purchasing in-the-money binary option contracts when rates are rejected at the corresponding level(s), with expiry scheduled as close to the time of entry as is reasonable based on historical price action.
P.S. Adding the 4-hour temporal support/resistance levels into the mix would be redundant given that the 3.5 hour temporal support/resistance levels are already plotted on the chart(s).
If you want to make money very, very quickly, and the following configuration would make it possible to implement a strategy resulting in successful trades 100% of the time, then trading via Nadex might become a viable alternative once again. So, please look into this next week...
Use the slope of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines to establish in which direction rates are headed on a more-or-less day-to-day basis.
Wait for price to make contact with temporal support or resistance on the "wrong" side of these trend lines at the 24-hour, 64-hour (2.67 days) and 3⅓-day levels and evaluate how often price violates these measures AFTER having been rejected by them—if ever!
If you discover that price NEVER violates one or more of these measures, begin purchasing in-the-money binary option contracts when rates are rejected at the corresponding level(s), with expiry scheduled as close to the time of entry as is reasonable based on historical price action.
P.S. Adding the 4-hour temporal support/resistance levels into the mix would be redundant given that the 3.5 hour temporal support/resistance levels are already plotted on the chart(s).
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Monday / April 19, 2021 / 2:02 AM PST
In reviewing the above (see Post #86) it is now no longer making sense to me, so I'm going to have to look at it more carefully after I wake up later this morning.
Instead, my "new" first test trade is going to be this in-the-money one-hour binary option call contract with a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio executed based on the rate having arrived at the outer edge where the four-hour price range, eight-hour price range, and 15-day temporal support level all converge, with the success of the trade dependent on price performing some manner of mean reversion (regression toward the mean).
I'm thinking it might be that the only "safe" time to use this (see below) is when the five baselines are all "properly" aligned, in which case, the referenced description once again seems coherent...
Also, use the 4½-day temporal support/resistance levels instead of 3½-days. (This offers a clearer picture of the ultimate direction in which rates are headed.)
In reviewing the above (see Post #86) it is now no longer making sense to me, so I'm going to have to look at it more carefully after I wake up later this morning.
Instead, my "new" first test trade is going to be this in-the-money one-hour binary option call contract with a 1:3 reward-to-risk ratio executed based on the rate having arrived at the outer edge where the four-hour price range, eight-hour price range, and 15-day temporal support level all converge, with the success of the trade dependent on price performing some manner of mean reversion (regression toward the mean).
I'm thinking it might be that the only "safe" time to use this (see below) is when the five baselines are all "properly" aligned, in which case, the referenced description once again seems coherent...
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My second "new" test trade is going to be this in-the-money 10-hour binary option put contract with a 1:12 reward-to-risk ratio executed based on the rate being rejected at the outer edge of the convergence of the 4-hour, 8-hour, and 2-day price ranges along with the 15-day temporal resistance level; again, with the success of the trade dependent on price performing some manner of mean reversion (regression toward the mean).
I can't actually execute the third test trade—a bona fide Nadex Stategy setup—given that AUDUSD still has three hours before expiry. So, hypothetically...
The slopes of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines all indicate that USDCAD is bearish within a day-to-day context.
Price made contact with the 24-hour temporal resistance level on the "wrong" side of the 16-hour and 1⅓-day baselines about 9 hours ago, and was rejected there (as well as the "wrong" side of the 2-day baseline) about 6 hours ago.
This suggests that there is little probability the rate will climb back up to the 1.2540 strike price before the next scheduled expiry three-and-a-half hours from now at 8:00 PM PST.
The most favorable reward-to-risk ratio within the last ten minutes or so was about 1:6, though it's now down to 1:12.
The slopes of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines all indicate that USDCAD is bearish within a day-to-day context.
Price made contact with the 24-hour temporal resistance level on the "wrong" side of the 16-hour and 1⅓-day baselines about 9 hours ago, and was rejected there (as well as the "wrong" side of the 2-day baseline) about 6 hours ago.
This suggests that there is little probability the rate will climb back up to the 1.2540 strike price before the next scheduled expiry three-and-a-half hours from now at 8:00 PM PST.
The most favorable reward-to-risk ratio within the last ten minutes or so was about 1:6, though it's now down to 1:12.
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The AUDUSD trade turned against me, but then again, it wasn't a bona fide Nadex Strategy setup, so it wasn't a legitimate trade in the first place. On the other hand, the USDCAD trade was, and it worked out rather nicely. Here is another bona fide trade (or close to it)...
The slopes of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines all indicate that USDJPY is bearish within a day-to-day context.
Though price has been in proximity of the 24-hour temporal resistance level for the last two or three hours, it has not actually made contact, nor is it located on the "wrong" side of the 16-hour (or any other) baseline(s).
Nonetheless, price action suggests there is little probability the rate will climb to the 108.60 strike price, which is located above the 24-hour temporal resistance level. So, I'll check back to see where it is seven hours from now. (The reward-to-risk ratio for this expiry is about 1:6.)
The slopes of the 16-hour, 1⅓-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day baselines all indicate that USDJPY is bearish within a day-to-day context.
Though price has been in proximity of the 24-hour temporal resistance level for the last two or three hours, it has not actually made contact, nor is it located on the "wrong" side of the 16-hour (or any other) baseline(s).
Nonetheless, price action suggests there is little probability the rate will climb to the 108.60 strike price, which is located above the 24-hour temporal resistance level. So, I'll check back to see where it is seven hours from now. (The reward-to-risk ratio for this expiry is about 1:6.)