Quote from Martinghoul:
Let's be accurate here, shall we? At no point during our conversation, do I recall making a statement that QE1, 2 and Twist worked. I said that I believed that they were warranted by the economic backdrop, which is a bit different.
Fair enough, but you have to be fair in return. If you supported QE2, you must have thought QE1 did something positive, or else why would you support the next one? etc.
Quote from Martinghoul:
I have given you things that have, in fact, improved. The charts that you have commented on in the CR article don't just talk about the "extrapolated bright future". The extrapolations are in fact based on the data, which the charts summarize. Specifically:
- Total housing starts, seasonally adj ann rate: Jan12 - 723k, Dec12 - 983k
- Local and state govt employment: Jan12 - 18.979mil, Dec12 - 19.185mil
- US budget deficit: 2012 - $1089bn, 2013 (CBO estimate) - $642bn
- Total household debt balance: 2012 Q1 - $11.44trn; 2013 Q1 - $11.23trn
- Household debt svc ratio: 2102 Q1 - 10.78%, 2013 Q1 - 10.49%
Two data points on a chart (above) doesn't exactly constitute recovery. But whatever. My point still remains that the Fed that you support does not feel that the economy is improving, else they would have ended QE. So either their criteria changed, or yours did to stop supporting it.
Quote from Martinghoul:
Now here's my question to you. Given the state of the US economy during 2008 and, subsequently, in 2010, 2011 and 2012, what would you have done, given how you feel about QE?
I would have let the system cleanse itself. I would have used the scenario to institute strong fiscal integrity, and split speculative banks from their depositors (Glass-Steagall or something like it). I would have jailed those responsible for fraud and pursued justice on those in TBTF banks that knowingly took on too much risk and brought the system down. I would have clawed back bonuses. I would have let GM face chapter 11 and re-org itself the way Chapter 11 allowed it to. Those who took risk (bond holders) in companies around the world would have suffered losses, the way they were supposed to. IF government money was to be used, then it would have been used to protect depositors from loss, up to 100,000$ as was FDIC policy.
Would there have been chaos? You betcha. About 6 months of hell - or maybe even a year. Then, slowly, we would have crawled back to a sound financial system that was worthy of trust. I would have never been re-elected, I'm sure, but the country would have been much better off for it. Instead, we are worse off than before the crisis. Banks are more bloated and riskier than ever. Mark to Market is still suspended. Speculators are at it again, enabled and emboldened because they now know the Fed has their back. We have high unemployment, record debt and the Fed's balance sheet is atrocious. And we've got nothing to show for it. Nothing is fixed - at all.
It's a cesspool.
