Best Santelli Rant in a while..
- Thread starter Tsing Tao
- Start date
Right, sure thing... We can have lengthy macro discussion about the various bits and pieces that are, undoubtedly, pointing in various directions. However, we're unlikely to convince each other of the merits of our arguments.
So, given we're all traders here, why don't we settle this like traders, with a bet? Let's find something in the mkt or in the data that can serve as a proxy for who's right about the future path of the economy. I am willing to put money on the table, once we agree on mutually acceptable terms. The rest of the community can be the judge.
each of us has their own perspectives; for me the economy is booming. i own real estate in ffld cty ct and a business..(besides my trader pl posts)
i just got paid 6 yr old money from a lien i had with interest due to a home selling for over asking. my phones are ringing off the hook currently. rents are being paid more on time.
i have hired more people this yr with benefits also.
so in my world...the economy is the best since 2007 (which was miserable 08-12, lucky to have survived)
trust me, i am not the only one doing well either.
That was a nice ole'! You and El Matador are a good pair, it would seem
If you don't want to or cannot or refuse to debate any of the data I presented, I guess that's the best way to say so.I'm open to the idea of a bet, but I'm not sure you'll be able to create a bet that judges, definitively, whether QE should or should not be in place, or whether the economy as a whole is or is not improving.
I am open to all ideas... I am not looking to create a bet myself. I am looking for us to create a mutually satisfactory one that we're all happy with.Quote from Tsing Tao:
That was a nice ole'! You and El Matador are a good pair, it would seem
I'm open to the idea of a bet, but I'm not sure you'll be able to create a bet that judges, definitively, whether QE should or should not be in place, or whether the economy as a whole is or is not improving.
I mean the simplest way would be just a bet on interest rates by some particular date. Alternatively, we can choose home sales, nominal or real GDP, budget deficit, tax receipts, NFP, unemployment rate, participation rate, or any combination of the above.
The problem with things like betting on interest rates is that you're asking me (or you) to put faith in what the Fed is going to do. Given that I'd never have believed the Fed would resort to it's current level of insanity in the first place, that doesn't bode well for me predicting future insanity.
Again, if you want to bet, put up something definitive. If you don't, don't. I'm not here to put a wager on some random economic statistic. To sum up how the thread has gone thus far...
1. I posted Rick Santelli.
2. You posted that you dislike Rick.
3. We argued why that was, and came up with you not liking him in the end.
4. I asked you questions on the Fed, calling you an apologist of the Fed.
5. You were surprised at this and clarified that you support the institution, but have frequently disagreed with the Fed.
6. Once that was clear, I asked if you supported current QE.
7. You said you supported previous versions, but not the one now.
8. I asked what had changed.
9. You said economic back drop had improved.
10. I asked you for specifics, and you posted an article which didn't have anything that improved, but had a lot of supposition on why economic data would improve.
11. I posted an argument against that article piece by piece.
12. You said we can make a bet, but then said you don't necessarily want a bet (I don't either, so no idea why that is the topic now). All I wanted was an understanding of why you think data has improved, as reasoning for why you no longer support QE.
Did that sum it up correctly? Feel free to tweak.
Huh? Where the heck did that come from? What about my questions that still haven't responded to? Have you missed them in all the discussions?