Believezz's overleveraged Trading Journal

[Laissez Faire]

You are probably right. I'll start thinking about placing mandatory stops.

It may not be a bad idea. Then again - you would probably have gotten stopped out of a nice short position at today's mid-session rally if you had a stop in place.

This sell-off have been everything else than clean, so unless one uses a wide stop or shorted the highs one would most likely have been shaken out multiple times.

No easy answers in this business it seems, but going stop-less is something which one day can bite you in the tail even if it works well most of the time.

Please don't say that, we're all equals here sharing thoughts and helping everyone improve. I am far from any trading guru.

If anything, it's more like I'm learning from everyone's questions and feedback.

You're the one who made 3M in profits from trading.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 4.52M HKD (-300K deposits)

I've decided to scale down on my trading as current levels of exposure are affecting my emotions too much and distracting me from doing other work - of course if I keep winning like I did I could do this full time and quit everything else, but it's clear that I was just lucky and my account could've easily had blown up. I was gambling and I was addicted.

I'm also closing this journal for the same reasons. But I'll still be trading and lurking around this forum.

Thank you all for reading and good luck to everyone's trading!

 

[Laissez Faire]

I've decided to scale down on my trading as current levels of exposure are affecting my emotions too much and distracting me from doing other work - of course if I keep winning like I did I could do this full time and quit everything else, but it's clear that I was just lucky and my account could've easily had blown up. I was gambling and I was addicted.

Sounds like a good decision. I had the impression you were full time trading?

I'm also closing this journal for the same reasons. But I'll still be trading and lurking around this forum.

Thank you all for reading and good luck to everyone's trading!

Thank you for your honesty. I'm sure you're not alone in taking losses, but most won't admit to that.

Like I mentioned yesterday it's hard to hold short leveraged positions in this volatility because the swings are huge. It's not a clean down trend by any means, so unless you shorted the top it will be very hard to hold.

Having a public journal can be negative, I think. Especially if you find yourself having to defend your views or explain yourself. I know myself that when I put forth a comment or view about where the market is going I tend to "want to be right" while if I trade completely in private I'm more flexible and will more readily admit that I was wrong and take the right actions.

Good luck moving forward!

 

[believezz]

Having a public journal can be negative, I think. Especially if you find yourself having to defend your views or explain yourself. I know myself that when I put forth a comment or view about where the market is going I tend to "want to be right" while if I trade completely in private I'm more flexible and will more readily admit that I was wrong and take the right actions.

Exactly! I feel obligated to justify all my decisions. Naturally I start saying what people want to hear instead of what I really think, which in turn affects my own thoughts and disturbs my inner mindset equilibrium.

Sounds like a good decision. I had the impression you were full time trading?

I play poker, I am enrolled in masters of financial mathematics (despite in my mid 30s), and I have a sports betting research project, and I have trading.

Laissez Faire may I ask what you are doing / background?

 

[Overnight]

...

I'm also closing this journal for the same reasons. But I'll still be trading and lurking around this forum.

Thank you all for reading and good luck to everyone's trading!

Well, when you start an "over leveraged" trading system/journal during peak inflation and an unprecedented war in Europe with the VIX pushing 35+ for weeks, WTF did you think was going to happen?

Very silly idea in the first place. Never ever over-lever. Repeat that mantra.

See you in a few years when the markets finally settle back down to normalcy.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 9.94M HKD (-1M deposits)

I'm back. Gonna tackle this again. Maybe I'll post my reasons and thoughts later, maybe not. I need to learn not to care so much what others think of me. If I can't achieve this online anonymously then how can I hope to achieve it irl?

Just bought the book "Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck" by Mark Manson - will read it after finishing the current "Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order" by Ray Dalio

I made a lot of money these couple months. Lost 1M last night though. My FB shorts are losing, I even shorted some FB calls right before earnings surprise (imp vol was 200%... I couldn't help it).

AAPL AMZN earnings will be interesting, I'll probably lower my NQ exposure before the release.

Am continuing shorting US tech at the moment not much changed with regards to my global views.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 10.28M HKD (-1M deposits)

post market earnings (AMZN) saved me last night. I fell asleep accidentally otherwise I wouldve taken some losses before market close.

China tech surge today reinforces my mid-long term long china view. Great fundamentals, cheaply valued, plus Chinese government is now increasing stimulus. I'll gradually increase my long China exposure while maintaining US shorts.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 11.20M HKD (-1M deposits)

weekend positions

 

[believezz]

NAV: 9.66M HKD (-1M deposits)

The afternoon NQ surge last night really hurt.

 

[believezz]

currently going for this:

+20 HSI (21M exposure)
-4 NQ (-8M exposure)
(on top of all the stocks)

i think HSI will go up this afternoon and tomorrow
meanwhile US should be stale/choppy while everyone wait for feds. But do monitor US closely as its volatile times.

Reflecting on the big loss last night... I always lost money when I anticipated market to make small, 1-2 day rebounds. These short-term predictions contradict with my long term bearish view which often leads to indecisive over-trading. I need to lower my exposure on these days and not overreact. Be contend with small exposures and not be greedy by fomo. Markets are usually choppy on these days anyway.