Believezz's overleveraged Trading Journal

B

believezz

At this moment my portfolio NAV is 3.64M HKD

Current positions
short 10 NQ futs (-22M HKD exposure)
short 4 ES futs (-6.7M)
short 1000 FB (-1.6M)
short 4 HSI futs (-4.5M)

I am short 33M exposure despite only 3.6M portfolio NAV. I've had ~50% weekly PNL swings recently. So this should be entertaining for you guys.

I'll try to post my overnight positions every day.

Questions welcomed
 
My current views are
- A global pandemic that's out of control
- Overpriced US markets
- Crypto is a bubble
- Russia situation will worsen

I shorted bitcoin (MBT futs) here and there but it eats up soo much margin on IBKR so I closed them, also because Russia situation might be bullish on crypto (not sure about this though).

Long time view on crypto is bearish. too many useless projects too high market cap. that's why I short FB as well. My guess is bubble will crash and market caps evaporate. At the end only small percentage of viable projects/coins will prevail. Investors money lost can be viewed as money spent on building crypto infrastructure for the future, similar to dotcom investors losing their money building the internet post year 2000.
 
What's your trading frequency? I assume you don't hold that kind of exposure for long. The reason I'm asking is because macro factors like those you mention will take a while to play out, some longer than others.

How long have you been trading with these parameters? I know that kind of leverage can be manageable for a while but I would guess you would be taken out after a bad streak eventually (sorry for spreading pessimism, it's just my way :p). Do you have capped stops (like enabled by options)?

Anyway, will be an interesting read!
 
Last edited:
Snuskpelle said:
What's your trading frequency? I assume you don't hold that kind of exposure for long. The reason I'm asking is because macro factors like those you mention will take a while to play out, some longer than others.

I know that kind of leverage can be manageable for a while but you will likely be taken out by a bad streak after a few months. How long have you been trading with these parameters?
More...
Generally, positions are held from a few hours to a week.
Occasionally I switch sides too (maybe one day out of a week I'd actually go long). But most of the time I'm short between 2-6 NQ futs. I lower my exposure a bit before I sleep.

I started trading more aggressively since early last year. Had some non-trading related income that enabled me to trade this size financially and mentally.

No automated stops at all, I guess my broker IBKR does it for me if things really go south quickly lol.

Yes I'm aware of the risk, thanks for the warning :D. And it does feel like gambling but I still want to do it, at least for now.
 
NAV: 3.43M HKD

Going to sleep now. Overnight position larger than usual:

short 6 NQ futs (-13M HKD exposure)
short 2 ES futs (-3.4M)
short 1000 FB (-1.6M)
short 4 HSI futs (-4.5M)
 
TA wise I think it's a very nice short right now, NQ at 14190.

but it concerns me why market hasnt shown much weaknesses these 3 days.

anyway i think downside potential > upside so im happy being short here. lets see how it goes. i should lower my leverage though..
 
NAV 3.90M HKD

Overnight positions
-6 NQ (-13M)
-2 ES (-3.3M)
-2 HSI (-2.2M)
-1000 FB (-1.6M)
+800 BIDU (1M)

Great profits today. I think there's more room to drop so keeping some shorts overnight.

Also bot some BIDU today. Stocks are meant for a longer holding period, but it's pretty insignificant in relative exposure so I won't say too much about it. Overall I like Chinese stocks in terms of value investing. Tencent and BABA too.
 
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