Believezz's overleveraged Trading Journal

[Laissez Faire]

I've had ~50% weekly PNL swings recently. So this should be entertaining for you guys.

I'll try to post my overnight positions every day.

Questions welcomed.

Impressive numbers and nice account size!

Did you build your account through trading?

With 50 % PNL swings your risk of ruin is fairly high. I imagine you know that. Is that a risk you're accepting knowingly with this account or was that more of an outlier event?

 

[believezz]

Did you build your account through trading?

Thanks Laissez Faire!
2M are my own capital and 3M are from profits.

I started trading personally 10 years ago where I blew up my entire 250K account first year shorting index puts. Then not much activity after that due to jobs being busy, and they had restrictions on PA trading.

Then I quit my job late 2019, and trading activity picked up a little. I was pretty even the last 2 years, made some money from stocks lost money shorting NQ here and there, and then came this year.

With 50 % PNL swings your risk of ruin is fairly high. I imagine you know that. Is that a risk you're accepting knowingly with this account or was that more of an outlier event?

Yes I'm aware. I usually scale up when I'm winning and down when I'm losing (both daily and long term), so it kinda creates a convexity payoff, but the drawback is I'll lose money when market is choppy. Also, I'll start lowering my portfolio variance now, I think.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 5.18M HKD (-300K deposits)

Long some Lean Hogs today.
Added to MCL GC and EUR.

Besides NQ, I must also watch MCL GC and PL carefully as they're increasingly correlated now and could all go south on improving war news. These 3 positions could easily lead to -500K overnight loss. Maybe close some before I sleep, or set alerts.

But one of my fundamental theme was war worsening so I'm happy with these positions at the moment.

 

[believezz]

I also kept trading NQ in and out leading to some losses. Most likely over-trading due to fear of losing my gains, especially when I keep anchoring to the new NAV highs.

Some bad habits and biases here I think, I'll reflect on this later.

 

[Laissez Faire]

2M are my own capital and 3M are from profits.

That's great. Well done!

Yes I'm aware. I usually scale up when I'm winning and down when I'm losing (both daily and long term), so it kinda creates a convexity payoff, but the drawback is I'll lose money when market is choppy. Also, I'll start lowering my portfolio variance now, I think.

Sounds good.

Besides NQ, I must also watch MCL GC and PL carefully as they're increasingly correlated now and could all go south on improving war news. These 3 positions could easily lead to -500K overnight loss. Maybe close some before I sleep, or set alerts.

But one of my fundamental theme was war worsening so I'm happy with these positions at the moment.

No stops on those positions...?

The indices looks heavy from here, but I agree that any positive news at all could cause the mother of all rallies. Opposite with commodities.

On the flip side this situation could get worse still...

 

[believezz]

That's great. Well done!

Thank you!

No stops on those positions...?

Maybe it works differently for different people, but I've always preferred closing positions manually than to set strict stop loss levels, as I believe optimal exits should be dynamic adjusting to new information instead of being one static price.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 4.62M HKD (-300K deposits)

NQ and Oil just had a big move against my positions and here are the new numbers. (Was down 580K at one point).

Fortunately I closed some NQ before the move, and then shorted again at higher level. Reduced the damage a little.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Maybe it works differently for different people, but I've always preferred closing positions manually than to set strict stop loss levels, as I believe optimal exits should be dynamic adjusting to new information instead of being one static price.

As long as you don't take another 50% drawdown on your beautiful account I won't object to that.

Not using stops at all in liquid instruments seems like a strategy that will bite you in the tail sooner or later, though. But who am I to teach you...

It looked like a decent attempt to stage a double bottom / higher low on the US indices today, but sellers appear to be in control still.

 

[believezz]

NAV: 5.28M (-300K deposits)

Another good day. Recouped mid-day losses and end in the greens. Not sleeping yet so currently still -12 NQ.

 

[believezz]

Not using stops at all in liquid instruments seems like a strategy that will bite you in the tail sooner or later, though.

You are probably right. I'll start thinking about placing mandatory stops.

But who am I to teach you...

Please don't say that, we're all equals here sharing thoughts and helping everyone improve. I am far from any trading guru.

If anything, it's more like I'm learning from everyone's questions and feedback.