"Bear market over in October" -- Michael Hartnet, BOA

notagain said:
Might be over after Nov.8 if Dems lose the Senate. If Trump is made speaker of the House, the market will freak out.
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Hope the Dems lose. Seriously they haven't done anything ever since they took over. They failed on every single campaign promise that they have made so far. Vaccination rates by July 1st. Failed and failed miserably. Withdrawal from Afghanistan? Disastrous and humiliating. Now inflation is out of control due to the overdistribution of stimulus packages. Market is in turmoil as Feds is desperately trying to fix the shit that the Dems has left. Performance Russia and Ukraine War? Pathetic!!

Seriously if Trump comes back, at least the market would go up or at least has a higher chance of going up.
 
Scataphagos said:
Doesn't seem possible.

The bear market is/could be still in the "denial" stage. THAT might be over by October... followed by a sizeable rally (Wave 2 in EWT terms)... THAT to be followed by "bear market recognition".. Wave 3 down) is one of the scenarios that make the most sense to me.

The other scenario that makes the most sense (because I can't eliminate it technically at this time)... is that all of the decline has actually been a large "Wave 4 correction to the bull market upside from the Covid low". IF that turns out to be the case, the market will more-or-less at least test the highs and maybe significantly more... perhaps as much as SP 6000.

I'm not pounding the table on either, just suggesting players should keep both in mind until one scenario is eliminated (or maybe it will be something other and BOTH will be eliminated).

In the mean time, be a trader...
Buy Support
Sell Resistance
Chase Breakouts
Always use stops

Lots of profit potential trading the SP 3600-4800 "indecision range".

FWIW...
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paragraph 1: Agreed!

paragraph 2:
(1) Wave FORM is a very important part of wave structure. The eyeball look and feel should jive. Therefore Wave 4 and Wave 2 should jive in terms of eyeball look and feel. If the current entire drop from jan top is a Wave 4, it looks too lopsided to jive with the puny wave 2
So, disagree here
 
RedDuke said:
it does not matter. Speaker does not have to be elected in congress.
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Hmph.
Few and far between, but by god I learned something new at ET today. :thumbsup:

The Constitution does not require the speaker to be an incumbent member of the House of Representatives, although every speaker thus far has been.[4] The speaker is second in the United States presidential line of succession, after the vice president and ahead of the president pro tempore of the Senate.[2]
 
Scataphagos said:
Some have noted, "Bear market doesn't end until the Fed Funds rate is > than the inflation rate". Currently, Fed Funds is what, 3.25%? Inflation 8.3% minimum. Can we do the math?
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Also possible is that the Fed blinks at some point far short of 2% inflation. But an October bottom seems like a pipe dream. IMO we will need to see far more of a capitulative event, this bear market is so far only slightly worse than the occasional plunges we saw every 2-3 years throughout the 2010s.
 
TheDawn said:
the market won't start to go up or stop going down until the Fed stops raising rates.
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Ha! I don't agree with OverNight on anything politically, but I agree completely here. The entire market is driven / manipulated by Fed printing and PPT buying.
 
margin_gamble said:
paragraph 2:
(1) Wave FORM is a very important part of wave structure. The eyeball look and feel should jive. Therefore Wave 4 and Wave 2 should jive in terms of eyeball look and feel. If the current entire drop from jan top is a Wave 4, it looks too lopsided to jive with the puny wave 2
So, disagree here
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In EWT, according to the "rule of alternation", wave 2 and wave 4 will each take a different form.
 
Scataphagos said:
In EWT, according to the "rule of alternation", wave 2 and wave 4 will each take a different form.
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Was not speaking about the rule of Alternation.

Was speaking about the eyeballed FORM SIZE only!!! The eyeballed form size for Wave 2 and 4 should be more or less approximately similar in size, therefore pleasing to the eye and when inspected closer will be found to obey the Fibopnacci spectrum of 61.8% or 38.2% = supremely pleasing to the eye to behold. Waves are beautiful things, not monstosities out of whack. This fits in with Robert's spectacular pdf book called "Beautiful Pictures"


If we suppose that Wave is in prgress from Jan high, it is alredy a visualmonstosity copared to the minute Wave 2 .............. focussing only on the Corona March 23rd low to Jan 4 top as the WVE we are analyzing.
 
margin_gamble said:
Was not speaking about the rule of Alternation.

Was speaking about the eyeballed FORM SIZE only!!! The eyeballed form size for Wave 2 and 4 should be more or less approximately similar in size, therefore pleasing to the eye and when inspected closer will be found to obey the Fibopnacci spectrum of 61.8% or 38.2% = supremely pleasing to the eye to behold. Waves are beautiful things, not monstosities out of whack. This fits in with Robert's spectacular pdf book called "Beautiful Pictures"


If we suppose that Wave is in prgress from Jan high, it is alredy a visualmonstosity copared to the minute Wave 2 .............. focussing only on the Corona March 23rd low to Jan 4 top as the WVE we are analyzing.
More...


Furthermore the drop from Jan 4 to June 16 is a 5-wave move. This cannot represent a Wave 4 which is inherently a corrective wave i.e. zig zag or triangle or complex pattern. But it cannot be only a 5-wave move. If we allow this pattern to develp into a Wave 4 as you believe it could be a "4" then we are talking about a heck of a lot m ore of sideways action to create a trainagle or sideways pattern.

Either way the structure would be a monstrosity compared to the puny Wave 2 that began 9/2/2020
 
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