"Bear market over in October" -- Michael Hartnet, BOA

[margin_gamble]

The other scenario that makes the most sense (because I can't eliminate it technically at this time)... is that all of the decline has actually been a large "Wave 4 correction to the bull market upside from the Covid low". IF that turns out to be the case, the market will more-or-less at least test the highs and maybe significantly more... perhaps as much as SP 6000.

Are you still favoring this scenario? Reason I ask is because if the drop from Top is a Wave 4, then pls note that Wave 4 ended yesterday in the Price territory of Wave 1. Robert Prechtor would frown on this and not allow it!

But me? I'm easy going, I can tolerate all sorts of violations of the Elliott Rules

Just my 2 centavos

 

[Wide Tailz]

Time for a bounce?

 

[Scataphagos]

Are you still favoring this scenario? Reason I ask is because if the drop from Top is a Wave 4, then pls note that Wave 4 ended yesterday in the Price territory of Wave 1. Robert Prechtor would frown on this and not allow it!

But me? I'm easy going, I can tolerate all sorts of violations of the Elliott Rules

Just my 2 centavos

I never was favoring this count... just couldn't eliminate it (yet).

The count is rarely clear (at least to me) until close to the end of a pattern. Easy to see the action from the top as "nearly completed, 5 waves down". IF that's the case, then that is/could be "Wave 1 Down" of the bear and argues for much further down and much longer time.

 

[margin_gamble]

Can Elliot wave predict what Putin will do next or what happens with inflation?

Yes it can & does but nobody believes it becaue Elliotticians do it with alternates

It won't tell you what time Putin will eat breakfast but it will tell you the general environ ......... case in point ............ when Putin attacked YOu-Crane on the 24th Feb and every mother's son threw sanctions at him, only I and perhaps Vlade knew that the US Dollar was topping against the Rouble and that the sanctions would all fail. Rouble would best King dollar


See for yourselves ................ perfect Fibonacci hits at 423.6% and 161.8%


Vlade's Rouble is kickin ass

 

[margin_gamble]

I never was favoring this count... just couldn't eliminate it (yet).

The count is rarely clear (at least to me) until close to the end of a pattern. Easy to see the action from the top as "nearly completed, 5 waves down". IF that's the case, then that is/could be "Wave 1 Down" of the bear and argues for much further down and much longer time.

Yeah, you are right, my apologies, you did say "just couldn't eliminate it"

On a different note, I hope you will remember to my premise that it cannot be a wave 4, not because of the law of alternation but just simply becasue of FORM, i.e. it looks to lopsided compared to the puny Wave 1. I actually learned this tidbit from Robert hisself when he chided me with, "if you don't see aesthetics in FORM, your count is incorrect!"

Lately Steve Hochberg and gang have ben coming out with "public notices" .............. why? Because thee 1000 point bear rallies are rattling their subscriber base

 

[Nine_Ender]

"Bear market over in October" -- Michael Hartnet, BOA

-Says somebody who is desperately hoping the market will go up and go up soon. He was probably long and didn't get a chance to get out before the drop or went long thinking it will be over soon before Powell made the hawkish comment and now he's stuck.

It's just interesting just tow days ago that BoA predicted that S&P will hit new low and told their clients to mind November 15. So if they predict the bear market to be over in October, why would they still need to tell their clients to mind November 15? https://www.sharecast.com/news/brok...lients-to-mind-the-15-november--10742682.html

Anyway I read a comment from @Overnight that the market won't start to go up or stop going down until the Fed stops raising rates. I agree with him.

Seems to me you are far more desperate to see markets go down. Markets don't care about all your past mistakes or whatever losses you are chasing now. A ton of traders thought March 2020 ( or March 2009 ) would be far worse and linger for a long, long time. If you owned the very top in early 2020 and simply held until now you'd still be ahead. If you added at any point you are doing better then that. If you sat out part of the crash you are WAY ahead.

So many traders botched up the 2009-2019 bull royally because they thought they were smarter then markets. The opportunity cost of continually trying to short it was massive, never mind those who actually lost money doing so. At some point markets will bottom and that cycle will repeat for many people. Investors will do fine unless they listen to the media or day traders that get real loud and aggressive often at the worst times possible.

 

[Scataphagos]

Yeah, you are right, my apologies, you did say "just couldn't eliminate it"

On a different note, I hope you will remember to my premise that it cannot be a wave 4, not because of the law of alternation but just simply becasue of FORM, i.e. it looks to lopsided compared to the puny Wave 1. I actually learned this tidbit from Robert hisself when he chided me with, "if you don't see aesthetics in FORM, your count is incorrect!"

Lately Steve Hochberg and gang have ben coming out with "public notices" .............. why? Because thee 1000 point bear rallies are rattling their subscriber base

I wonder if today's high volatility doesn't at least extend some of EW's parameters. When Precter and Frost did their work, market's were not under the same influence like today.

 

[margin_gamble]

Yes it can & does but nobody believes it becaue Elliotticians do it with alternates

It won't tell you what time Putin will eat breakfast but it will tell you the general environ ......... case in point ............ when Putin attacked YOu-Crane on the 24th Feb and every mother's son threw sanctions at him, only I and perhaps Vlade knew that the US Dollar was topping against the Rouble and that the sanctions would all fail. Rouble would best King dollar


See for yourselves ................ perfect Fibonacci hits at 423.6% and 161.8%


Vlade's Rouble is kickin ass



View attachment 297466

Read quote again and then with eye on the question, "does elliottwave predict what Rouble will do next?" .......... dig this ...............

see the loooooong neck on the topping candlestick in March 2022? OK, so how the heck did I know taht the correction low of teh USD-RUB would end near the 200-month ema? Because a Wave A almost always goes into the vicinity of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree.

What/who tells me this? Why of course it is the magnificente elliottwave

And then look at what else it is telling me? Sooon Joe Biden and gang will be dancing in the streets when the USD-RUB climbs north meaning that the Rouble is weakening. Elliott tells me this too. This weakenng of the rouble is a Wave B northbound. It could take months.

Then when Joe Biden is laffffing his ass of at Vlade's misfortunes with the Rouble, the USD-RUB will reverse into Wave C down and Vlade will once more kick ass like there is no manana




Yeah baby, Elliottwave tells us a whole lotta stuff, mostly very cool stuff like when to expect WAR, when to know you are wrong in your trade and should exit (I'm guilty of violation of this with my recent Euro trade, a goddamn fool I was)


God, do I love it so!

Long live WAVE Theory

 

[margin_gamble]

Soon other theories will come along and profess to be the new champ. But Wave Theory has stood the test of time and like Karl Malone, almost always delivers the Mail and when it appears it fails to do so its only becasue the mailman delivering the mail is a jackass like I was in the euro trade and got onthe wrong side and suffered gobs of lost time

First the Whiskey run out, then the beer run out, then the peanuts run out and then when the soft drinks run out the entire place goes to Hell

 

[margin_gamble]

I wonder if today's high volatility doesn't at least extend some of EW's parameters. When Precter and Frost did their work, market's were not under the same influence like today.

Spot on, in fact Steve is trying to address just this ............ but you know the public is hard to please when these humongous raallies are rttling them.

For me ther eis no problem with the nature of markets today w.r.t. the high volatility. The Wave Principle is elastic and accommodates all of it.

And here is esp. something soooo bloody magnificent about the WAVE Principle ......... this BEAR is correcting 1720 - 2022 = hugest BEAR EVER. Despite this, the wavecounts are all in order and easily accommodated by the PRINCIPLE.

When it appears to fail it is not becasue IT has failed rather I or we have failed as practitioners.

More validation about WAVES? Here you go .....

Heart pulses are waves .......... ventricles and auricles deliver blood in waves
Brain operates on Waves
Love operates in and on Waves
Inspiration comes in waves
Devotion, when it arrives, rests on one's sholder as a soft, gentle wave of mizik
Astro Physics is all Waves
Aerodynamaics is all Waves
Nuclear Physics is all Waves

and the biggest baddest Wave of them all that is soooo real to us because we flock there on weekends is the


O C E A N Waves


There's a place that I come from on the east side of Paradise
When the mountains and the sea call out to me, come on over