"Bear market over in October" -- Michael Hartnet, BOA

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Doesn't seem possible.

The bear market is/could be still in the "denial" stage. THAT might be over by October... followed by a sizeable rally (Wave 2 in EWT terms)... THAT to be followed by "bear market recognition".. Wave 3 down) is one of the scenarios that make the most sense to me.

The other scenario that makes the most sense (because I can't eliminate it technically at this time)... is that all of the decline has actually been a large "Wave 4 correction to the bull market upside from the Covid low". IF that turns out to be the case, the market will more-or-less at least test the highs and maybe significantly more... perhaps as much as SP 6000.

I'm not pounding the table on either, just suggesting players should keep both in mind until one scenario is eliminated (or maybe it will be something other and BOTH will be eliminated).

In the mean time, be a trader...
Buy Support
Sell Resistance
Chase Breakouts
Always use stops

Lots of profit potential trading the SP 3600-4800 "indecision range".

FWIW...
 
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Scataphagos said:
I doubt it.
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I looked into Elliot Wave a couple years ago and came to the conclusion that it's too subjective to use. Or at least I could not figure out how to code it into an algorithm that could be back-tested. This might be a lazy excuse, but if it works so well, then why isn't everyone using it?
 
ET180 said:
I looked into Elliot Wave a couple years ago and came to the conclusion that it's too subjective to use. Or at least I could not figure out how to code it into an algorithm that could be back-tested. This might be a lazy excuse, but if it works so well, then why isn't everyone using it?
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You are correct on all... but your points don't make EWT worthless. It's actually in wide-spread use (as "one of the tools") all through the investing community including high-profile professional money management.
 
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OMG.
The Bond Market has been a tailwind for equities nearly for four (4) decades.
Which is a timeframe that very much also coincides with longevity of a career.
Which means there are very few on Wall Street who have experienced the wrath of a Bear Market in Bonds.
The TA in me says we will easily see a 6 coupon before this is over.
 
"Bear market over in October" -- Michael Hartnet, BOA

-Says somebody who is desperately hoping the market will go up and go up soon. He was probably long and didn't get a chance to get out before the drop or went long thinking it will be over soon before Powell made the hawkish comment and now he's stuck.

It's just interesting just tow days ago that BoA predicted that S&P will hit new low and told their clients to mind November 15. So if they predict the bear market to be over in October, why would they still need to tell their clients to mind November 15? https://www.sharecast.com/news/brok...lients-to-mind-the-15-november--10742682.html

Anyway I read a comment from @Overnight that the market won't start to go up or stop going down until the Fed stops raising rates. I agree with him.
 
countryBoy641 said:
OMG.
The Bond Market has been a tailwind for equities nearly for four (4) decades.
Which is a timeframe that very much also coincides with longevity of a career.
Which means there are very few on Wall Street who have experienced the wrath of a Bear Market in Bonds.
The TA in me says we will easily see a 6 coupon before this is over.
More...

Some have noted, "Bear market doesn't end until the Fed Funds rate is > than the inflation rate". Currently, Fed Funds is what, 3.25%? Inflation 8.3% minimum. Can we do the math?
 
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