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Baruch's Forex System Journal
- Thread starter Baruch
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Quote from Baruch:
We will have non-farm payrolls from France 6.45 GMT. Prior: 0,1.
And Euro-zone GDP 9.00 GMT. Prior: 0.3. Consensus: 0.4.
The big issue today is US Consumer Price Index 12.30 GMT.
Last month it jumped to 0.5. I didn't worry the FED, but if it jumps two monts in a row? I think so - because that means inflation. And a rate hike very soon.
So a surprise in CPI could really move the markets! Consensus are 0.3, and 0.2 for CPI ex food and energy.
Later today - 13.50 GMT - we will also have Michigan Consumer Confidence. Consensus: 96.5. Prior: 94.2. Well, good job reports should mean better consumer confidence - or what?
Quote from Baruch:
Any trades?
There are a few I'm looking at, but the charts aren't really showing clear signals. Or, they hadn't when I made my potential list for the night which I'll update in a bit.
The three I'm looking at right now:
1) long EUR/USD
2) short USD/JPY
3) short GBP/CHF
There are a few other possibilities as well, but I think I'm going to wait for the session to unfold a little; maybe it'll clear things up a bit.
Quote from Baruch:
Well done. I like your riding the winners. I wish I had not gone out of my short with "only" a 30 pips gain.
Short usdjpy? Maybe.
30 pips out of 110 pips? That's not OK. I think I will think a little about my trailing stop...
Maybe I should just look at the charts instead?
Quote from Baruch:
30 pips out of 110 pips? That's not OK. I think I will think a little about my trailing stop...
Maybe I should just look at the charts instead?
To me, stops are a double edged sword. I'd personally prefer going without them, but until I get more of a cushion under me and more confidence in predicting direction, I'm using them; albeit very wide (frankly, stupid wide) stops.
One possible way to setup the trailing stop is to take the high (if short) or low (if long) of the previous, or "x" number of bar(s) on whatever time frame chart you're using.
Quote from Baruch:
The big issue today is US Consumer Price Index 12.30 GMT.
Last month it jumped to 0.5. I didn't worry the FED, but if it jumps two monts in a row? I think so - because that means inflation. And a rate hike very soon.
So a surprise in CPI could really move the markets! Consensus are 0.3, and 0.2 for CPI ex food and energy.
Later today - 13.50 GMT - we will also have Michigan Consumer Confidence. Consensus: 96.5. Prior: 94.2. Well, good job reports should mean better consumer confidence - or what?
According to FED watcher John Berry from Bloomberg FED will raise FF rate 0.25% at the late June meeting - because of strong job data and faster price rises in the latest inflation reports.
Yes, CPI today is very important.
Quote from SteveL91:
To me, stops are a double edged sword. I'd personally prefer going without them, but until I get more of a cushion under me and more confidence in predicting direction, I'm using them; albeit very wide (frankly, stupid wide) stops.
One possible way to setup the trailing stop is to take the high (if short) or low (if long) of the previous, or "x" number of bar(s) on whatever time frame chart you're using.
Thanks, Steve. Yes, it is a big problem. We don't want to lose our profit, but we also wants more pips. We need to "believe" more in our trades - and that's why we need to know what's happening. And WHY.
P.S. Any trades today?
Quote from SteveL91:
There are a few I'm looking at, but the charts aren't really showing clear signals. Or, they hadn't when I made my potential list for the night which I'll update in a bit.
The three I'm looking at right now:
1) long EUR/USD
2) short USD/JPY
3) short GBP/CHF
There are a few other possibilities as well, but I think I'm going to wait for the session to unfold a little; maybe it'll clear things up a bit.
OK. Why short USD/JPY?
Quote from Baruch:
OK. Why short USD/JPY?
Looking at the various charts, it looks like the upward price action is losing momentum as shown by the MACD rolling over and the ADX (which is a measure of trend strength) dying; at the same time, DI+ is heading downwards while DI- is heading upwards, and it looks like there will be a cross. The slow stochastics are also heading downwards. The price has been moving sideways with a slight downward bias over the past few hours and it looks like this downward movement is starting to pick up some steam (I'm currently looking at the hourly chart).
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